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#31
10-12-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set? And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws). My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble. I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops. [/ QUOTE ] I think Sammy can make a good read on this board and get away from the hand if Curtis shows strength here. If we believe that Curtis isn't some donk who raises 20xBB with any 2 cards just to play LAGGish, then Sammy will be really careful. Remember, he just doubled up. No reason to throw it all away when you might be beat with set over set (if the A or K flops). I think Farha played this well, got lucky and stacked off someone overplaying AA. [/ QUOTE ] If sammy flops a set here, theres no way he's getting away from it, i think this was a bad call (or atleast -cEV) he doesnt hit his set enough, ,and when he does he gest drawn out on enough to make this suck. Also, sincec when is a huge raise always AA/KK... i'd say more often than not a big raise like that means AK or maybe JJ.. people think they dont want to see flops with those hands or overbet it. 
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#32
10-12-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set? And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws). My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble. I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops. [/ QUOTE ] I think Sammy can make a good read on this board and get away from the hand if Curtis shows strength here. If we believe that Curtis isn't some donk who raises 20xBB with any 2 cards just to play LAGGish, then Sammy will be really careful. Remember, he just doubled up. No reason to throw it all away when you might be beat with set over set (if the A or K flops). I think Farha played this well, got lucky and stacked off someone overplaying AA. [/ QUOTE ] If sammy flops a set here, theres no way he's getting away from it, i think this was a bad call (or atleast -cEV) he doesnt hit his set enough, ,and when he does he gest drawn out on enough to make this suck. Also, sincec when is a huge raise always AA/KK... i'd say more often than not a big raise like that means AK or maybe JJ.. people think they dont want to see flops with those hands or overbet it. [/ QUOTE ] I agree that there is some possibility of AK or JJ -- which means that there is also good possibility that Curtis won't stack off every time that Sammy hits a set, which is a requirement for calling the 1k. The fact that Curtis had 14k in chips actually makes this a slightly better call IMHO because he's getting 14:1 not 10:1 if his assumption that Curtis would stack off every time is right (that is one hell of an assumption though!). I also just re-watched the episode. Clearly he was just gambling here. Calling with 33 probably was one of his better gambles, but he was seriously gambling. For example, he called a double-raise with 92s -- when the original raiser (DN) could still have re-raised. Then he called on a flush draw/gutshot for 2k getting 3:1 (that's not the worst call in the world if he thinks he's going to get action on the river AND all his outs are clean). I'm sure Sammy Farha would outplay the hell out of me, so I'm not saying he is a bad player or anything stupid like that, it's just pretty clear that these calls were not major +EV calls - they were calculated gambles designed to build up a big chip stack early, or bust out and play a different game.
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#33
10-12-2005, 05:20 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
[ QUOTE ]
Sam Farha's call is perfect, when you consider the situation: 1) Farha has plenty of chips, having doubled up earlier. Survival isn't a concern when making this call. 2) Opponent has just made a ridiculously large raise - it is nearly certain he makes this play only because he's scared of being sucked out on, and he has AA or KK. Given that we know this, the reverse implied odds are huge - the opponent may as well has flipped his cards over for us. 3) An opponent who makes such a foolishly large raise is likely to make another foolish play and put all his money in on the flop. Given these factors, Farha is likely getting 10-1 on his money when looking at the implied odds; when he hits his 3 (about 7.5-1 against), his opponent will almost always go broke. Given this, his call is a smart play in my book. [/ QUOTE ] this is why the play is correct. well done. rj
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#35
10-12-2005, 07:57 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
I was actually a little disappointed that someone with such a good understanding of casino odds (blackjack, craps, etc.) would play AA this way. I was like, surely he's trying to overbet in hopes that some donk amateur would call him with a lower pair (3s would suffice). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
[ QUOTE ] I'm up to $14,300. Then trouble. I pick up AA. This is a real problem hand in this situation. [/ QUOTE ] A real problem hand? In the early stages of a tournament where you're deep in chips when compared with the blinds? [ QUOTE ] I bet $1,000 ... [/ QUOTE ] Come again??? [ QUOTE ] and Farha called after a lot of thought, looking at Negreanu and saying "you gotta gamble, right." He had 33 and the flop came 3-4-9. I bet 6,000, he raised all-in, and I called. Two big mistakes on my part. First, there was no reason to bet as much as I did after the flop. Betting the size of the pot, about $2,000, would have made him lay it down had he missed the flop. Second, I have to know he's hit a set at this point (though I was thinking possible KK, maybe even QQ). Had I made the better bet, I might have been able to throw the aces. Honestly, I'm not sure though. TV table and a chance to bounce Farha and go to $29,000 was too enticing. I think the deciding factor was that I don't feel I'm good enough right now to throw away aces and play on against the best players in the world, so I took my shot. [/ QUOTE ] A $6k flop bet? Man, if you're up against a set of 3s well then so be it, but the other 88% of the time, you'd want to get a little value out of the rockets doncha' think? Anthony, so disappointed, so, so disappointed.
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#36
10-12-2005, 08:28 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
i posted this up... so the general concensus is that farha made a fine play with the information he had reguardless of his skill level.
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#37
10-12-2005, 08:31 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
[ QUOTE ]
i posted this up... so the general concensus is that farha made a fine play with the information he had reguardless of his skill level. [/ QUOTE ]yea, u were right on in ur original post for most of the reasoning too, mostly impied odds
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#38
10-12-2005, 09:12 PM
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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
Anthony Curtis is not an unknown to anyone that has watch travel channel specials on las vegas.
He runs a really good website also: www.lasvegasadvisor.com
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