Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP - Page 4

sweetjazz · #1 06-10-2005, 06:38 PM

I explained my logic poorly in the previous post. What I meant was that folding an A gives us more (half a pot more) with KJ, plus we also get half a pot more if we fold K high. This might be enough to make check-raising right with KJ and wrong with A high.

FWIW, I am check-raising with a Q here against any semi-aggressive opponent (i.e. is not suffering from rigor mortis). I think this will induce bluffs, and that A high will call the check-raise here a lot of the time. It may also induce a 3-bet from 9's full if the opponent is really loose and aggressive.

Of course, with a 9, I'm betting out and calling a raise.

SL__72 · #2 06-10-2005, 06:20 PM

I still like this raise holding an ace. You are gaining 4BB if he folds an ace, losing nothing if he calls with one and only losing 1BB when he reraises (assuming a fold). I think him having and laying down an A is probably at least 1/4 as likely as him coming back over the top here or calling with a better hand.

SL__72 · #3 06-10-2005, 06:08 PM

I think this is a good bet if you feel he will lay down Ax 1/4 of the time, which I think he probably would.

sweetjazz · #4 06-10-2005, 07:02 PM

He needs to lay down Ax more than 1/4 of the time. Laying it down 1/4 of the time will profit it us only if we are assuming that he has Ax. And you're comparing check-raising to folding, which ignores the fact that we likely have to at least call in case he's bluffing with a counterfeited two pair or JT.

He could well have TT, JJ, AA, KK, a Q or a 9, and I bet he does have these hands a not insignificant proportion of the time.

I think he has to be a player who will bet A high in the first place when checked to, in order for this analysis to even get started. Then, let us assume that 30% of the time he's betting a hand above that beats us and is not folding to a check-raise (though if he folds TT or JJ here....that's great for us), 20% he's betting a busted draw or small PP that can't call our check-raise, and 50% of the time he has Ax. Let's assume that there is an x probability he will fold Ax to the check-raise. (For simplicity, let's assume he doesn't have Kx.)

Then our check-raise nets us: -2 BB 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +8 BB .5x of the time, and -2BB .5(1-x) of the time. This equals -0.6 + 1.6 + 4x - (1 - x) = 5x BB.

Just calling nets us, -1 BB 80% of the time and +8 BB 20% of the time, which is +0.8 BB.

Thus, we need 5x > 0.8 or x > 0.16.

For AJ, the analysis would be:
-2 BB 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +8 BB .5x, +4 BB .5(1 - x), which amounts to an EV of 2x + 3 BB if we raise.
And -2 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +4 BB 50% of the time, which amounts to an EV of 3 BB if we just call.

Interestingly, this gives x > 0.

If this model is reasonable, check-raising with KJ is better than calling (and also better than folding, which should be obvious). And check-raising with AJ here is even better.

Two possible flaws with the model:
(1) We're assuming villain has Ax a lot here. If there is some chance he would check behind with Ax in this spot, that must be accounted for.
(2) We're assuming he won't bluff 3-bet us off the best hand here ever. That's a pretty reasonable assumption, but it should be noted nevertheless.

oreogod · #5 06-10-2005, 08:57 PM

That is a beautiful play.

Evan · #6 06-11-2005, 11:16 PM

After I finished playing last night I was watching GoT and then played for him while he went to look for something. After he came back I kept playing while he watched and this hand came up. If it hadn't been for the combination of talking with him about similar plays and this thread I would NEVER have thought of this play. As soon as the river card hit I thought it looked like a good place to try to steal the pot, then he said, "see, this is a spot where I'd try a river check raise." I haven't had a moment like that, where something completely new clicked, in long time...it was pretty exciting.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

cassady · #7 06-11-2005, 11:35 PM

what do you put button on prior to him folding to the check-raise?

Evan · #8 06-12-2005, 12:12 AM

Most likely a bluff, a 5 or a 6.

EDIT: By 'bluff' I mean a continuation of a semi bluff, not something completely random, most likely.

Luv2DriveTT · #9 06-12-2005, 12:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After I finished playing last night I was watching GoT and then played for him while he went to look for something. After he came back I kept playing while he watched and this hand came up. If it hadn't been for the combination of talking with him about similar plays and this thread I would NEVER have thought of this play. As soon as the river card hit I thought it looked like a good place to try to steal the pot, then he said, "see, this is a spot where I'd try a river check raise." I haven't had a moment like that, where something completely new clicked, in long time...it was pretty exciting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell us about the Button Evan, what were his stats like? Is he the type of player that can fold 56s here? A5o? 5x? Ax? I like this play a lot, knowing more about the opponent helps us get into the groove.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Evan · #10 06-12-2005, 12:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is he the type of player that can fold 56s here? A5o? 5x? Ax?

[/ QUOTE ]
No one is folding any of those hands, other than 5x, ever.

Button is 37/19.5/1.56 over 1662 hands.