150k hands graph

[DocMartin]

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I guess it's firefox's fault then.

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You are blocking images from photobucket (probably because of someone's gay avatar). Right click OP's avatar and unblock them to see the graphs.

[Willluck]

At least we know you aren't lying. I would probably quit, if not for life at least for a month or so.

[jph0424]

Would you post your detailed stats? I am pretty sure you would have some obvious holes in your game we could maybe help you with.

[gildwulf]

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At least we know you aren't lying. I would probably quit, if not for life at least for a month or so.

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I hope this isn't advice, because if it is it's terrible.

[tansoku]

Looks like you are tilting really bad. That last downswing looks like full blown 'raise out of frustration' tilt. Something like -500BB in 10K hands with nary a bounce up has some bad playing in there somewhere...
Stop playing.
Go into PT, go to the preferences and filter it so you get the hands from when that last downswing started.
Go to the games tab, get all, and sort by NET from - to +.
Now replay all of your losing hands in a row.
You should be able to tell rather quickly where the problems are, or are not.
Don't start playing again until you find the leak(s).

If you find a lot of 'what was I thinking' type hands, it's tilt (obviously because you were not thinking). Next step is to determine what it takes to get you tilting, and recognize it. Going back to that particular session and replaying it might help to spot just what lead to your tilting. If it's 3 bad beats in a row, then force yourself to quit when that happens because you are far more likely to lose more by tilting than get a miracle run of cards to pull you out. If you are still thinking about how that moron rivered you 3 hands ago, you need to stop playing until you are not thinking about it. The game will be there an hour from now, and tomorrow as well...

[sweetjazz]

Likely you are not as good as your start suggested nor as bad as your recent results suggest. However, it does look like you are a marginal winner at best and probably a break-even or slightly losing player at best in higher limits.

I don't necessarily blame you for moving up when you were running good, as it is easy to become convinced that you are a good player when your results are that good to start with. And I don't necessarily blame you for feeling frustrated now that everything seems to be going wrong.

Here's what you should do:
(1) Honestly assess whether you have made significant changes to your game after your results started to go downhill, and figure out if they have been -EV moves.

(2) Go to Small Stakes and Microlimits forums and read hand posts. Think about what advice you would give in that situation and then read what others have to say. If there is a continual difference of opinion, chances are that it is you who doesn't understand the game well enough. (On the other hand, it is okay to disagree on a small percent of the hands.)

(3) Try to determine what leaks you have in your game. Do you go on tilt easily after a few bad beats? Do you overplay weak hands? Do you underplay strong hands? Are you too loose preflop? Do you chase weak draws too far postflop?

(4) Hopefully you are playing poker as a hobby. Work on trying to play the game as best as you can, and try not to worry about the results. Worry about whether you are making the right plays on every hand. If you hit 3 straight flushes in a session but miss a lot of key value bets, chalk that down as a bad session even if you are up 50 BB. If you get outdrawn over and over by 2- and 3-outers but are making solid decisions throughout, chalk that up as a good session even if you are down 50 BB.

Poker is not easy, but it is very rewarding when you continually improve your game. You won't always see it in the short-term results, but your next 150K hands will have better results if you dedicate yourself to making improvements.

Finally, I agree with people who suggest you start out at the microlimits again. I'd start with 0.5/1 again for at least 10K (not 100K) hands. Move up a limit when you are properly bankrolled AND you feel justifiably confident that you are playing significantly better than the other players at that limit. I'd play at least 10K hands at each limit, and keep in mind that short-term results can be very deceiving. You have to be able to assess your play independent of the results over short stretches.

[gildwulf]

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Finally, I agree with people who suggest you start out at the microlimits again. I'd start with 0.5/1 again for at least 10K (not 100K) hands. Move up a limit when you are properly bankrolled AND you feel justifiably confident that you are playing significantly better than the other players at that limit. I'd play at least 10K hands at each limit, and keep in mind that short-term results can be very deceiving.

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I don't agree with this advice. This is basically what he did...spend 10k at each limit and jump up regardless of the results because he "felt confident in his play". Also, while I agree that being results conscious is a bad idea and that short-term results don't matter much, they are a good indicator (over 20-100K hands) of whether you are a winning player or not.

What he needs is to learn discipline more than anything else. He lacks discipline and, most likely, bankroll management skills. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say he probably lacks the ability (or is simply ignoring it) to determine whether he is playing significantly better than his opponents. Honestly, even if he can beat the 10/20 right now (which I'm almost positive he can't) I wouldn't recommend him playing it.

What he needs is a kick in the ass for moving up too quickly; he needs to grind it out (from .5/1 to 5/10) in order to master patience and discipline. He needs to sit back and honestly assess his play at a comfortable level (I would say 3/6...it's easy enough but not too bankroll threatening) and have other people critique his play on a regular basis until he learns how to do it himself.

[Ricardido]

the way you are playing .50/1 and 15/30 worries me somewhat

[sweetjazz]

I did say he should feel justifiably confident that he is significantly better than his opponents, and I agree that he likely did not stop to think about this nearly hard enough the first time through. (I'm not set to write off the OP as lacking discipline as I have seen many good players on this forum admit that they thought the game was easier than it is before they experienced their first prolonged downswing.)

So I don't think our advice is really that different. Maybe I didn't word it right. The first time up, OP moved up because he was winning money and figured he must be playing a lot better than everyone else (though likely he was not). Now, he should move up when he finally understands how to play a lot better than everyone else at that limit. Ideally, that would be regardless of how much money he has won or lost, but obviously bankroll considerations are important too.

It has taken a long time for OP to question whether poker is as easy as he originally thought it was, but I am hopeful that he will take the chance to honestly assess that it is not and dedicate himself to mastering this tough and sometimes brutal, but ultimately rewarding, game.

[gildwulf]

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OP moved up because he was winning money and figured he must be playing a lot better than everyone else (though likely he was not).

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He was losing at 1/2 and 3/6.