98s.

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
call river. U need to be ahead here less than 25%...U are probably ahead here ~60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the 60% part but....puke. Call the river.

[FreakDaddy]

If you called the turn bet, why aren't you calling the river bet? I don't get it. I think there's a fair amount of time that villian has over pair and missed draw + bluff to make the call profitable.

Any reads?

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]


River: ($89) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $40</font>, Hero folds.

-----

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm speechless.

I think your read is valid.. and it's coupled by the fact that he bet perfectly.. nearly half the pot both times..

This allows you to catch a possible straight with 7/8s (if he reads you for that possiblity) by simply calling, and also gives you the option of reraising if you think he's weak. He's betting into you on purpose, and with exreme strength in my opinion. I put him on a Boat, and I think you're less than 25% to win in this situation. Great fold in my opinion

[Wayfare]

He filled up but I am still calling that river. I try not to overthink donks into hands too much...

[-Skeme-]

You sure he doesn't have 84o or 99? I mean, those are VERY likely.

[Wayfare]

84 from a 15% vpip UTG+1?

99 is possible but the other boatages seem much more likely.

[UOPokerPlayer]

I think adding your own thoughts in the OP help spurn a good discussion about the deeper parts of the hand.

So PT tells us this guy is really tight. Is this a weak lead on the flop, or standard? After he calls your raise, I put him on sets or something like 44,88-1010.

His turn lead is either trying to get a cheap showdown or do a donk-style "milking" of you with his newly found boat. Which kind of opponent is this? The kind that mini-bets his big hands because he's afraid of folding, or the kind that makes little bets in hopes you won't make him have to fold? Is he so aggressive post-flop that he'll do this with overs? Either way, I like calling and calling river. This makes the most from a weak hand, and loses the least to a bigger hand. I think raising at any point makes the worse hands go away.

Overall, PT stats are good, but they can mean different things for different players. I like to run PT for about a half hour to get a feel of the tables, and then open up GT+. This makes the stats I get more reliable, and helps work in my personal reads with PT's.

[SmileyEH]

I see a very tight player doing the exact same things with a small overpair, or also AA. River looks like a really bad fold IMO. Call/call is definitely best. I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

-SmileyEH

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good hand in this spot isn't a small overpair.