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#1
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Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
Party 5/10
Fishy limps UTG he was the 43/5 type... I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] next to act. Solidish if slightly passive preflop player (~25/11) 3 bets me. Loose passive OTB calls three cold. Blinds fold, UTG calls, I call. Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG checks, I check, Preflop raiser bets, button calls, UTG calls, I raise, they call call. Turn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Checked to me, I bet, pfr folds, button and UTG call. River 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets out, what's my move here? UTG could have a 4, but he sure doesn't have to. The button is a calling station and he could easily overcall if I decline to raise. There's a slimmer change he'd call two cold anyway. Your thoughts? |
#2
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
I'd go for the overcall.
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#3
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
[ QUOTE ]
I'd go for the overcall. [/ QUOTE ] |
#4
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
I'd hate to get 3-bet here. I'd also hate to lose button's call with a raise.
If we call, we win 2 or lose 1. I'd much prefer this over taking a chance at winning 4 but maybe losing 3. |
#5
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
I'd raise. BT likes calling so give him the chance to CC two more. I just don't believe UTG at all so I'd make sure I got another bet out of what ever he has.
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#6
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
The only 4 I could ever see being played this way is Xs4s, but the 4s is out, or maybe a funky two-pair, who you'd usually hear from on the turn. He might be a wuss due to the flush draw, but then he'd probably c/r the river.
I say raise. If button calls 3-cold preflop, he'll likely call 2-cold with most pairs on the river in a big pot. Getting 3-bet stinks, but hey, so does shaving. |
#7
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
raise. button will call the 2 bets cuz he cant stand to lose with his JJ, and UTG is a moron who will still call with whatever hand he decided he would outplay everyone on the river with by betting.
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#8
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
I just go for overcalls. UTG waking up on the river means one of five things: 1) He has a king and figures the river counterfeited a lower two pair of yours. 2) A fourth flush card didn't come so now he's value-betting a random hand (pocket pair, a king, etc etc). 3) He's trying to represent a four on a pure bluff or semi bluff. 4) He actually has a four. 5) He has the world's worst-played baby flush but doesn't want to try for a check raise and wimped out on the turn.
He's only calling your raise here if he's on a king, some random pair, a four or a baby flush. I don't really know if we're ahead 55 % of the time that he calls - and even if we are, it seems the button will overcall a lot more often if we don't raise it. |
#9
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
Raise.
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#10
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
I like the overcall.
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