Me vs Scotty Nguyen

[2005]

this part of this thread is quite ridiculous

Gavin

[KenProspero]

I'm going to approach this somewhat differently than you did.

If I'm playing against Scotty Nguyen, my assumption is that he's better than I am. In fact, he's MUCH better than I am.

Though I may catch him on any one hand, if we play enough hands against each other, he's going to have all my chips.

Were it me playing, I'd figure I have one and only advantage, sitting to his left. He's betting before me almost all the time, therefore, I can get out of his way unless I have a monster.

I would not bluff this man, I would not get cute with this man and I'd probably fold hands against him that I'd play against most mere mortals.

If I get a hand I'm willing to play for all my chips, push em in.

My guess is that I'm due for some flaming for this response, but I honestly believe I can't out think or out play a world class player at this stage in my development. Surviving the pro and making my chips against the others seems the only way to survive in this tournament.

With respect to the specific hand.

Pre-flop, either check or bet it hard. Post flop -- unless I hit something, I'm outta there to any significant pressure.

[betgo]

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Push preflop.

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I like the preflop push. With KJs, you are only in trouble against AA-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ, and AJ. Since your opponent just completed, the only of those hands he is likely to have are AA-QQ. There is 1700 in the pot and you have 9000, so pushing in not that much of an overbet. The 1000 raise is kind of silly, although you probably do have the best hand and position and it could set you up to win the pot on the flop. If you raise 3000 preflop, you are pretty much pot committed. You have position, but you are playing a better player and you are outchipped.

Since you represented a big pair preflop, you might want to follow up by betting the flop.

I agree the push on the river was bad. For one thing, you generally don't want to bluff when you don't know if you are ahead. You could be ahead with king high. I don't agree with some posters that this bluff couldn't have worked. Scotty, could easily have have folded second or third pair to this play.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P

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That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.

I don't think Scotty's call on the river was anything special. Let's break this hand down and analyze each street:

pf. 500 in antes (assuming 10 players, maybe it is only 450 or even 400). Folded around to Scotty who completes, puts 300 into a pot with 1400, so now there is 1700 in it.

Hero Raises 1000, which is pretty odd. Pot is now 2700 and Scotty calls getting 2.7:1.

So is the raise to 1K a sweetener with a big pair? An attempted steal? Value bet from a good hand? All possible at this point.

Flop comes ten high (I am assuming ragged rainbow). Check Check. Ok, we haven't really ruled anything out yet, though small pocket pairs (not set up) are looking less likely.

Turn comes a queen. Scotty now has tpwk and checks. Hero bets 1300 into a pot of 3700. So scotty is getting 5:1.3 on his call. Sure, gotta call there, but he can still be way behind. Hero can put Scotty on two cards that are not drawing dead to a queen. That's about it. He's getting almost 4:1 with hero having 7K behind he may be able to get, so you cannot rule out hands like gut shots, middle pair and possibly even overs.

River comes a 3, pairing the board. That counterfeits some two pair hands, but really does not change much.

Scotty checks and Hero pushes for 7K into a 6.3K pot.

Stop. What just happened there. Why the over bet after those small bets? Does Hero have a sneaky 3 (A3s maybe?). Has he been slowplaying a set and fishing for a three? Why would he expect Scotty to call if he had a big hand? A big hand would like to get some more value out of this hand, and Scotty has not exactly been oozing strength. Could this be a marginal hand like KQ that is betting for value? That is a very bad play IMO here, since there are only a few hands that call you that don't beat you. So just what the hell is up with that bet out of nowhere?

So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot. I am getting almost 2:1 on my call, and have almost 20BB if I call and lose. Scotty has got to believe he is ahead more than 1 time in 3 here. He's probably thinking he is ahead a lot more than half the time, because the bet just does not make sense.

To me this is an easy call. For those who say "That's why you overbet with a monster there, becuase you will arouse suspicion and get bad calls," remember, this only gets called by a hand that can beat a bluff (like a pocket pair less than Q's). So, most of the time you overbet with a big hand you get nothing. You cannot put Scotty on anything other than a hand that is big enough to call small bets getting great pot odds pre flop and on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm...thread over.

[augie00]

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Also, Don't be so sure he will call you here if you take EXACLY the same line with some hand that beats his, because no doubt he is good enough to sense the difference.

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Isn't that a scary thought, knowing that if the hero had AA here that Scotty might have been able to lay it down, just because his intuition is so great?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm...thread over.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that is good analysis, but I thought I had some additional points not covered by it. I hope you don't mind postings after the Gods have spoken.

[PrayingMantis]

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Isn't that a scary thought, knowing that if the hero had AA here that Scotty might have been able to lay it down, just because his intuition is so great?

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Yes, it is scary, but I am positive that most non-pro players will not look/act/behave the same with a big pocekt pair as opposed to KJ at such a spot, regardless of their betting pattern. Some other hands that beat Q8 might be somewhat more difficult to recognize if played this way, probably, and might make it a tougher laydown for SN. Bottom line is, I don't think it makes much sense to try and "outplay" such a player without a very good reason.

[HiatusOver]

So are u saying that pushing all in pre-flop is a horrible play?

[betgo]

I think he was referring to the discussion of whether Scotty would call the river push if you had pocket aces.

I wouldn't need a hand as good as KJs to push preflop. You want to keep it simple against a top player and he has shown weakness by completing. I would almost push with any two.

Cloutier and McEvoy (I know a controversial source) in "Tournament Poker Practice Hands" give an example of where a big stack open completes and you push from the BB with 72o. They say it will be very difficult to win the hand if you see the flop with 72o. The big stack probably doesn't have anything since he completed and will probably fold. If he calls, you probably have a 1/3 chance of winning the hand against two higher cards.

[MLG]

KJ though has a much better chance of winning postflop against an open limper though than 72o. I don't think pushing is a completely horrible play, but it aint that great either.