Party $500K hand

[woodguy]

I don't like overbets unless I have a very good hand.
Like David Ross mentioned, everyone loves to call your overbet bluff, so its best done with the current nuts or a reasonable facimile.

If K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] calls my push we're 50/50, and that's the bottom range of what I would think would call a flop push. Assuming the range of calling hands are pairs w/ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], sets and made flushes.

I know I would look at a flop push as "look ma, no hearts!" (which is why pushing the nut flush is fun if you have more than 1 opponent in the pot.)

So doing air math I'm not convinced that 1100 chips is enough dead $$$ to make up for being a dog to his calling range, but I think its really close.

Any hand that calls your push is also calliing/raising your continuation bet, and you can push the turn on any non heart.

Hero in this hand cannot bust the villian, so the push may only have margianlly more value than a normal continuation bet.

Regards,
Woodguy

[gergery]

Yo D,

I’d have leaned toward check-calling the turn

You are early in the tourney, so the only hands you want to fold here are ones that have more than about 26% equity in the pot (those needing to call 1500 into the 2700+1500 pot you create by pushing), which means they have a heart draw plus something like a gutshot or pair.

But any hand that calls the flop here will almost certainly bet if you check the turn. And there a number of hands like a “Kantor” (pure bluff), single heart like Jh Tc, or pairs with a heart like 8h 8d that you want to put money in here but will likely fold if you bet.

Basically, I don’t think there are many hands that you want to fold that actually will fold if you bet, since they’d be getting close to 3:1 to 1 on a call. Whereas there are a bunch of hands that will put money (incorrectly) in if you check but will fold if you bet.

And I’d probably have bet less on the flop maybe 500. If he’s got a good singleton heart he’s calling anyway, and this way I can 1) still charge him to draw on the flop, 2) get away cheaper if a heart hits, and 3) offer him worse odds on the turn so can generate better fold equity cause you offer 2:1 instead of 3:1

Just my 2 cents

--Greg

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, I don’t think there are many hands that you want to fold that actually will fold if you bet, since they’d be getting close to 3:1 to 1 on a call. Whereas there are a bunch of hands that will put money (incorrectly) in if you check but will fold if you bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Great point.

Nice of you to tear yourself away from the O8 to drop in too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Hero has position in this hand btw.

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
So the flat call on a single suited flop doesn't scare anyone here? The way I look at it may be a bit different. I think that flat flop call gives you a lot of information, and in pushing the turn you are either not listening to the information given or are just ignoring it. At BEST, he has something like KQ with no hearts... not very likely, in my opinion. Not putting him on an overcard heart at the very least is a mistake. OK, I would NOT put him on a made flush, but it is more likely than the KQ non-heart hand. So, on the turn, if you push he's getting about 3:1 on a call. If he has something like K Q then he has plenty of odds to call. Personally, I check the turn or make a small blocking bet, depending on what I know of the player. If he pushes, I call, but don't like it. Again, the odds would be 4200:1500 or almost 3:1. With an overcard heart and no pair he'd consider himself to have 12 outs, giving him odds to call the allin. Pushing the turn gives good odds to call to any hand you don't want calling, so I don't like it. I'm hoping to see the river cheap and I'm willing to put all my chips in on the river if it isn't a King or heart. On a King or heart, I probably show how weak I am and check/fold. Anything else, I lose all my chips to the made flush.

In any case, if there is one thing I learned on these boards is to put yourself in your opponent's shoes... So, as the villain, if you have a made flush on that flop, and are bet into, how are you planning on playing it? I'd like to believe that most of us aren't going to push it all in there and possibly scare out a Queen. We'll release some more rope for the Hero to hang himself. My question to all who are saying to push the turn: What are you putting him on after the flop call, and what are you hoping to get out of the turn push? The goal is to get opponents to make mistakes. A made flush would make a mistake checking behind or flat calling a small blocking bet. A KQ can only make a mistake by folding here. Would you fold to this bet with this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Zoot,

My buddy in this hand is also one of my employees, and he just read your post over my shoulder and said "That's what I was talking about", so thanks from him.


What do you think of this thought.....If he doesn't have the nut flush, a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on river may keep him from betting out (if he goes into check/call mode) and may help you get to showdown even cheaper, so that's another reason to check the turn.....

Regards,
Woodguy

[bugstud]

I sometimes check the flop here intending a turn shove.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice of you to tear yourself away from the O8 to drop in too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Hero has position in this hand btw.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

He has position? I was waiting for the dealer to give me my other two cards before I bet..... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Lloyd]

I think the flop bet is fine. You still have enough behind you to push the turn and prevent someone from getting the right price to draw to the flush. At this point in the tournament I don't see folding this hand. I'd push the turn. His stack is just too short and I think he's ahead of the range of hands I'd put villain on.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts

[/ QUOTE ]
lol

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts

[/ QUOTE ]
Remember Zaxx19? Very similar.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
*** You are ignoring this user ***

[/ QUOTE ]