stars $114 turbo - big draw on the bubble

[augie00]

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I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

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And I specifically said I think you are dead wrong about that.

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That's the problem with posting hands online. Mathmatically, he doesn't have it every time, sometimes he's bluffing, and sometimes he folds.

But I'm telling you that him betting 1000 into the 1000 pot was a sign of GREAT strength, and I was 100% confident that he's not laying it down. I had little to no fold equity, and that is fact.

[wdcbooks]

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I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

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And I specifically said I think you are dead wrong about that.

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That's the problem with posting hands online. Mathmatically, he doesn't have it every time, sometimes he's bluffing, and sometimes he folds.

But I'm telling you that him betting 1000 into the 1000 pot was a sign of GREAT strength, and I was 100% confident that he's not laying it down. I had little to no fold equity, and that is fact.

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No it isn't a fact. 2+2=4 is a fact. It is not possible to have a read like that playing a Sit and Go. We can extrapolate likely behavior after playing hundreds of these things against thousands of players. We can further categorize our opponent's play and make some guesses as to what they might be holding and how they will play those holdings. There is no type of player besides a complete maniac against whom you have no folding equity. I would accept your read if this was a five hour multi-table, but it is a turbo Sit and Go. `Even if you are correct about the folding equity(which I will never concede) you are almost always a favorite when he calls anyway.

Which is a big part of what you have failed to address. What hand ranges do you put him on here? What flops would you have been willing to put all your money in on? I know that I would likely make a continuation bet here after my preflop raise and I would run you over if you kept folding. Using your criteria that is exactly what you will be doing, folding over and over again until you are no longer a big stack.

You have a great shot here of ensuring at least 1st or 2nd. At some point in poker your money has to join your opponent's money in a pot. It does not accumulate magically. You are being offered a chance to do this in a highly advantageous position. You declined despite a rather large edge in the pot because you didn't want to bubble. Fine with me, but why argue about it as if the fold was correct.

[ekky]

Interesting hand Augie.

My gut reaction is, if I am going to willingly tangle with the big stack with this hand, by calling a 3* BB raise.. I can't justify to myself folding on this flop.

I can certainly understand the reasoning behind folding..good chip stack/not willing to put it all in on a virtual coin-flip etc.. but if this is the case, I cant understand the logic behind the pre-flop call.

Its one thing being forced into seeing the flop and having this decision, (ie unraised blind), but when you actively choose to play a raised pot vs the villain, with this type of hand, it wouldn't seem correct to then fold on this flop.

So, I would definately play here... and if I wasn't willing to play a flop like this, I would not waste 300 chips calling pre flop.

[adanthar]

If he is 100% not folding the flop, the play is simple: call this and then CR or push any turn (whichever has the most FE.) If he's not folding the turn either, I think I'm still calling the flop solely because the implied odds on the turn are his stack.

I'd have folded PF, BTW.

[augie00]

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What hand ranges do you put him on here?

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While I was thinking of what I should do I did not bother to put him on a specific range of hands, I did not think it was necessary. I knew I was a small favorite over nearly anything he could hold. Key word being small.

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What flops would you have been willing to put all your money in on?

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This flop is fine to get all my money in on. If the villian had made a smaller bet I would have felt better about CRing him. If I had a shorter stack, I would have felt MUCH better about CRing him. I just think I've got too many chips to go broke here. Combining that with my read on the villain and I think a fold becomes better and better.

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You are being offered a chance to do this in a highly advantageous position

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rather large edge in the pot

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If 55/45 is highly adventageous or a rather large edge I'll cut my balls off. I'm serious.

[Spook]

what about the fact that if the villian calls and loses he has about 200 chips left.
Does that not affect how he plays this hand?
he has no fear of busting out?

[augie00]

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what about the fact that if the villian calls and loses he has about 200 chips left.
Does that not affect how he plays this hand?
he has no fear of busting out?

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Of course it does. Christ. But he's not folding. I already said that.

[microbet]

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CR or push any turn

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Well, not Qs.

[wdcbooks]

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If 55/45 is highly adventageous or a rather large edge I'll cut my balls off. I'm serious.

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You are lucky I have some sharp scissors. This shouldn't hurt much. There is already 1,000 in the pot. It isn't like this is a coinflip in a dry pot. 55/45 with a 1,000 in the pot is signficant. You must be scary good if you can find odds much better than that on a routine basis.

Finally we all realize that you said he wouldn't fold. If wishes were kittens I would be a crazy cat lady. Saying it doesn't make it so. Even if I go against every instinct I have about Sit and Go play and trust your read it can't possibly be 100% correct. You had some fold equity, it may have been small, but it was there.

[partygirluk]

You have to have one HELL of a read to fold this. You are almost certainly a favourite, and I find it hard to believe you have 0% chance of folding if you put him all in. He has a big stack on the bubble, and won't be wanting to tangle with you either. I suspect he folds here a lot more than you think. Not sure about your preflop call either, seems like a fold to me.