OK, here's the train wreck against majorkong - Page 4

Bob T. · #31 05-06-2003, 04:00 AM

I'm surprised how many people aren't sure they like the river rasie. I can't imagine not raising the 3rd nuts just because someone bet into me. Remember, he was in the SB. He could literally have any two suited cards. Couldn't he have just as easily played 8d7d this way, up until the river 3-bet anyway?

When a thread gets this big, it is hard to figure out which posts are responses to which posts.

Anyway, there are 7 diamonds out there that aren't accounted for in your hand or on the board. If you combine them, there are 28 different combinations. Seven of those combinations are ace high, 6 of those combinations are jack high. So if Majorkong has two random diamonds, you are ahead 15/28 ths of the time. In order to raise, when a reraise is possible, you want to be ahead about 2/3 of the time, if you can't fold to the reraise. I think that if you are fairly certain that he was on a flush draw, then with the third nuts, you need to be careful of raising on the river. I think that you might have been able to make the tough fold the river, given that you had a fourth raise at your disposal, so if he isn't worried about a reraise, that pretty much says where he is on this hand. ( In all honesty, I would probably pay off the three bet, just because I become a calling station after I raise the river. )

bernie · #32 05-06-2003, 10:27 AM

i may have raised the river also. kong could be betting some different hands. even though it looks very much like a flush. especially with his turn play. given that, id lean toward calling, but a raise would cross my mind. he may have a smaller flush with his 1st bet. (id have to look again at the post to check his position. i cant remember if he was in a blind or not. if it's an EP position, id be much more likely just to call his initial bet, but if he bets from a blind on the river, then id be inclined to raise it. something to consider)

as far as folding to a 3 bet...put yourself in his shoes. if he knows your a 2+2 guy, your raise looks scary to him. unless he has a nut hand. if he had a less than nut flush, i think he wouldve called your raise. maybe a 2nd nut he may 3 bet, but i dont see him 3 betting any less. he's smart enough to know what your raise means.

i dont think he's bluffing into a turn bettor here, and he certainly isnt 3 betting a turn bettors raise with a bluff.

because it's MK, or a player like him, itd be easier to lay down this to a 3 bet. easier doesnt mean it wouldnt be tough

i just dont see his range of hands that wide at all. i dont see him making this play with a set. especially with his turn play. he has no set, nor 2 pair. the way he played, he's most likely drawing. his 1st bet on the river, he hit his draw. his 3 bet, he REALLY hit his draw.

but there's nothing wrong with calling that 3 bet. keep him in check if he gets an idea that he may be able to push you off a hand later on.

b

HDPM · #33 05-06-2003, 10:30 AM

Here is something to consider when you decided to raise the river. If you are going to fold to a 3-bet, why did you raise the river in the first place? Think about it. If you fold your raise took your hand from one with value to trash and you paid a BB for the privilege. Sklansky has discussed this issue and it was brought up at the seminar. The concept applies more in no-limit or pot-limit, especially on the turn. If you won't know what to do if raised or re-raised, a bet or raise is dangerous and can destroy the value of your hand. I think you have to call 1 more bet for a variety of reasons. If you lay a lot of hands down to a re-raise on the river, opponents will start taking some shots at you with less than the nuts. Losing an entire pot over 1 bet is a disaster mistake, so you can't lay down all the time. (I won't say always or never, etc....) On the river you need to be more sure of your chances of winning to raise and you need to call a lot of the time. So if you are going to be put to a tough decision if re-raised, think about not raising. A lot is player dependent of course and depends on how the hand played out etc... usual disclaimers.

JTG51 · #34 05-06-2003, 03:54 PM

Wow, great response Bob.

I can honestly say I've never thought of the numbers the way you laid them out. You make a really solid argument, definitely something to think about. Thanks.

Ed Miller · #35 05-06-2003, 04:44 PM

Didn't realize this hand would get so much action.. hehe.

I think JTG's preflop call was ok... I was calling with some even trashier stuff on the button in that game. Just a quick explanation for those who "think tight" out there... squeaky tight play is necessary in normal limit holdem because the preflop investment is so large... it costs usually a full bet to see the flop. Putting in a full bet with 93s is a very bad idea because you are giving up so much equity preflop that, no matter how hard you hit your hand those rare times that you connect, it will be very difficult to recoup your preflop losses from those times that you miss on the flop. When the preflop investment is only half the size, though, you can see a lot more flops because your poor-playing opponents (like me) will be putting in lots of bets postflop with all sorts of hands, while you will only be matching those bets if the flop really hits you over the head. Thus, you will (occasionally) have an enormous overlay on all the postflop action which will make up for what you give up preflop. You do have to make sure that you have that overlay almost every time you get involved, though... if you are the type of player that can't let go of 93s on a 9-high flop if there is significant action in front of you... then you probably can't play 93s profitably from any position for any preflop price.

So anyway, I think the preflop call is ok, though folding is certainly just fine as well.

JTG missed the boat on the flop, though... he has an autoraise. Flopping a flush draw and a pair is about as good as one can expect of 93s... this is the postflop overlay I was talking about (though in this freakish example, I had a bigger flush draw, and he actually has no postflop overlay... but he can't know that yet).

The turn bet is clear with two pair and a flush draw.

On the river... I dunno... I have to admit, I bet out on the river because I thought it was so obvious that I was on the flush draw given my flop and turn action that I might as well just bet out and hope for a call, because no one was going to fall for a checkraise. If JTG knew for sure that I had a flush, then I think he needs to just call on the river. If I were in his shoes, I definitely would not have raised the river. When I 3-bet, there is basically one hand I can have.

Ed Miller · #36 05-06-2003, 04:52 PM

You're absolutely right... you aren't missing out on much at all by mucking 93s under basically any circumstances. JTG was playing the player, though... at this point I think I was already drunk and had been reprimanded by the brush for being disorderly... at that point, I think you are basically printing money every time you play any hand with me, no matter how bad.

rharless · #37 05-06-2003, 05:10 PM

I have to admit, I bet out on the river because I thought it was so obvious that I was on the flush draw given my flop and turn action that I might as well just bet out and hope for a call, because no one was going to fall for a checkraise.

We have all heard "Bet, maybe they'll fold"... well, one of my favorite sayings is "Bet, maybe they'll raise." [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]

rh

PS, perhaps time for an update to the ole 2+2 profile for "Location"?

Gitz · #38 05-06-2003, 05:35 PM

The only problem I see with the hand is that you lost. Probably anything but a [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] or avoiding CO plucking a higher two pair which seems rare since if you match a 9 or 3 you fill up. So you lost to a higher flush whether it's a Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] or a 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] no big deal. Next time you'll win the hand. Of course the button is probably the only spot to play this or BB with no raises and a couple of limpers. Playing these LL games the more limpers the more I seem to lose with small flushes. That's why I say the button with just a couple of limpers.

Better luck next time

Paul

JTG51 · #39 05-06-2003, 06:18 PM

I think JTG's preflop call was ok...

I agree.

JTG missed the boat on the flop, though...

I agree.

If I were in his shoes, I definitely would not have raised the river.

I'm surprised, it seems like everyone disagrees with my raise. I'm starting to agree with you guys though.

When I 3-bet, there is basically one hand I can have.

I agree.

Like I said, train wreck.

tewall · #40 05-06-2003, 07:23 PM

I don't think losing 3 bets on the river was terrible. The question is when mk bet the river if it was more likely that he had a flush or something else. I think it's more likely he had something else, so your raise was good. I suppose you could have laid down your hand after the re-raise, but by the end the pot odds are so high you're practically forced to call.

OTOH missing the raise on the flop and missing the bet on the turn was not so good.

I agree with your assessment pre-flop. Probably pretty close to break even. If anything I would guess slightly +EV (provided your pretty sure you won't get popped).