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#31
06-24-2005, 02:20 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
Get both Harrington on Hold'em books. They are the best NLHE tourney books around, bar none, and he covers many STT situations.
Having said that, no where else on this website or anywhere on the web or in print publications has there been more ground-breaking poker theory developed than on this forum that goes even beyond what Harrington covers. A world of information is within these pages. There are also a number of tools created here in support of those theories and if you want to get really serious you'd do yourself a big favor in investing in some of them. 
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#32
06-24-2005, 02:41 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
[ QUOTE ]
Get both Harrington on Hold'em books. They are the best NLHE tourney books around, bar none, and he covers many STT situations. Having said that, no where else on this website or anywhere on the web or in print publications has there been more ground-breaking poker theory developed than on this forum that goes even beyond what Harrington covers. A world of information is within these pages. There are also a number of tools created here in support of those theories and if you want to get really serious you'd do yourself a big favor in investing in some of them. [/ QUOTE ] What are some of the tools that you personally use and find helpful?
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#33
06-24-2005, 02:46 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
[ QUOTE ]
SHHHHHHHHHHH! All you micro guys better not be following me around.... [/ QUOTE ] I'm staying at the 11s for a about 100 more. Getting owned too much by people like you at the 22s. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#34
06-24-2005, 02:54 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
You can look in the response from NoodleMan for the link to the favs thread. There's tracking software for your ITM/ROI, the ICM calculator and eastbay's commerical product, the SGA or SNGPT.
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#35
06-24-2005, 02:59 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe that was all in the $6s the $55s or something, but it seems kinda hard to fit that day into your stats there. Also, you might have just been being silly with this post. [/ QUOTE ] How it is that people can come on here and routinely get flamed for wondering if a 40% ROI is sustainable yet people can seriously consider that this Pokertracker screenshot represents a complete sample of Sponger's SNGs is beyond me.
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#37
06-24-2005, 03:05 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
What do you think the chances are if you're a 40% ITM player of having a 100 consecutive game period where you're ITM 80% of the time? Make a guess, I'll work it out and get back to you.
EDIT: I have the answer, but I'd be curious to see a few people guess first.
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#38
06-24-2005, 03:29 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
Gump is right, and I was just as surprised as he was.
Pokertracker auto-imports SNG's in a weird way and doesn't count finishes correctly. Pretty much anyone's imported SNG's are going to show like a 165% ROI. I guess a lot of players don't have Pokertracker here or have never tried importing with it. Try it yourself and thrill to your own 170% or 220% ROI as it imports only 7 out of 30 games and maybe even those incorrectly. Manually importing the tourney histories supposedly helps straighten things out.
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#39
06-24-2005, 03:51 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
[ QUOTE ] Make a guess, I'll work it out and get back to you. [/ QUOTE ] 6%
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#40
06-24-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: Crushing SNG\'s
[ QUOTE ]
6% [/ QUOTE ] For reference, this is slightly smaller than the likelihood that you will cash in 40 of 100 straight games with an ITM of 40%. We have 100 games to play. In each game, you'll either cash (with probability .4), or not cash, (with probability .6). We are interested in cashing 80 times. There are 100! / (80! * 20!) ways to choose which 80 games we cash in, and then we need to multiply by the probability of cashing in each of those 80 games (.4^80) and the probability of not cashing in the other 20 (.6^20). So, the number is (100! / (80! * 20!)) * (.4^80) * (.6^20) Evaluating this, we get 2.864 * 10^-16. For some perspective: - This is less probable than a theoretically average player coming in first 15 games in a row. - This is less probable than a 40% ITM player cashing in only 5 games out of 100 straight. - It's really, really unlikely. Here's a plot of probability of getting x cashes over 100 straight games as a 40% ITM player:  As you can see, the likelihood that you'll get more than 60 or less than 20 is pretty small.
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