stupid 1010 hand

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Now it's true that we can't say that with absolute certainty. But given enough hands with player types like this we can begin to estimate how many combos of a9 an opponent could have. I'd say less than 1.

Krishan

[Catt]

The only info we have is 8 pfr over only 400 hands. We have no idea (other than what the stats say) how he reacts to blind steal situations; what he might think of button; what he might think of us; what has been happening at the table; if he's down / up feeling lucky / feeling run over; what he's doing while playing; what mood he's in, etc., etc.

I make folds on the river here like these. I think most of the time they are good folds; I'm sure some of the time I'm wrong, but I think I'm making good decisions long-term on fold or call. I'm not saying that the stats are meaningless or we must always call here (because I do not think that is close to true). However, based on the info given in the OP and then in subsequent posts, I don't think this should be folded. When I do make a fold like this, I don't post it because, while I may believe it was the best play and mayh continue to so believe upon a post-session review, I'm either unable to convey that info adequately in a post for someone who was not there, or I am able to convey it and it either is "good fold" or "I wouldn't fold" -- i.e., nothgin good really comes from posting it. Victor may have had enough extraneous info to make this a good fold; but absent that info (which may require presence at the table to truly appreciate it) I don't think I could argue as an outside observer that this should be a fold by any noteworthy margin (and I think there are decent reasons to make a close call if, as I suspect, he's playing in a game where he will likely play against this specific opp with some frequency).

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9- folding to a preflop cap? How are you gonna win if you fold in these big pots?

Where's AggroHush poster when you need him?

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]

God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap, Im glad someone mentioned this. Im like never folding A9 offsuit or suited to a buttons open raise. Unless hes passive and only raises strong hands. Usually this is a 3bet for me, easy.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9- folding to a preflop cap? How are you gonna win if you fold in these big pots?

Where's AggroHush poster when you need him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whew. I'll often 3-bet A9 here.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. but i still cant fold it.

[Lmn55d]

Vic, imo this is not even close to being a river fold. Yea his pfr is 8. But this is a blind steal situation. Additionally, have you ever heard of tilt or alcohol induced aggression? lol, these things are all possible. I think you will see a hand like 77, A9, K9, j9, q9 here enough to make this call. Seriously I can think of so many times I've been in almost this exact same spot and have called the river "knowing" I'm beat, only to be showed some random hand.

I like pre-flop. Can't find a river fold. Had the turn been some non-heart I could have looked for a fold there.

[krishanleong]

preflop is fine. Postflop is fine. he'll show you a small pp often enough to call the river.

Krishan