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#32
09-06-2005, 07:58 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
Note: I don't want see the term "pot odds" referred to preflop play once in this thread. it's a pet peeve of mine. In most cases, they don't apply [/ QUOTE ] Is it possible for you state in general why they don't apply. Perhaps when they do and don't apply. Do you not think they apply when you think you are drawing? Sometimes I feel they do apply, like when I am sitting in the BB with 33 or 65s. Then again they may not apply when I am sitting in the SB with T9s. Where does the line grey? Is she is or is she aint? Shed the light so this can be my pet peeve too? 
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#33
09-06-2005, 08:01 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
A good post most worthy of discussion. I'm not sure what the answers are, but I'm starting to believe that most players defend way too much. Check that, I KNOW most players defend way too much, but I'm starting to believe that even most GOOD players defend way too much. As you point out, OOP with a marginal hand is an extremely difficult situation which all but the very best players are unlikely to handle properly on a regular basis. To paraphrase what you said in your post, you can spew a lot of chips in these situations. I highly doubt there are many players who would give up much EV if they defended their blinds 20% less.
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#34
09-06-2005, 08:03 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
I highly doubt there are many players who would give up much EV if they defended their blinds 20% less. [/ QUOTE ] If the guy to your right figures out that you don't defend very often at all (as they do in higher limits) you're giving up a significant amount of money.
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#35
09-06-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
ok I think I know what I meant. basically he's raising because he thinks his hand is worth 2 bets. our hand doesn't need to be worth 2 bets to call. only one. [/ QUOTE ] but does it only need to be worth one to call, because he put 2 in, since we now have those good odds [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] lol, im sorry thief, Im just being a wank [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#36
09-06-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
...how much they lose in the blinds that would be interesting... [/ QUOTE ] 119k hands in current DB for 10/20: SB - (.09), VPIP - 31.98, Folded SB to steal - 83.92, BB - (.13), VPIP - 26.87, Folded BB to steal - 52.51, Folded to steal HU - 45.31 ___1___
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#37
09-06-2005, 08:06 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
Do you hate it more than when he just calls and then CR the flop ? [/ QUOTE ] yes. this is my [censored] pet peeve. because they only do it when i miss and i have to make a marginal judgment about calling down or folding [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#38
09-06-2005, 08:12 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
Great post Sthief. [ QUOTE ] - We need to get to showdown as often as we can. This is is citical in making sure you win close to as much as you should. For example, if you have 54 against QJ, you'll win 37% of the time hot and cold, but if you're checking and folding the flop 90% of the time, then you're obviously going to win less than 10% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Isn't that not true? It seems it would be OK to fold out 90% of the time if it maximizes our BB's won? [/ QUOTE ] Read the first few sections in the chapter on SH play in HPFAP.
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#39
09-06-2005, 08:15 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
On a similar tangent, I think it would be interesting for some players to do mathematical analysis of defending out of the big blind vs some hand ranges. It is fairly easy to do using poker stove, and I may just do it myself if i can free up and hour or 2.
I would like to see something like this. A given player that raises preflop from the button 10%, then a player that steal-raises 20%, the 30%. analyze what range of hands these percentages probably include, then figure what hands would show a profit for us when we defend out of the bb. (assume SB folds for now) From the math side, we are rarely going to find a hand that is a 3.5-1 dog preflop, so we have to do some kind of analysis of the post flop EV of each hand. We are OOP against a laggy player with a weak holding. How many BB on average will we lose with hand A against this range? Hand B against the same range? We could just use theory to determine an estimated expected win/loss of each hand. There is no reason to calculate the value of each individual hand, because we can just get relative mins, maxs, and medians. e.g. take AA, 22, 72 and then some median hand for each, q6 and medium ace and medium king, 77. Then can scale the values we get to represent other hands that we didn't calculate exactly. How many bets will you expect to earn when you defend with aces out of big blind, with 7-2, with q-6? and with 22? then compare EV of calling vs 3 betting. To do this comparison vs the hand range of the opponent, we will have to consider this... We take our min, max and median hand, and then compare it to every given possible hand combination within the villains range. Not every individual hand, but a hand representative of every hand. E.g. an over pair (just take 77 to represent every over pair 77-AA; while these values wont be exact, the difference shouldn't be enough to matter), a hand with 1 over card and 1 under card etc. If we assume we have deuces, the only worthwhile comparisons would be to do an overpair (77), 2 connecting overs(j10), 2 non connecting overs (A7), and a hand with a deuce (q2). (and maybe 22 if you want to get technical) Then we can assign values. Say against 77 we expect to lose 3bb(random number) with 22. We then plug this into his hand range. If villains steal raise % is 30%, and in his hand rage we assume he steals with all pocket pairs, and all pocket pairs account for 1/3 of his total hand range. Then, (.33 x -3bb) + (probability of hand x net gain or loss) + same over and over until we account for all 30%. By doing this we could get a pretty accurate range of correct defending standards against certain steal raisers. We can use variations on this method to find how much we will earn 3betting vs calling and check raising the flop. This is just off the top of my head, so it maybe too simple or silly, but I feel we lack mathematical models in many of our discussions. truth
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#40
09-06-2005, 08:23 PM
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Re: Blind Defense (In General)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Note: I don't want see the term "pot odds" referred to preflop play once in this thread. it's a pet peeve of mine. In most cases, they don't apply [/ QUOTE ] Is it possible for you state in general why they don't apply. Perhaps when they do and don't apply. Do you not think they apply when you think you are drawing? Sometimes I feel they do apply, like when I am sitting in the BB with 33 or 65s. Then again they may not apply when I am sitting in the SB with T9s. Where does the line grey? Is she is or is she aint? Shed the light so this can be my pet peeve too? [/ QUOTE ] In a sense, it is pot odds. The thing is that you can't just take 3.5-1 in a vacuum. You have to account for how much you lose (or win) with the hand post flop. With the weakest hands you will defend with, you will lose a little bit on average post flop. So long as you loose less than 2.5 small bets post flop on average, you should play. Get the idea behind it?
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