Possibility of losing 100 BB's in one session?

[SA125]

I don't know about 100 in 8 hrs, but my last session at 10-20 I lost 35 BB's in 4-1/2 hrs. Cold? Nah. Deep freeze.

It was a sunny day and I would have bet that if I went outside and walked across the street, it would have been raining just on me.

The highlight was my 7777 getting straight flushed. He bet, I raised and he called. Didn't even know he had it. Unreal. Stuck $700 playing decent, not excellent, and my quads losing to daydreamers.

Went for $300 more, got hot and in the next 1-1/2 hr won all back but $100. Time was up and had to go. Not your average day at the tables.

So can you lose that much even when playing pretty well? I thought I was going.

BADBEATPOLICE - sorry about this post. If that cop has a problem with it, she can let me know. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Wayfare]

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A player with a true win rate of +1/BB hour but variance of 20/BB hr (entirely possible in a game this LAG) will lose $4000 or more in an 8-hour session around 2.8 percent of the time. That's not a huge percentage but s*it happens when you log a lot of hours. I've had parallel bad runs in LAGro online games and while I have some leaks, I'm a good player and a substantial long-term winner.

You are radically underestimating the degree of variance instrinic to the game, and especially a loose and aggressive game like this one.

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There is a similar post in the pshycology forum, and I'll give the same type of response.

There is not a chance you took 8 hours worth of bad beats, lost 100 big bets and played optimally. Your decision not to leave before having such a big loss alone is cause to believe that somewhere along the line your edge was gone.

I don't know your play, so I can't judge exactly how each hand went down, but I guarentee that if some of the real experts on this forum were sweating you they'd catch a dozen leaks. Stick around this forum for a while and in a year or so look back at this post and you'll realize that I'm right.

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According to the standard deviation rule shouldn't one's standard deviation be within 3 of the mean approximately 99.75% of the time? Intuitively this math seemed fishy and I checked it here:

http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Standard_deviation

[mmcd]

Yes its definately possible even if you are playing well (esp. in a wild game) but more than likely you got stuck like 1500-2500 (can EASILY happen in a wild game) and you tilted off the rest. Not necesesarily full-blown jam-it-up tilt, but tilt just the same.

[Nate tha' Great]

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A player with a true win rate of +1/BB hour but variance of 20/BB hr (entirely possible in a game this LAG) will lose $4000 or more in an 8-hour session around 2.8 percent of the time. That's not a huge percentage but s*it happens when you log a lot of hours. I've had parallel bad runs in LAGro online games and while I have some leaks, I'm a good player and a substantial long-term winner.

You are radically underestimating the degree of variance instrinic to the game, and especially a loose and aggressive game like this one.

[ QUOTE ]
There is a similar post in the pshycology forum, and I'll give the same type of response.

There is not a chance you took 8 hours worth of bad beats, lost 100 big bets and played optimally. Your decision not to leave before having such a big loss alone is cause to believe that somewhere along the line your edge was gone.

I don't know your play, so I can't judge exactly how each hand went down, but I guarentee that if some of the real experts on this forum were sweating you they'd catch a dozen leaks. Stick around this forum for a while and in a year or so look back at this post and you'll realize that I'm right.

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According to the standard deviation rule shouldn't one's standard deviation be within 3 of the mean approximately 99.75% of the time? Intuitively this math seemed fishy and I checked it here:

http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Standard_deviation

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I know what freaking standard deviation is. The player with these stats will not lose $4000 in *one* hour almost ever. But this is an 8-hour session.

[ike]

The point is not whether or not its possible to lose 100BBs in 8 hours playing perfectly. It definetly is and some of the number people on the board have already looked at the probabilities in detail. The point is that its very unlikely that you would lose 100BBs in your first 8 hours of 20/40 if you were playing great and very likely that you were not in fact playing as well as you thought your first time in a higher limit game. I'd also be surprised if you didn't tilt at some point during the session. I'm usually pretty good about not tilting but I think I'd have a difficult time dropping 8 racks and continuing to play well. Just out of curiosity, what made you leave? Had you set an 8 hour time limit or did you have somewhere to be or did you just lose every dollar in your wallet? If its the last of those, I'm pretty sure you were on tilt.

[Senor Choppy]

It's true that player error is more likely the cause of big losses than normal variance, (at least in the situation described), but when you say "There are plenty of ways to avoid a loss that big.", that's not always the case. You have to prepare for 100 bb losses eventually, it's a fact of life.