QQ UTG vs. good players

I think JJ/TT are much more likely here for BB than AA/KK.

[pho75]

The hands you beat are JJ-66 (36 ways). The hands that beat you are 55,44,33,54,43,A2 (43 ways). The times he has 65 and bets probably cancel out the times he has 67 and bets. Against a single opponent I'd call. The problem is, that a call could price in some draws, or you could get raised. I think I would fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. The hands you beat are JJ-66 (36 ways). The hands that beat you are 55,44,33,54,43,A2 (43 ways). The times he has 65 and bets probably cancel out the times he has 67 and bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving incorrect weight to 54, 43, A2. We should at least assume that villain is only playing suited variants of these hands, if we are going to consider them with the same probability as the overpairs. I don't see a solid BB calling here with A2o, 4/3o, and 5/4o very often.

This might be a tough hand for me to jump in on my first time, but I'll give it a try.

For me in this situation there are two concerns. One is clearly the possible range of hands the BB is leading with, but for me almost as big is the action still behind me. You note that both are solid and agressive.

The call from the BB could actually be any number of the things the other people here have listed - he's completing the action, he's getting 3-1 on his money; it's unlikely he's got some kind of any-hand-garbage.

My gut here, coming from the pot bet and your read on him as solid and aggressive, is saying he hit a set and he's just fastplaying it trying to protect his hand against the [censored] straight draw. That depends, maybe, on his read of the other players in the hand and whether he thinks anyone is going to call down that PF raise with something like A2 or 76. My experience has been that at this level you're going to see those kinds of PF calls more often than you'd like and it's a legitimate concern.

Honestly I'm not too worried about the BB having something like two pair here. I feel mid-to-high-mid pockets (say 88-TT) is a lot more likely. PF the BB is getting nice odds to call with halfway decent cards (AXs, maybe) but two pair hands seem unlikely.

None of this, though, takes into account that you've still got action behind you. THAT'S what really worries me in this situation. I don't know if you honestly have to worry about what he's got in his hand - off the top of my head, calling a decent PF reraise, he's a solid/aggressive player, prolly mid-high-to-high pockets (99 to JJ, say) or strong overcards (AK, AQ) - so much as you have to worry about what he's going to do with it.

There is also the not-insignificant fact that the flop bet from the BB represents almost 20% of his stack, and that the MP has you covered and then some. The former leads me to believe he's fastplaying a strong hand and looking to protect it against the (admittedly silly) draws out there, and the latter just makes me worry.

Options are, then:

You can raise the BB, and that probably gets rid of the MP, but now you're in a situation where you're committing a good chunk of cash to a pot where there's a decent change you're way behind. You do that and I'm guessing that if the BB doesn't just repop you all in he's pushing on the turn no matter what. So you're basically committed there, which is not a situation I like (nor would you, I imagine).

You can just call, but then you're running the risk that the MP behind you pops a big reraise looking to isolate you between himself and the original bettor, thus flushing your call down the drain.

Or you can fold, and feel generally crap about folding QQ to a weak board and a strong bet from a good player. Well, maybe you won't feel too bad about that.

My gut reaction to the whole situation: though I know that generally speaking it's against poker dogma, I think you have to consider that fact that you've only got seven bucks invested at this point, and I think you let it go and curse the gods.

K

[trumpman84]

I'm raising to $60-$70 here. If he pushes, I'm folding..it sucks to fold with about 2/5 of our stack in here, but if he's solid/aggressive, I don't think he'll 3 bet us on a bluff or semi bluff when it looks like we're committed to the hand..

If he flat calls my raise, and the turn is a non A, 2, 6, or 7, I'm all-in..he's getting my stack then if I'm beat, he played the hand to perfection.

If he flat calls my raise, and the turn IS a scare card mentioned above, I check behind, probably calling <$50 or so on a blank river and folding to anything higher.