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#1
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
[ QUOTE ]
you are not up againts the nut flush draw [/ QUOTE ] How did you come to that conclusion? Regards, Woodguy |
#2
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
Because of the action. The only person who COULD have the nut flush draw is the button. He conceivably could push there trying to win the pot with top pair and a flush draw, but I just can't see MP1 making that play. After the heros raise and the buttons all in. I put MP1 on a set, if not top set.
BTU, I think that if the button had the nut flush draw he would smooth call your raise in order to get an over call by MP1. Makes the pot bigger and justifies his drawing to the flush. But instead, he pushes trying to knock out draws and isolate the hero. Smells like a set to me. When MP1 rerereraised all in, it definitely feels like another set. Why would he want to have it heads up with the button when the button is all in? Unless he had a huge hand? AA. AKd is possible, and I would not be totally suprised if anyone of them had it, but I give it 80/20 that you are against two sets. |
#3
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
I see your reasoning, but everyone does not always play as you would, so to discount it totally is wrong.
You mention AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], since this is a limped pot, I'd expect to see A2-AT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] more than AK. Regards, Woodguy |
#4
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
Hand 1 - This is the type of flop that medium pairs love to put you on AK and try you on. If I'd seen the BB call and fold a lot I put in a 1/2 pot bet to rep the big pair, if he plays back and is strong I check and turn my gutshot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
If he leads the turn I may call depending on the turn card and the price, if an A or K turn I probably raise his lead, if he leads weak I may raise too. Hand 2 - Boy that looks nice. You have 27% pot equity if you are against a set and the nut flush draw/TP You have 30% equity if vs. twopair and nut flush draw/TP You have 47% equity if you are against 2 sets. You are calling 24.8K into a what will be a 98.6K main pot (with your chips) making your equity 24% of that pot. So you have the right equity to get involved in the main pot. Assuming MP1 will get all in with you the side pot will be 60K with you putting up 50% of the chips. If you are up against A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you have 31% equity If you are up against a set you have 42% equity. I don't think two pair puts in the 3rd raise on this flop so I won't include that. So, You have the right price for the main pot, but the wrong one for the significant side pot. I'm at work so I don't have time to do all the math, but air math shows its probably a slightly -EV move. Wicked freaking stack if you call and win both pots though. Folding leaves you with 100BB's, that's a nice stack still. Calling and losing both leaves you with 32BB's...not the end of the world. Calling and winning both gives you 197BB's, very nice. I think that this really depends on how you feel about playing with these various stacks vs. these opponents. I probably fold if I'm know I'm better than most, and call if I'm outclassed. Regards, Woodguy |
#5
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
(blind)
hand 1: ugh, i'd fold. if he had more chips then i'd say push/fold/call would all be ok. hand 2: i'd call. you have plenty of odds against a set, and even if someone has a bigger flush draw you have 6 outs. of course, if the Ad were on the board this would be much more appealing. |
#6
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
[ QUOTE ]
(blind) hand 1: ugh, i'd fold. if he had more chips then i'd say push/fold/call would all be ok. hand 2: i'd call. you have plenty of odds against a set, and even if someone has a bigger flush draw you have 6 outs . of course, if the Ad were on the board this would be much more appealing. [/ QUOTE ] He has 8; straight flush |
#7
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
hand 1, any reason to bet so much on the flop? he check-raises you even bigger, the bigger you bet, giving you in turn less FE if you decide to push
why not bet something like 6k? say he raises to 12k, gives you more FE if you push cause hes got more behind though with only 29k to start, even then hes got only like 13k behind a check-raise to 12k, so i dont like this either. just let it go. i think this is a good spot to check behind, but trying to take the pot right now isnt bad, but really no need to bet 8k. it's not like you'd bet 8k with AA, would you, on such a dry board? |
#8
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
Hand 1: The flop bet was too big, i like betting bigger on flops (i think i do, atleast), but here i went a bit overboard, oncee i did that though, i think it's a call (well a push). as woodguy said this is a flop that small-mid pairs decide to put me on AK, i really thought it looked like a pair, and bowski was doing some math about this hand last night and he came up with he has to have less than a pair of 9's 21% or more for it to be profitable. I think that happens. So yea, i pushed, villain showed 44. i hit one of my outs, and look pretty silly calling an allin with 8 high.
Hand 2: I was freaking out this hand, there was so much to consider and the pot was so distractingly big. After like 30 seconds i decided that it was probably bad, but i was going to call. Since then, i think i'm starting to think it was good. 8 outs no matter what (well unless one of them has the same straight draw and the other a pair + flush draw. that's a bad situation, but one that i dont think happens often). Anyways, button had a set of 4's, MP1 had AdKd. And the 4's caught quads.and again, i look silly calling two allins with 6 high. |
#9
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
oh crap I totally misread BBs stacksize on hand one, I hate the flop bet even more now
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#10
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Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)
WOW, looks like I had it exactly backwards! :-) The set of 4s does not suprise me, but AKs from MP1 does.
Question - did MP1 make a mistake by calling all in with TPTK and nut flush draw, if he KNEW he was up against a set? It feels wrong to me, but was hoping the math guys would help out here. Math guys? |
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