Shamu's Large NFL Favorites Thread

[Easy E]

3 double-digit favs this week

Enough of this "It is! It isn't! It is! You're stupid! No, you're stupid!" arguing. It's clear we will never agree and that's fine. But in the spirit of this thread, here's one more volley. Mods you can lock it after this if you want, or maybe let sublime get in one more jab and then lock it.

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lol, except you were the one who said "denver is my best/biggest bet of the week".


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Ok congratulations. You caught my bluff. I actually had several best bets of the week. I was merely trying to get across the point that I thought Denver was a good bet. The exaggeration was to offset your hyperbole of the burning money. Go ahead and prosecute me for perjury.

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every single sharp bettor i know was on the jets (these are guys who bet for a living and year in and year out cash tickets at 54% and up rates).

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Great! Then it must be set in stone then right?! Anyone that bets on Denver is an idiot! Guess what? Several sharp bettors who bet for a living also had Denver. And now they are 2 units richer than your sharp bettor friends! You have no point.

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the discussion then went in the direction of WA lines and you saying this isn't the stock market (which it basically is, but whatever)

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It's not an efficient market. If it was, then there would be no profits to be made. But that's fine, we can disagree if you want.

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and that WA lines can be beaten. which they can, but not by picking DD favorites in an inflated marketplace.

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This is the only sentence that actually talks about the issue at hand. I think it can be beat, you think it can't. Again, that's fine.
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fast forward to this thread. you post a -9 favorite (which i had bet in a blindly +EV myself) that was up 34-0 and call me out saying you will post these hidden gems and show the world how good you are at finding hidden gems. to which i respond that the subset you are using as a trial is so small it will take years before any significant record can be formed (either winning or losing) and you claim i am running away in fright that i may be wrong!


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Nice flaming, some deserved, but mostly just useless babble that's already been stated many times.

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lmao. here is what i gather. you admit betting large favorites in of itself is a bad strategy, yet you want to should the world that you can stick your hands in a pile of [censored] and come out with a gold bit every now and again. good luck with that!

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Pretty much, yeah. Why wouldn't you be trying to gather every bit of gold that you can get? But if you want to leave money on the table I guess that's your choice.

And while we are summarizing what an idiot the other guy is, let me give you my perspective. A forum member posts a (strongly) opinionated post about a particular play he likes, but is still looking for some feedback/discussion. A bunch of people respond, some agree, some disagree, but everything is still fine and good. Then you feel the need to come in on your high horse and mock everyone that disagrees with you, saying that people are idiots for even considering Denver, and even putting up that nice picture, all with no evidence whatsoever at first, but eventually you cite some generic trends (that was valid in years past but that everyone has seen isn't particular applicable this year for some reason or another, and you even admitted this), even though the OP clearly said that he thought this one was the EXCEPTION to the rule. But all in all you contribute nothing to the discussion and don't even attempt to analyze the game at hand, instead relying on your generic trends. But everything is still ok because a bunch of your friends also post in the forum and they have your back. But that wasn't enough. The play then goes on to cover by a whopping 2 TD's and the OP is proven correct on this particular play and the naysayers have pretty much dropped the discussion. But for some reason, you and your holier-than-though attitude feels the need to still defend your side that has already been proven wrong and tell everyone how they are horrible sports bettors because they played against a trend on a game they stated was the exception and were right about. I then offer to try and accumulate some evidence that is contrary to your opinion, that you can profitably find these exceptions (yeah I made the mistake of posting a pick after the fact, which I admitted was lame, but nonetheless, it was immediately used to discount my sports betting ability, but that's fine), but instead of giving me the chance, you respond by saying it can't be done and that your friends agree with you so you must be right. Unbelievable. Why do you even come into this forum? Just to mock people and tell them how you are a great sports bettor and they are horrible? And say things like "I have some great plays for this week, but I won't tell you what they are". Here's an idea, why don't you deflate your ego for a little bit and actually try contributing to the forum instead of mocking those who are less experienced. You may actually like it.

That's it, I'm done with this. Let the flames begin.

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3 double-digit favs this week

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I'm on it!

[sublime]

Whatever, I am a surly [censored]. There's a newsflash!

I don't intent to insult anyone, and I definitely dont come here to toot my own horn. Its pointless anyways, nobody wants to listen!

I would love to post all my plays from the previous NFL week(s) and have people tell me how my NYJ +14 +100 was a bad pick, and how could you have money on Houston? Who cares if it was a full point better than the closing number, its Houston!!!! Oh my god, you suck! etc! You had the Jets this week at +105? Oh my good, even the Saints beat them! Meanwhile the line closed at Jets -2.5 -110, which is 10x more important to me than the final score of the game.

I have wasted far too much time on this, good luck in the future!

toodles!