luck vs skill

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]
i think its wrong to view poker as X luck and X skill - its a game of skill - virtually all games of skill involve luck in the sense you use that word

[/ QUOTE ]
I think, you've watched Rounders too much. It is plainly obvious that different 5 or 10 players end up at the final WSoP table each year. It is not wrong to see poker as a game where chance plays a much larger role than skill in each hand.

By the way, I agree with your argument that all games of skill involve an element of chance. In chess, a tricky situation might arise where world class players would consider two moves to be a toss up, while the full correct analysis shows that one move is superior. If a player picks the wrong one, his opponent gets lucky. Or a player might choose an opening for which his opponent has just discovered a superior continuation. If situations like that didn't come up, the result of a game of chess between two opponents would be fully determined before the game.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line to be a winning player in the LONG RUN is 0% luck and 100% skill. The better player eventually takes the weaker player's money. The luck factor is what effects how long it takes not as to who wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more!

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not overstate the case. Luck can make the difference between a long term win rate of 1.1 BB/hr vs. 1.3 BB/hr even over a very long term.

Add up the 10 biggest pots you have ever won, and think how your long term win rate would be different if you just lost those extra 10 pots. For a lot of us, this would make a noticable dent in our bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

If luck factor has not evened out then by definition you are still in the short run.

I know this seems like splitting hairs but to new players it is very important to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

There was a study done on this in Cardplayer magazine once (I think). It took computer simulations of "identical" players and after simulating many, many games (can't remember the exact number, but it was more than we could hope to play in our lifetime) the numbers were shown to fluctuate about .10%. There IS luck long term, but it's a very small percentage of your results.

[MicroBob]

"Are we discussing a hand, a session, or a winning player in the long run? If we are dicussing winning or being a profitable player annually it is 100% skill and 0% luck."


i think it is POSSIBLE to be a losing player in a given year in spite of tremendous skill.
to be a losing player in an entire lifetime despite being a tremendously skilled player is pretty minimal.

if you are talking about a given hand then luck and skill is very close to 50/50.
if you are talking about a given session then you need to define what a session is.
in a one-hour B&M session a skilled player might expect to come away 'ahead' 55% of the time....afterall, it is only 30 hands or so.....3 measly orbits.
in a 10-hour session the skilled player should beat a table of fish closer to 65% of the time i suppose.
in a year-long 'session' (3000 hours) that skilled player should beat-up on a table full of fish 99% of the time.
in a life-long session (100k hours) you should come out decently ahead 99.999999999% of the time if you have an adequate amount of skill no matter what the hands are if you are up against mediocre to less-than-mediocre oppoennts.

over this stretch of time you should get pocket-aces close to 1-in-220 times just like everyone else....but you will maximize the wins on them and minimize the losses.


conceiveably it's possible to come out ahead after 100k hands even if you suck. but it's also technically 'possible' to get dealt pocket-aces every other hand over this time-frame even though the odds are pretty ridiculous.

[HajiShirazu]

I try to play the same way no matter what. Sometimes, I'll have 77 and raise two limpers, the flop will come ace high, and I'll bet representing the ace. Then I'll catch a 7 on the turn and a 7 on the river and beat the guy who flopped a set of eights.
Other times, I'll have 77 and raise two limpers, the flop will come A high with a 7, I'll bet all the way, and the turn and river will be a 5 and 6 and the guy with J4o will win a 25bb pot.