What else am I doing with these aces??

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]

what [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is he going to check raise us with? Q? J? T? why didn't he bet into us?

[/ QUOTE ]
I see an aggressive player check-raising us with all three of those cards. And check-raising gets two bets in on the turn, that's why he would do it. Since he likely figures us for an A or K (we raised preflop) he's gotta assume we might not have a flush. Am I missing something here?


[ QUOTE ]
i just think he is donking the flop with a large range of hands (as many retards at 1/2 do), so we are not getting check raised as often as everyone seems to think.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty key point. If you look at that flop donkbet (and calling of our raise) and think "flush draw" (like I did) then you'll want to check behind. If you look at it your way and say "could be anything" then you'll want to bet.

Reading the post again I noticed Aaron's comment that "This is about the third or fourth time he's donked into the preflop raiser on the flop". So I'll concede that tips it to the "could have anything" side. But he also says "has shown signs of aggression" which makes a check-raise (or a river bluff) more likely.

F. Who knows -- it's a pretty close, player-dependent decision, I think.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't have to bet the river if he calls the turn. he will call the turn bet with hands we beat but also hands that beat us.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you do.

What is the benefit of betting the turn if you're going to take a free showdown?

- You save yourself half of the pot 20% of the time if villain has crap and won't call a turn bet.
- Making villain fold a flush? I doubt it. It's hard for me to imagine an apparently aggro villain bet-calling the flop with a flush draw, but folding when the flush comes in. Also, the pot is very small, so this would need to work a fairly large portion of the time for it to be correct.

Where is it neutral?

- It's neutral for all hands that villain will call a turn bet with and plan to call a river bet with. If you check behind, he'll either bet these hands himself (and you'll just call), or he will check to you, you will bet, and he will call. This means that your turn value bet doesn't gain anything over checking and making it a river value bet instead (or a value-call if he bets).

What are the drawbacks?

- Getting check-raised. I don't know how often it will happen, but it won't need to happen very often because 2 BB is 40% of the 5 BB pot that you're looking at on the turn.

- You lose the chance to get paid off by super-weak hands. If you check behind on the turn and bet the river, villain may call with a wider range of hands than if you were to bet the turn. The reason is that he knows he's only one bet from seeing what you have. This psychological trap makes him more likely to toss his chips in on the river.

So all betting does is protect 2.5 BB when all both of the following happen:

1) Flush card falls on the river (only 20% of the time)
2) Villain has a hand that he would have folded on the turn

In basically every other case, you stand to do no better. And against the check-raise, you do much worse.

So if you bet the turn, you need to bet the river to pick up the extra bets from hands like the case ace and some king hands to make up for the losses of getting check-raised (which is arguably much worse than saving those 2.5 BBs some small percent of the time).