Beating the Party 10+1, Part 2

[blackaces13]

I'm saying I would usually only bet this amount when its bubble/steal time for the most part. However, this is also usually the time when I'm doing the most bluffing.

Hopefully in any single SNG I haven't played nearly enough hands for my opponents to have a read on my betting patterns. Also, and I think this is important, since the few flop bets I've probably made to this point have been pot sized (or larger) what does an opponent make of a now 1/2 pot sized bet?

It is easy to assume that he would sense it as a weakness, but it could just as easily be interpreted as strength and me trying to "sell" my hand. Add to this the fact that I still believe that a 1/2 pot sized bet (which is still fairly large at the Party level 4 or above) will still almost never be called unless I am behind and still provides me with valuable info for 50% off and it seems to me to be the superior play.

I'm not saying that this is the way to go but I'd like to hear arguments against it which take into account the fact that it is Party 10+1 and most opponents are fairly obvious and not very observant.

[jakoye]

I tried this last night and it seemed to work out for me. Of course it was only two tables, so no broad picture can be painted here. But, like you said, the pots are so big as the blinds rise, it doesn't seem to make much sense to be throwing 500 chips in a blind steal attempt when you could throw 250 and get the same result.

The question is, do you actually get the same result as you would if you had made a pot-sized bet? Are you more likely to get calls or reraises with a 1/2 pot-sized bet? Not sure if there are answers for those questions besides looking at your end results using this strategy and comparing them with your results using the pot-sized bet strategy.

I'm gonna keep trying it and I'll let you know where it takes me.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
It's 30-1 against making your flush (and chasing a paired ace is just gonna hurt you). At almost no stage is anyone's stack much more than 30x the BB so even if you do manage to bust someone, you are not getting very good return for you risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must mean on the flop, the odds of making a flush by the river are 10-1.


[ QUOTE ]
The worst thing that can happen is that you catch a flush draw because you are still 2-1 against making it, and you are bound to flush a lot of money down the drain with a nut flush draw. They look so promising, but they are really not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will have to respectfully agree to disagree, to me it depends on how many people are in the pot with you, if it's early on and you have 4 or 5 to the flop, you can stick 100 or so in, and easily get 2 callers (depending on the board). The players I've seen are only to happy to give their stacks away with a worse flush or top pair even.

Regards ML

[papa smurf]

Aleo, what is your win rate on 10+1's.
And why bet the pot with a monster hand ? is this only because of the type of players at PP ?

[AleoMagus]

With a (huge) monster hand I might not be inclined to actually bet the pot, but with hands like top pair I always bet close to the amount in the pot or more if I figure I have the best hand.

The reason that players tend to bet the pot on the flop is becasue you do not want to give any draws the correct odds to call, and betting the pot will usually do this. Technically, you could determine a more appropriate betting amount based upon any given board and what kinds of draws there are out there but the pot size tends to be a rough and ready answer that is usually correct if you figure yourself for the best hand.

Mike Caro has a good (free) audio lecture on Cardplayer.com about why he thinks players shouldn't bet the pot in big bet hold'em. It is worth listening to. Still, I think while he might be right about ring games, in tourneys survival is key and I just don't want a call with a vulnerable hand.

The reason why you should not check monster hands is that the most likely hands which are going to pay you off are draws of one kind or another and you want to make them pay while they still have hope and unseen cards to come. If you give them a free turn (for example), they will be less inclined to call a bet with only one card yet to come. Furthermore, as the pot gets bigger, players are less and less likely to get away from a hand and if you know that you have a lock, you want to gradually build the pot so that they become committed for all of their chips by the end (or a significant portion anyways)

These answers are (as ever) 'it depends' answers but should suffice as a basic explanation anyways.

My win rate at PP 10+1 after my last 200ish is about
~45% in the money
~19% 1st
~8% 2nd
~18% 3rd

for an ROI of just over 41% and about $4.50/t

My results are largely contingent on how much I play. I was playing 200+ each month at one point and was getting worse results and played less than 50/mo prior to that and was getting better results.

Keep in mind however that the strategy laid out in this thread in NOT how I acheived these results. I do play similar to this (especially in the early rounds) but on the bubble my play is a lot more complicated to describe and very dependent on a lot of other factors.

Followed close to the letter, I suspect that this strategy would be about break even or a small winner. You'd still need some prior ability to not make big mistakes on the bubble though.

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

Yeah, 30-1 is off, but I think we are both wrong about the odds

If you are dealt and two suited cards, the odds of: flopping a flush is 118-1
Flopping a four flush is 8.14-1

If you flop a 4 flush, the odds of completing that flush by the river are 1.86-1

this means that from preflop to river your chances of turning Axs into a flush are about 15-1 against.

A lot better than my first statement, but still not good in my opinion. I know a lot of people play draws like these and I know some even do it profitably, but I think it takes good judgement and you need big multi-way pots and position to make it worthwhile.

Regards
Brad S

[Wynton]

I just saw this thread, which is excellent, but had one question: does the logic here apply equally to the 1-table sitngo tournaments at pokerstars, which I understand starts with more chips and might progress more slowly?

I ask because I play tournaments exclusively at pokerstars, and have never tried party.

[AleoMagus]

I guess it depends

This guide is intended not to describe optimal play, but more to keep players out of trouble while making small profits relatively easy.

So, I'd say yeah... if you use this kind of plan at the pokerstars 5+.50 and maybe even at the 10+1, it might make a weak player better. Interestingly, the original recipient of this plan (when I first devised it) is still struggling at Party, but has since become a fairly long term winner at the small buy-in stars tourneys.

The fact is though, with stars structure, I would personally be playing more hands in the early rounds as you can afford to play hands that might pay off big. Hands like 87s which I would usually toss even in late position on Party's 10+1, I will certainly play on Stars. This has a lot to do with implied odds. With the deeper stacks on stars, I can make my hand and bust another player for 100x the cost of limping in. On party, I'm looking at little more than half that and I am already close to shortstacked which means I don't want to be playing speculative hands anyways. Add to this the fact that I will see a lot more hands each round and it means that you can afford to actually 'play poker' more.

Similarly, on stars early, if I flop a four flush and the stacks are still deep relative to the blinds, it's possible that calling a pot sized bet will only cost 45-60 chips. Out of a stack of 1500, I might decide to call if it is this cheap. I know I am not getting proper odds on this call, but if the flop is consistent with a player who will bust himself if I make my hand, those implied odds are too good to pass up. On party, I'm looking at much less payoff for these kinds of gambles and I'll avoid drawing hands a lot more.

Another big and important change would be your own willingness to get all-in with good, but not huge hands. On party, it is not uncommon to raise PF with a hand like AK, hit top pair top kicker on the flop and eventually take that hand to an all-in. Because a pot sized bet will likely be a significant portion of your stack anyways, if you are raised all-in it is probably correct to call unless the flop is overly uniform.

On stars, the really BIG pots in the early stages tend to go a bit more to hands like two pair or trips, so you should be a bit more cautious about taking top pair all the way. This requires some judgement I suppose, but it is definitely an important consideration.

On stars, the really great players will eat you alive if you use a 'plan' as straightforward as this guide is. It is pretty effective even 'as is' at the very small buy ins, but requires major changes the further up you go.

There are a great many players on this forum who could say a lot more about how stars need to be played differently. I myself play Party and the Party skins 90%+ of the time, whereas guys like Praying Mantis, Heyrocker, T Perkin, and many others play a lot more at stars.

If I were you I'd at least consider playing at Party a bit just to see how it is there. You might find that as bad as the structure is, it has a lot more profit potential in the long run. I go back and forth on this issue though. This month I like party I guess.

Regards
Brad S

[ddubois]

I read this thread before last week, remembered the advice therein, but did the dirty deed anyways. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

With an above average stack around level 4ish, 5-handed, I had A5s on the button, tried for a steal 3xBB, got called, flopped K44 two of my suit, semi-bluffed ~1/3rd of the pot, got raised ~2/3rd of the pot, called, picked up the gutshot with an offsuit 2 on the turn, I check, he pushed. I thought for a long time, figured he had a K, and hoped my 3, A, and suit outs were good. I don't think I really had the pot odds to call, but with so much in the pot I felt committed; it's either hit and go on to easily win money with a massive stack, or be short-stacked and playing aggressively with the worst of it. So I called and of course I missed. Turns out he called my preflop steal with A4s and hit trips. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I did manage to double up twice with lucky desparation pushses and actually had a playable amount of chips, but stupidly maintained needless desparation-level aggression (tilt from the A5s mistake), and pushed on the button with KT. I ran into an ace and I was out.

Morale of the story: Don't let yourself get committed with draws. On the flop, consider the reverse-implied-odds of the turn call you'll have to make if you want to see the river!

[djcolts]

I'm a new poker player - I've played a Party for about 2 weeks. I've done OK with this strategy so far in 10+1 SNGs - but it seems that I'm shortstacked with 4 or 5 players left a very large percentage of the time. What kind of adjustments can I make to prevent this from happening? And, when I am shortstacked - I don't feel that I can wait for cards as good as the ones suggested in this guide - I ended up being forced to go all-in with any A or K by level 5 or 6 - no matter how weak the kicker.