Ok, I need professional help with this hand... can't figure it out...

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
You say you knew he had AA, but if the flop came J high, I'm sure the possibility he had AK would have crossed your mind, and if not how can you fold a 5-outer... And then on
the river, how can you fold when the pot is that big.

[/ QUOTE ]

In example, compounding errors. The best argument against playing this hand at all, IMHO. Of course, only Eugeneel knows if and when Eugeneel is capable of folding his hand in the situation you described.

[Josh W]

First let me say that I don't think of anybody here as a moron.

But I do think that the usefulness of 2+2 drops dramatically as stakes are increased. This is largely because there is a lot less discussion here on 100-200 and larger stakes, and a lot more discussion on the 20-40 level.

I used to post here a lot lot lot more often than I do now (and I'm sure many are glad for my vanishing act [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). Although my game still has holes you can drive a large truck through, the usefulness of this site isn't as overwhelming for me as it once was.

I learned how to play holdem here. I have still yet to read a poker book, but I read a ton of posts here. And once you get it ingrained in your brain that KTo isn't good UTG in a 10 handed game, and you should push draws in multihanded pots for value, and against some opponents checkraising the turn is obviously right...

Well, you quickly realize that this game is so largely player-dependant. And I could write about a turn decision, where the biggest factors in my decision are my opponents traits. So, if I want quality feedback, I have to list those traits. And if I know those traits, then I know the right decision. So posting just isn't that critical.

But I certainly don't think people here are morons...

Josh

[Josh W]

First off, let me say that I haven't read many of the other replies, so I'm sure that a lot of this has already been stated.

About it being a one outer...well, one out for the JJ to win, plus AT LEAST 4 more outs for the AA to win (2, 2, A, or A), and there's a 50% chance that the AA had another 7 outs to make a bigger flush, so that's like 3.5 outs, so, that's a total of 8.5 outs to lose the pot, so you were only about a 4:1 favorite on the turn. But, yeah, it still stings.

As for the preflop call...

Well, ya know how the answer to every poker question is "it depends"?. In this case, I think that the answer is "it doesn't matter"...

I think that it's very very very close. So close, that over time, if you play this hand one way (call) or the other (fold), your results really won't vary that much.

Look, you said that JJ was a good player. Given the preflop play, I question that. For the same reason that you put UTG on AA or KK, if JJ was really that good, he would have likewise put UTG on a bigger pair than JJ, and wouldn't have capped. Thus, if you think JJ is a good player, it makes sense to figure that you'll have to pay 3 (not 4) bets to see the flop.

That's 5:1 preflop on your second call (your third call is a nobrainer).

You are about a 4:1 dog preflop. Yes, you have to beat more hands then just AA, but most of the time that you beat AA, you'll also beat these other hands (not every time, like if they have AK, and flop comes QJT, or they have JJ, and the flop comes JTx).

So, I think it's safe to assume that you are about a 5:1 dog in the hand, and you are getting 5:1 preflop.

What about postflop (because postflop odds implications do matter in preflop pot odds)? Well, you'll likely be getting less than 3:1 to draw (as one opponent will often drop out at some point along the way). This will work against your 5:1 preflop overlay. HOWEVER, since you can accurately put your opponents on hands (at least, more accurately than they can put YOU on a hand), you'll be gaining implied odds.

So, I think that the last factor is the aggressiveness of your opponents. If you'll be able to draw cheap (i.e. one bet on the flop and turn), then the 3:1 postflop odds aren't nearly as significant as your 5:1 preflop odds.

By the same token, if they are aggressive, then they are likely to overplay against you when you make your hands, so the more significant your 3:1 preflop odds are, the more significant your implied odds are, as well.

Given all of this, and I think I've been pretty thorough, I think that it's so damn close that it really doesn't matter.

But knowing that it doesn't matter DOES matter.

Josh

[eugeneel]

Very useful post in my opinion. As of right now I stand about where you do on this issue.

When I rewrote the hand in a reader-friendly format I realized I made a mistake and changed my opinion of the JJ player to beiong a player who is unknown to me.

-Eugene

[Ed Miller]

No Eugene...

TT is better than JTs even here. The reason is what happens after the flop. TT either flops a made hand or doesn't (unless it flops a weird straight or flush draw). When TT flops a made hand, you have by far the best of it after the flop. JTs very rarely outflops AA. It usually only flops a draw to beat AA, often a weak draw like a pair or a gutshot. So you will generally not be taking the best of it even after the flop. Since you are against not one, but two big pairs, your weak draw will usually be bet out of the pot on the flop.

Your preflop call is terrible. I think you'd have to fold TT as well, but it would be closer.

Given what you say in this and other threads, I'm guessing that you haven't read HPFAP. You'd improve your game if your read it a few times.

[eugeneel]

I've read it but too long ago to remember how it supports your argument. I still disagree with you but see your point.

-Eugene