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#31
03-28-2005, 01:32 AM
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Re: Preflop
I'm folding none of these.
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#33
03-28-2005, 12:17 PM
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Re: Preflop
eh, I don't know that I'm right, I just know that I'd feel pretty dang comfy playing all those hands there, though the QJs is likely somewhat close. I can't fathom why many of you would be folding AT there, that's a monster in that situation.
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#34
03-28-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: Stove
[ QUOTE ]
important factors are being able to get to the river via having outs. if you whiff with KJo, it might be hard to continue. with KTs, backdoor flush outs can let you peel, whereas you'd have to fold the unsuited version. [/ QUOTE ] It helps to think about this issue in terms of expected value of the flop. The EV of the flop is: (<Final Pot Size> * <Probability of Winning>  - <Postflop Costs>A flop that needs to be folded has EV=0. The EV of a flop can never be negative. Playing preflop is good if the average expected value of the flop is greater than your preflop payment. So if you call two bets cold you need a flop that is worth at least 2 SB on average. You have drawn a distinction between flops that are completely worthless (KJo whiffs) and flops that are *almost* worthless (KTs whiffs with a backdoor). Anytime you barely have odds to peel a card, your hand is almost worthless. The difference between a worthless flop and an almost worthless flop barely matters in determining whether your preflop call was a good investment. Drawing a card with KTs because of the backdoor draw may allow you to win a few more pots, but those pots will add very little to your profits.
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#35
03-28-2005, 12:32 PM
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Re: Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
eh, I don't know that I'm right, I just know that I'd feel pretty dang comfy playing all those hands there, though the QJs is likely somewhat close. I can't fathom why many of you would be folding AT there, that's a monster in that situation. [/ QUOTE ] This is a very useful comment. Whether you choose to play a certain hand will always depend on the opponents and may often be a borderline decision that doesn't matter very much. But understanding what different hands are worth is extremely important. It's obvious from the discussion that the posters do not have a consensus that (e.g.) ATo > QJs. Not understanding fundamentals makes good judgment impossible. Could you rank Danenania's hands (QJs, ATo, A8s, 66-22, KJo, and KTs) in order of value in this situation? Thanks in advance.
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#36
03-28-2005, 02:27 PM
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Re: Preflop
I agree. I'm new to SH and still lack judgement on these plays. In loose full ring games I usually feel more comfortable cold-calling QJs with other callers rather than ATo. Is it that good high card value is more important than decent high card and good flush/straight value in this spot?
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#37
03-28-2005, 03:00 PM
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Re: Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
eh, I don't know that I'm right, I just know that I'd feel pretty dang comfy playing all those hands there, though the QJs is likely somewhat close. I can't fathom why many of you would be folding AT there, that's a monster in that situation. [/ QUOTE ] What is it about these hands that make you feel comfy about putting two bets in here in this spot? For example, is it wrong to compare equity percentage to pot odds here? What really should be the most important thing to consider? I mean if we consider 30% equity vs likely 3.5 to 1 pot odds... it is a must play. I know this on the one hand, but on the other hand this doesn't make a lot of sense to measure up the situation this way.
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#39
03-28-2005, 04:57 PM
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Re: Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
Could you rank Danenania's hands (QJs, ATo, A8s, 66-22, KJo, and KTs) in order of value in this situation? [/ QUOTE ] Even if you can rank these hands in relative strength in this sitution, you still may not know if ANY or ALL of them are worth playing here. What's the best way to decide how to proceed/ what tools to use. Is it more experience/art or more math such equity % vs pot odds? Or consider both and basically it shouldnt matter much in this close a decision. Anyone?
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#40
03-28-2005, 05:51 PM
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Re: Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
eh, I don't know that I'm right, I just know that I'd feel pretty dang comfy playing all those hands there, though the QJs is likely somewhat close. I can't fathom why many of you would be folding AT there, that's a monster in that situation. [/ QUOTE ] Most people don't play half as well as you post flop though Clark. That may very well turn some of your playable hands to folds for other players. FWIW, I cap ATo there.
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