WSOP - XRay Vision Winning Chances

hmm

[AustinS34]

What if more than one person in the tournament had x-ray glasses?
and
What if all the other players knew this one player had the x-ray glasses?

[Amerretto]

Ok, if another person had x-ray glasses, I am guessing that you are going to end up in a heads up situation. In that case you are both in effect turning your cards face up, and as such it's whoever hits the best cards, coupled with playing the cards to the correct probablities, ie, not chasing a long shot draw, when the pot isnt giving you the correct odds.

If I knew they had these glasses and I was playing against them I think your only hope is to try and get them to play heads up against you early in the tournament for all there stack, pretty much with any two cards. The chances of winning the hand are slim, but imho greater than you winning if he starts to build a chip lead.

Just some points,
1st. if this was the case u wouldnt ever want to go in preflop even with aces! ur better off seeing the hands to the turn before u give a ton of action because ull be more sure to win.

2nd. when would u decide to play a draw?
if you put ur entire tourney on the line with a str8 flush draw against some guys set then ur still tossing a coin

your assumption here is that the mathmatical probability will always pan out! not the case!

I would say a perfect mathmatical player with equal cards as everyone else would have about

a 5-8% chance on winning the event.

To get to 60m, you need to take some risks and u need to hit ur draws.

Chris D. L.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]

More like 100%


[/ QUOTE ]


If this were The Price Is Right, you'd lose this guessing game.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[djoyce003]

I think the chances are significantly higher than 5%-8%. You can still afford to take chances, you just do it when you know you have WAY the best of it, and you never take them against someone that can break you.

People seem to be forgetting that you are going to win every hand where yours is the best, no matter how scary the board is because you are going to call when you know you are ahead, and you are going to win a ton of pots that you normally wouldn't win because you know your opponent has nothing. Over the course of the tournament, you are going to amass a large amount of chips and will likely not be forced to make many decisions that would put you all in. You will be putting other people all in. Barring some really unfortunate luck for like 200 hands in a row, I don't see how your chances aren't significantly higher than 50%.

Couple of examples. You have 22, opponent has 33. He raises, you call. Flop comes AK high, he bets, you raise, he folds. You didn't have the best hand, but you won.

You have 22, opponent raises KQ....board comes ace high. He bets, you call. Turn blank, he bets you call. River, blank that puts 3 flush on the board. He bets, you call or raise knowing your 2's are good and that he doesn't have anything.

You have KK....u know the BB has AA, you open fold, and lose zero with KK against AA. You would never get stacked by set over set, you'd never lose with the wrong end of a straight, or a flush smaller than someone elses flush because you'd know. I think you'd win big pots, lots of small pots, and never lose a big pot unless someone hit some miracle river card on you, and as long as you weren't all in, it's all good.

[DJ Sensei]

Perhaps another interesting question related to this:

Supposing you have the xray glasses and win, what is the % chance that you get caught (and presumably lose the money, and your integrity)?

In a feature table situation, you get dealt KK, see another player with similar stack size go all in with AA. you're busted if you call, and you're busted if you fold...

[sully4321]

[ QUOTE ]
Just some points,
1st. if this was the case u wouldnt ever want to go in preflop even with aces! ur better off seeing the hands to the turn before u give a ton of action because ull be more sure to win.

2nd. when would u decide to play a draw?
if you put ur entire tourney on the line with a str8 flush draw against some guys set then ur still tossing a coin

your assumption here is that the mathmatical probability will always pan out! not the case!

I would say a perfect mathmatical player with equal cards as everyone else would have about

a 5-8% chance on winning the event.

To get to 60m, you need to take some risks and u need to hit ur draws.

Chris D. L.

[/ QUOTE ]


simple solution here: don't chase even the best of draws. just fold and wait for a better situation, which will surely come because you can play any 2 cards with absolutely no fear of losing your whole stack. give me the glasses, i win the entire tournament 95% of the time. i make the final table 99% of the time. give sklansky the glasses, he wins 100% of the time.

i lose 100%!!

i don't know about you but i can't tear my eyes of these waitresses!!