10-20 NL at Bellagio

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing the river, to be called by what?


[/ QUOTE ]

AK, AJ, Ax....his most likely holdings.
most players won't smooth call flop and turn with two pair/set on this type board.

however while they may very well call with the aforementioned hands they will most likely check behind on river.

point is while they may very well call a river push it is highly unlikely checking to them will induce a bluff.

[John Ho]

I don't see why Ax is his most likely holding. Doesn't the lack of aggression and the river Ace make it more likely he had a pair and gutshot than Ax? And preflop he limped in the cutoff and called a raise from the buttom with 7 way action so he should have Ax suited if anything so that makes it less likely. How about KQ or QJ?

Our hero led into a huge field on an AQT flop so I imagine even two pair here is worried about KJ. In my estimation on the river you are most likely up against a boat, a busted bottom two on the flop, or a busted pair and gutshot on the flop. I find Ax to be far less likely and thus I check the river.

This is all of course assuming I had no read on the guy with the OP stated.

[Diplomat]

For the sake of argument let's assume his hand range is AK, AJ, Ax. Are you saying those hands do not bet the river, but will call an all-in bet, or rather will call an all-in bet more often than bet the river?

Assuming that your answer is yes, what happens when you throw in hands such as KQ?

Reverse the roles. How often would you bet the river with an ace in your hand? How often would the average 10-20 player bet the river?

I think this is another hand where the analysis would be much different if we didn't know what the hero held.

-Diplomat

[whodaman]

i shove

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
For the sake of argument let's assume his hand range is AK, AJ, Ax. Are you saying those hands do not bet the river, but will call an all-in bet, or rather will call an all-in bet more often than bet the river?

Assuming that your answer is yes, what happens when you throw in hands such as KQ?

Reverse the roles. How often would you bet the river with an ace in your hand? How often would the average 10-20 player bet the river?

I think this is another hand where the analysis would be much different if we didn't know what the hero held.

-Diplomat


[/ QUOTE ]

i would never bet this river with an ace in my hand.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why Ax is his most likely holding. Doesn't the lack of aggression and the river Ace make it more likely he had a pair and gutshot than Ax? And preflop he limped in the cutoff and called a raise from the buttom with 7 way action so he should have Ax suited if anything so that makes it less likely. How about KQ or QJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

you are absolutely right....i misread OP, and thought that villian was the preflop raiser.

this does change the analysis somewhat...however i still think hero's hand is good the vast majority of the time....now the question is the best way to play the river.

i personally would have gone for a checkraise on the turn, as it is i'm tired and a little buzzed so i don't really feel like rehashing the hand given the new info...

i'm sure you guys are more then capable of handling it.

[Mikey]

wow, you really know how to narrow a hand down.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, you really know how to narrow a hand down.


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, good post. thanks for contributing.

[Diplomat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For the sake of argument let's assume his hand range is AK, AJ, Ax. Are you saying those hands do not bet the river, but will call an all-in bet, or rather will call an all-in bet more often than bet the river?

Assuming that your answer is yes, what happens when you throw in hands such as KQ?

Reverse the roles. How often would you bet the river with an ace in your hand? How often would the average 10-20 player bet the river?

I think this is another hand where the analysis would be much different if we didn't know what the hero held.

-Diplomat


[/ QUOTE ]

i would never bet this river with an ace in my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking.

-Diplomat

[John Ho]

Unlikely he has AK. A bunch of limpers preflop and he just calls in the cutoff...then the button raises a modest amount...then back to him and he just calls with all the dead money in there?

Possible...but not likely.