Yet Another Pot Odds Question

[Dave H.]

I, for one, totally agree that some good was done. Even the arguments (discussions?) were enlightening! The thread entitled "Confused about odds in Holdem" in the Probability forum continued the discussion at length if anyone is interested...especially beginners like me! I started out very confused and feel like I could teach the concept now (well, almost!).

[Grail]

I have 1 problem with using effective odds. You never really know what is going to happen on the turn. What if the flop betters bets out and someone in front of you, or worse yet in back of you raises? What if the flop better doesn't bet?

It just seems 'safer' to me to make my calls 1 street at a time and leave myself more flexable to the fast changing SS tables. This may be less of an issue at higher stakes when people play a little more predictable.

[hustalasta]

I have 1 problem with using effective odds. You never really know what is going to happen on the turn.

You never really know what card is going to come on the turn, but you are making a prediction on how often a good card will come. How often will the table you are at make an effective odds call profitable? What if everyone checks through on the turn (have you never seen this happen on a low limit table?). If something happens outside of your effective odds calculation then you need to re-evaluate.

[Mangatang]

Hey guys. I've been out of town on business for a few days and just got back to read all the responses.

Grail, you are correct when you say that it seems "safer" to use the odds of the next card. Actually, to be even more correct, you should say that it is the more conservative approach. Yes, you may miss out on a few slightly +EV draws, but you will never be calling incorrectly.

Another point that I think Cola is either misunderstanding or miscommunicating is what to do on the turn after you used effective odds to make your flop decision. On the turn, it's easy, you can use the 4:1 for the next card (plus whatever implied odds you think is suitable). If the current situation, with one card to come, tells you you should fold, then you SHOULD fold. It's not +EV to make an incorrect turn play, just to complete your flop assumption of seeing two cards. Once the turn card comes out, the past is the past. You can't go on just based off of the information that you had on the flop.

It's the reason you can't base a roulette bet off of the wheel's history. Yes it would be a very safe bet to say that the ball would land on red at least 1 out of the next 12 spins. But once the ball landed on black 11 times in a row, it is no more likely to land on red than black for the next roll.

It's the same thing in poker. On the turn, forget about any correct or wrong play you made to lead up to this point, just make the correct play now.

[Dave H.]

Funny you should have that problem. In my last post back to AngryCola (see the "Confused about Odds in Holdem" thread in the Probability Forum), who gave me a ton of advice on this topic, I raised this same issue. Playing in microlimits as a beginner, loose players abound and the assumptions that one uses with effective odds can be shattered easily by the next street. For me, it was almost as if I couldn't grasp the concept because I had a mental block that said "Can't be very useful to me". However, now that I finally understand what AngryCola had to practically "beat" into me (lol), I can see that they are just another tool. As I believe hustalasta mentioned, you would have to reevaluate on the next street if your assumptions get shattered. But, as was pointed out to me, if the texture of the game is such that your assumptions turn out to be correct often enough to make effective odds a useful tool, then NOT using them could cause you to miss profitable opportunities in those cases where using effective odds required a smaller pot size to bet or call.

Hope this helps.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Another point that I think Cola is either misunderstanding or miscommunicating is what to do on the turn after you used effective odds to make your flop decision. On the turn, it's easy, you can use the 4:1 for the next card (plus whatever implied odds you think is suitable).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong, and I bet even Dave could explain why to you at this point. I'm not confused about anything related to this issue. Your effective odds deal with the turn AND river cards! Not individual streets, no missing on the turn recalculation is required, etc, etc, etc. I've said that so many times I feel like Im talking to a brick wall. Effective odds deal with bets made on 2 card combinations, there is no splitting up the combination. That's what makes it a combination.

Effective odds deal with 2 card combinations, not single street probabilities. You are misunderstanding what effective odds are. You DO NOT re-evalute your decision on the turn when using effective odds, PERIOD. Plus, if you used effective odds on the flop, and then immediate odds on the turn (repeatedly and on purpose), you would be really f'ed up.

Again, and this is the last time I'm going to say it:

When you are dealing with effective odds, you are betting on a 2 card combination. Missing on the turn has NO RELEVANCE. If it does to you, then you must go back to using immediate pot odds. In that case then you shouldn't have been using effective odds on the flop in the first place. My post "Some numbers to chew on" deals with all of this. Thank you and goodnight. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

EDIT-
[ QUOTE ]
It's the reason you can't base a roulette bet off of the wheel's history. Yes it would be a very safe bet to say that the ball would land on red at least 1 out of the next 12 spins. But once the ball landed on black 11 times in a row, it is no more likely to land on red than black for the next roll.

It's the same thing in poker. On the turn, forget about any correct or wrong play you made to lead up to this point, just make the correct play now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess we should inform Mr. Sklansky that section of TOP is no longer needed. Thank you, Mangatang, I'm sure David will appreciate you pointing out how the effective odds section is useless, and will cause the next revision of TOP to exclude any mention of effective odds. The free card play is useless, because people are somehow now balls on a roulette wheel whose actions are somehow now completely random events as opposed to playing stles, etc. Thanks again, Mangatang. I had no idea my opponents were mindless roulette balls.

[Mangatang]

Now I know for sure that you are misunderstanding not only odds in general, but game theory too. You've got to understand that once you're at the turn, what you did before makes absolutely no difference. You don't continue on your draw, if you don't currently have the odds to do so, just to make your flop assumption correct.

Think about this.

I fully understand effective odds. I know that they are used on the flop when you have two cards to come, but that's the final place you use them. Once you get to the turn, there's only one card to come, so you need to be getting 4:1 for flush draw, 5:1 for an open-ender, and 11:1 for a gutshot (plus what ever implied odds you can estimate).

Cola, from your logic, you would say that the 12th spin of a roulette wheel, after it hit 11 blacks in a row, would be 11:1 in favor of hitting red. When in fact, it's still 1:1.

Can someon else help me explain it to Cola?

[AngryCola]

That is not the final place you use them. For the love of god, read the effective odds section of TOP. And reread my post as I do not think our opponents are roulette balls.

[AngryCola]

"Figuring effective odds may sound complicated, but it is a simple matter of addition. You add all the calls you will have to make, assuming you play to the end, to determine the total amount you will lose if you don't make your hand. Then compare this figure to the total amount you should win if you do make the hand. This total is the money in the pot at the moment plus all future bets you can expect to win, excluding your own future bets. Thus, if there is $100 in the pot at the moment and three more $20 betting rounds, you are getting $160-to-$40. When you think your opponent won't call on the end if your card hits, your effective odds would be reduced to something like $140-$40. If, on early betting rounds, these odds are greater than your chances of making your hand, you are correct to see the hand through to the end. If they are not, you should fold."

-David Sklansky TOP

Also, Mangatang, read my post "some numbers to chew on" If you still don't understand, I can't help you. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[AngryCola]

You know what, I'm tired of explaining this concept about 2 card combinations and effective odds over and over, and being called clueless by someone that tells me I should be using 2:1 on the flop, and then 4:1 on the turn. How completely ridiculous that is, unless you are all-in. I understand what I'm talking about, now Dave understands it too. You want to question whether or not you should USE effective odds, thats fine by me. But dont get confused about what they are. I'm done with this thread, have fun kiddies, but understand that I have no doubts what the differences are between immediate pot odds and effective odds.

You must use one or the other. NOT BOTH. I'm done, and I'm out. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]