$30/$60 hand for Andy B.

[Chris Nichelson]

If he has AdKh you have 2 outs.

If he has 9d7d you have no outs.

If he has any diamond higher than an eight with another diamond you have no outs.

The spots where you have no outs or two outs greatly outweigh the spots where he is bluffing or where you have 10 or 11 outs.

I wouldn't have gotten myself into this spot--I would have check called the turn.

[Coilean]

Although I initially thought this looked like an easy call on the turn too, after a little analysis I am inclined to agree with Ulysses that it's only marginal.

Unless it's safe to fold to a bet against this guy on the river if you check (which doesn't sound at all like the case to me), you are frequently making a $120 call on the turn, which may leave your drawing odds much closer to 4.7:1 than the tasty 8.3:1 you seem to be getting. This is still plenty to make a call for 10 outs, but since you probably have 0 or 2 outs around half the time, it's starting to get a bit anemic.

Looking at it another way, at the time of the turn raise, there is $500 in the pot, and for simplicity assume there is always a bet and call on the river (which is probably what would happen 70+ % of the time anyway), meaning you are laying $120 to win $560. Against a medium king with a single diamond (say, 10 combos of KQ-J) your EV would then be 42/44(-120) + 2/44(+560) = -89.1 (-1.48BB). Against a small set (66 55 33, for 9 combos) your EV would be 33/44(-120) + 11/44(+560) = +50.0 (+0.83BB). Against a medium king without a diamond (say, KQ-J KTs for 13 combos) your EV would be 34/44(-120) + 10/44(+560) = +34.54 (+0.58BB). Against a flush (say AXd KQ-98d KJ-T8d KTd, for 21 combos, but call it only 10 combos for the unlikely seeming play) your EV is -2BB.

So, against the weighted lineup of {KQ-J KTs AXd QJ-98d QT-T8d 33 55 66} where exactly 1 more bet always goes in on the river, your EV is -1.48BB(10/42) + 0.83BB(9/42) + 0.58BB(13/42) + -2BB(10/42) = -0.47BB. If you give your opponent an average of 6 outs those times he is making a move on you, your EV for those times he's screwing around is 38/44(+560) + 6/44(-120) = +467 (+7.78BB), meaning you can break even as long as he's making a move at least 6% of the time.

And all of this means that for this to be an "easy" call, you probably want to be against on opponent who has a 10+ % chance of being on a steal. And given the board and the betting, there just shouldn't be many hands he can still be in there with that warrant a move (Ad5x? AdQx? 76s? 44?). So I give this one a firm stamp of "marginal".

[Clarkmeister]

Well thought out as usual. The problem here is that since you are assuming a call on the river, then by default that assumes a greater than 10% chance of Vehn's opponent "making a move", no? If there is only a 6% chance of that, then why would you call the river? In other words, by saying that you must call the river, it implies that the opponent is, in fact, making a move more than the 10% of the time that is required for calling the turn to be +EV.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't see any need to call the river at all unless I have a specific read at the table that the player is, in fact, making a move, and then I would assume the chances of a bluff far exceed the 10% I need to call his river bet. As a generic hand, I'd be surprised if he was making a move more than 5% of the time. Though I didn't state it explicitly, when I posted my initial read and recommendation in this thread, it was with the assumption that I would fold on the river if faced with another bet and I did not improve.

And I still disagree with Ulysses about the chances that a flush draw held by a "too aggressive" player would smoothcall the flop. You did discount the possibility in your analysis though, so I'll go with the reduced chance.