Jacked Up?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you know a queen is a blank the above statement is incorrect. I discuss the exact same concept in one of my books. I called a fourth st bet with a gutshot bike draw and an ace overcard. Who remembers that hand? I used similar reasoning as Poker Babe. Reasoning that is CRITICAL if you are playing in the bigger tougher games. There you must be willing to sometimes call the turn but sometimes fold the same hand on the river to avoid being exploited.

[/ QUOTE ]

i remember this exact hand precisely. is the 20/40 game referenced "tough" enough to warrant the concept's use. further, with the following discussion i'm going to reference made hands on the turn. you're example includes a draw you didn't really have the outs for but called as a result of the above stated concept.

i think that the concept is fantastic but i'm unsure if this is the place for it.

[ QUOTE ]
With all that being said, I will agree that in this particular case the river call is pretty automatic. But the fold on the turn or call on the river concept that Mr.780 and others referred to is something that Lee Jones might say.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is something i also adhere to which you are now making me question and i would love to know why. also who is "Mr. 780"?

when you put your bet in on the turn with your made hand getting 8.5:1 minus rake against an "unknown" opponent who quickly called your preflop raise, what is your intention? in NL, one of the biggest flaws/mistakes/holes in my game is that i sometimes (or oftentimes) "save a bet" on the river by calling the turn where i can simply fold the turn but don't feel secure enough in my read until the river (meaning if he bets the turn and i call then he knows im calling so i should now fold). so i'll call the pot sized bet and fold to another one getting the exact same odds. ML4L said that this corrects itself with experience...i guess im not experienced enough with it yet.

but in limit, it only costs one bet after you've called the turn in this situation and the river call has to be made, as you said. but you go on to imply that the "fold the turn OR call the river" concept is either incorrect, incomplete, or retarded, all of which i find disrupting as i frequently use that concept on the turn in decision making for the final two streets.

i say to myself, "is my [made] hand going to be good x% of the time? what is the pot offering me? if im not good now can i improve on the river(can i call tryingt o improve and fold the river if i dont?)? can i fold now if i plan on folding the river?" usually after i answer those questions i know what my plan is. sometimes i can't answer them all but the crux, to me personally, is that if im not getting the odds to improve, AND i choose to play i will call both streets with the decision my hand will be good x% of the time relative to the pot. BUT, i also state to myself that if i DO NOT plan on calling the river if i don't improve AND i am not getting odds to call to improve (but want to call now knowing it shores up my read and can fold the river) i should fold NOW! this logic, in my mind, leads me to the "mantra," "fold the turn or call the river."

i've found numerous examples of this concept in discussion with a fellow poster and see it in my own game.

if it is incorrect, flawed, or retarded i would love to know why.

please, please, please (emphasis needed i think [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ) let me know if this is a hole in my game.

thank you kindly,

-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
"The pot's nowhere close to big enough to chase for a Jack. If you think your chances of being good are good enough to call the turn, call the river. If not, fold on the turn. Simple"


Even if you know a queen is a blank the above statement is incorrect. I discuss the exact same concept in one of my books. I called a fourth st bet with a gutshot bike draw and an ace overcard. Who remembers that hand? I used similar reasoning as Poker Babe.


With all that being said, I will agree that in this particular case the river call is pretty automatic. But the fold on the turn or call on the river concept that Mr.780 and others referred to is something that Lee Jones might say.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know who Mr 780 is, but why I posted that comment, and what you couldn't be aware of, is that it is poster-specific advice based on knowledge of her play. That is, Pokerbabe isn't doing it to avoid being exploited. She is, by her own admission, doing it because she thinks the pot is big enough. What she and many other Mirage regulars (MR) aren't aware of is that while the concept of call the turn and fold the river is perfect strategy against them , it is not effective strategy for MR to use, because their opponents are far more aggressive than MR are. Especially against MR. And it works, mostly because MR only think that their opponents think like they themselves do, so they keep getting pushed around.

In other words, Pokerbabe should occassionally employ "the call-the-turn-fold-the-river-because-they-won't-always-keep-firing-and-it-keeps-me-from-being-exploited-and-it-possibly-exploits-my-opponent's-river-betting-tendencies" strategy against the group of regular locals who play like she does. And never against anyone else.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
But the fold on the turn or call on the river concept that Mr.780 and others referred to is something that Lee Jones might say.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have to admire your tenacity lol

[Clarkmeister]

"I would rather establish against the 'new' player that i won't fold the river for 1 bet here."

Good point, and another reason why the specific advice given in this thread is correct for the situation posted.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if my worst fears on the turn were correct (as they were), I still had two outs and the pot is attractive enough for me to call the turn hoping for the miracle river

Yup, as long as you can get 15 bets out of him when the Jack hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
hi babe
it was a good fold. it was a bad fold. poker babe has returned. and now we are a happy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

it was a sad fold.

[J.A.Sucker]

I think David's right on this one; often, you won't have to pay for the river, and this free showdown makes it correct to call on the turn for a much smaller pot. That may or may not be the case on this hand, but there are numerous cases where this is true.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
It's like the real life version of Sklansky's Perfectly Readable vs Perfectly Terrible question.


[/ QUOTE ]

hah [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. Clarkmeister is Perfectly Insightful.

[DcifrThs]

i think im going to have to ask you to explain this better to me in person.

so far i've gathered the following:

1) sometimes the bettor will not bet the river so this reduces the odds necessary for calling the turn since sometimes you won't need to call when you're hand is good but would have folded had the bettor continued to fire.

2) you should call the turn and fold the river when a 2 things are happening: a) you're not against aggressive players, b) you're at risk of being exploited (having too many shots taken at you on the turn is no good and if fired at again when opponent expects you to call you can fold)

and

3) david sklansky thinks "calling the river or folding the turn" is not clear cut or he thinks its stupid and dead wrong.

so clark, i ask you, help me plug this gaping hole in my understanding here by explaining this turn/river concept to me as if i never played a hand of poker...ok, maybe not that low, but as if i never knew a concept such as this existed.

thanks...and if you can't do it here, then wait a day and i'll get it from you then.

-Barron

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Yet, I think it's unusual for a player to make it 4 on the flop with an underpair and then to bet the river when a face card comes after getting some resistance from an UTG raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unusual, but they exist. like Clark said, medium or even low pocketpair (i don't like the usage or "underpair" here) or a flush draw with with two medium cards might play the same way, granted he needs to be a pretty aggressive player, but you did say he was unknown didn't you?

You being a girl or a pretty girl (please don't take this as offensive) might indeed have some effect on the opponent and either make them play straight up or more tricky, only you know it, so i guess in that regard, it is possible for you to have better reads sometimes.

In anycase, what you need to figure out is: how much $ in theory did you save in the long run by making this correct fold? is it worth the risk of making a mistake? to me, it'd be a mistake, because my reads wouldn't be so solid on a stranger.

Kenny