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#31
10-05-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: Pocket JJ
I call this flop even if we know BB has the Q a majority of the time, as long as Button isn't the type to raise here often. I'll give ourselves 3 outs right now... when the action gets to you, the pot is 12 SB. I estimate the expected pot size on the turn to be 15 SB. Hence, using DIPO:
Good Number: 15 * 3 = 45 Bad Number: 47 - 3 = 44 This is a call, and I haven't even accounted for the chance that we're ahead right now, which is often enough to tip a marginal fold into a marginal call. Then, fold the turn unimproved. Against a villain who will bet out with a larger range, the turn play gets more interesting. We could be ahead of the flop quite often, but there are many cards that we want to dodge on the turn (Aces and clubs). If a bad card comes on the turn, I'll fold. If I pick up a straight draw, I'll call. However, if the turn brings a blank, i.e. non-club 2 to 8, I would strongly consider raising the turn for a free showdown. 
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#32
10-05-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Pocket JJ
[ QUOTE ]
you may do that, and that would classify as an aggressive read. you are betting out on a blank turn as well? that's why i said if 3-bet and bet into on the turn without that read, i'd fold. [/ QUOTE ] No i would not bet a turn blank without enough equity to do so. Missed the bet the turn part.
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