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#31
06-20-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In this hand, the flop is a clear fold. [/ QUOTE ] 11-to-1 with 2-overs and a backdoor straight-draw is NOT a CLEAR fold. [/ QUOTE ] How often are our overs good against a preflop 3-bettor from the BB with a limper, LP raiser, and SB calling? This reeks of reverse implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] Even if you discount the over-outs in half and add 1 out for the backdoor draw we're still getting 11-to-1 with 4 outs. I'm not hesitating to see the turn card in this situation and then re-evaluating. 
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#32
06-20-2005, 01:33 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
Only discount our overcards to half? What is he 3betting from the BB here?
AA-TT? AK and AQs? Let's say all those AA - 6 KK - 6 QQ - 3 JJ - 3 TT - 3(on the flop, this is what we know) AK - 16 AQs - 4 So, forgetting about the backdoor straight because it's always there: 12 hands where you need runner-runner (AA, KK) 3 hands you have 3 outs (JJ) 6 hands you need runner-runner pairing (QQ, TT) 16 hands you have 6 outs against redraws (AK) 4 hands you have 3 outs (AQs) This really feels like a bad spot.
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#34
06-20-2005, 02:15 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
Only discount our overcards to half? What is he 3betting from the BB here? AA-TT? AK and AQs? Let's say all those AA - 6 KK - 6 QQ - 3 JJ - 3 TT - 3(on the flop, this is what we know) AK - 16 AQs - 4 So, forgetting about the backdoor straight because it's always there: 12 hands where you need runner-runner (AA, KK) 3 hands you have 3 outs (JJ) 6 hands you need runner-runner pairing (QQ, TT) 16 hands you have 6 outs against redraws (AK) 4 hands you have 3 outs (AQs) This really feels like a bad spot. [/ QUOTE ] He doesn't have those hands. I had him at something like 16/8/2.5 over a thousand hands or so. If he had an overpair, he was betting it, 100% guaranteed. Of course, on the flop, yeah, the math is still valid since I didn't know about the turn check.
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#36
06-20-2005, 02:54 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't have those hands. I had him at something like 16/8/2.5 over a thousand hands or so. If he had an overpair, he was betting it, 100% guaranteed. Of course, on the flop, yeah, the math is still valid since I didn't know about the turn check. [/ QUOTE ] This, accompanied by the fact that he's an OOP TAG, makes mmbt0ne's range of hands MORE likely. Given your flop and turn play, you will have a difficult time convincing a TAG that you're holding a ten. You're right in believing that raising this river is the only way you'll win this pot, but that doesn't make the entire hand +EV as a whole.
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#37
06-20-2005, 03:13 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1. QJo 60% favorite against a random hand, not against the hand of the UTG limper. [/ QUOTE ] The original poster describes the UTG limper as "extremely loose." His hand is probably quite close to a random one in value. [/ QUOTE ] well, that depends on the definition of very loose and whether the UTG knows the concept of position. even if he doesn`t adjust to position and plays 60 % of his hands, his hand is MUCH better than a random hand! [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 2. there is a pretty high risk to get reraised by one of the 4 players yet to act, holding a FAR superior hand to QJo. [/ QUOTE ] In my playing experience, three-bets are fairly rare. I'll agree that if you are three-bet, it's likely that you are in big, big trouble, but I can't for the life of me figure out how you'd be able to prove that the probability of being three-bet is "pretty high." You might even get a hand that was going to raise behind you (such as ATo) to fold! That'd be great. Preflop play is an interesting animal, because it is the one area in the game that lends itself to charts and absolutes and "if x, then y." But in actual practice, it's quite variable. Poker hands are not played in a vacuum. While it is usually incorrect to raise QJo, that doesn't mean that there aren't times where it is appropriate to do so. This is likely one of those times. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] well, there aren`t so many 3 bets, but maybe about 15% of the time (if the remaining players 3 bet it with 10s or better AK and AQ which is a reasonable assumption, regarding to the image of UTG and hero). and when nobody 3 bets it, someone will cold call or call from the blinds about half the time or more. that leaves you with a chance to isolate UTG of maybe 45%. and if he happens to have as weak a holding as A6o or K7s hero is behind anyway. that doesn't sound like a favorable situation, does it?
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#38
06-20-2005, 03:20 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
yes, if the isolation chance would be like 90% or so and the UTG guy is really VERY VERY loose (and almost completely unaware of position), it would be a good play. i do agree with that.
with "high" i ment something above 15% plus a very big chance that someone else will call or cold call (maybe 40 - 50%). if the remaining players would reraise with Ts or better, AK or AQ they would reraise this often while holding a far superior hand. when they call or cold call they will very often have hands that have QJo badly beaten as well, like AJ or KQ.
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#39
06-20-2005, 03:36 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
well, there aren`t so many 3 bets, but maybe about 15% of the time (if the remaining players 3 bet it with 10s or better AK and AQ which is a reasonable assumption, regarding to the image of UTG and hero). and when nobody 3 bets it, someone will cold call or call from the blinds about half the time or more. that leaves you with a chance to isolate UTG of maybe 45%. and if he happens to have as weak a holding as A6o or K7s hero is behind anyway. that doesn't sound like a favorable situation, does it? [/ QUOTE ] Do you have the math for this? With just a handful of players behind us, I really find the estimation that we'll be three-bet 15% of the time to be high. Secondly, the fact that we may be behind to something like A6o or K7s isn't a big deal. The preflop play puts us in position to win the hand unimproved with a bet on the flop or the turn. So not only are we winning when we do have the best hand at showdown, we're also winning some percentage of the time that we actually get a better hand to fold and we take the pot down without improving. You're right to consider the frequency of the blinds calling, though I have no idea from where you got the 45-50% number. -McGee
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#40
06-20-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you were villian, would you fold AK in this situation? [/ QUOTE ] Yes - because I wouldn't be expecting Hero to be raising 2 players on a pure bluff. I don't think that many 2/4 TAGs are calling A-high in this situation. [/ QUOTE ] What hand do you put villian on? Or do you just say "he wouldn't raise me without a hand" and not worry about what he might have?
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