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#31
08-12-2005, 01:45 PM
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Re: Academics Have a Poor Track Record In The Real World
[ QUOTE ]
It's very much an art form learned through experience... Just like World Class level poker play. [/ QUOTE ] More flim-flam. More pseudo-science. You're confusing playing poker with measuring variance and predicting the peaks and valleys of a bankroll. These are two very different things. There is "feel" in playing NLHE. There is no "feel" to measuring and predicting variance. There is a degree of luck involved in poker over the "short term." This degree of luck cannot be overcome by expert play, nor by "feel", nor by experience. It is constant. Experience can give one an edge over a less experienced opponent, but not over a random event like which of 47 remaining cards will fall next. This means there is a hard limit to the edge a player, even a world class player, can have over the "short term." Witness the poor play that is often rewarded on TV poker. With as much text as you're written in this thread, you still have yet to provide any theoretical proof or real-word evidence (with more than a sample size of 200) for any of your claims about variance in Poker. 
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#32
08-14-2005, 04:05 PM
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Re: Major Problem with Bill Chin\'s Article on Variance
This is not correct. The stdev is a measurment of distrubution about the mean; it is not a measuremeant of distribution about 0 (breaking even). The fact that a winning player will have larger positive swings than negative swings means that the player will have a positive mean, but that doesn't imply anything about the distrubution about the mean.
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#33
08-19-2005, 07:49 AM
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Re: It\'s Not All Variance
[ QUOTE ]
Dude... This an internet forum filled with sociopaths... As are 100% of internet forums. There is constant gamesmanship going on around here... With the veterans abusing the newbies. Misusing statistics to invalidate other people's results... Is part of that gamesmanship. This place gets better every day... Because I now have about 50 nut bars on ignore. Your assumption that a "good player's" downturn... Is automatically due to expected variance... Is ridiculous. It's equally likely that the player in question... Is bored... Has a drinking/drug problem... Is suffering from erectile dysfunction... Has emotional problems or personal crises... Needs to have his medication adjusted... Is watching porn while he 4 tables... Or all of the above. The variance in SNG play is not very high... Maybe a 20 buy-in downswing every few months... On the backdrop of a 15-20% ROI... With no significant capital investment. It's hard to imagine a better business model. I trade about $2,000,000 in stock every day... And have been dealing with risk and variance... In a ** real world way ** for 10 years... So I have a better gut feeling... About what is statistically bogus... Than some egomaniacal grad student. rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Do you guys know that kid on Malcolm in the Middle? The one that has some kind of lung disorder so he can only say a few words at a time before gasping for more air? I kind of got the feeling that kid was talking to me just now. 2nd
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#34
08-19-2005, 12:28 PM
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Re: Response To Ad Hominum Attack By Angry Cola
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I just asked why you chose to write the way you do. I then explained that your points would be taken more seriously if you used regular paragraph breaks. [/ QUOTE ] To take his points seriously, you would have to read his posts. I am not able to, and quickly gave up on his posts. It's like listening to a little kid talking in a sing-song voice: La de dah... La de dah... La de dah de dah. It quickly turns into meaningless syllables. Proper spelling, punctuation, and sentence structure have a purpose. They put ideas into a standard format, so we can concentrate on the ideas without being distracted by the format. People who use non-standard formats for anything other than poetry are pretentious and annoying. But then, poets are pretentious and annoying too.
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#35
08-20-2005, 12:07 PM
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Re: Response To Ad Hominum Attack By Angry Cola
Maybe I'm the only one that gets this, but long long long before this thread existed, I had an AIM away message that I find funny, but I suspect no one else does:
"Prevalent elipsis humor is always good, or..." This thread really cracks me up.
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#36
08-23-2005, 09:59 PM
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Re: Major Problem with Bill Chin\'s Article on Variance
Most of the discussion here on 2+2 (I hope) is geared toward the thinking player, one who wields a consistently profitable strategy against a sea of gamboolers and tiltable fish. The kind of modeling that I employ does of course assume some consistency, excluding stuff like tightening up when losing, and other forms of tilt. It is the consistency (even while imperfect) that augurs well for the Central Limit theorem to apply.
It is my impression that long-term profitable players do show data with fairly consistent win rates and variances. (How about that for a tautology). BillC
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#37
08-27-2005, 12:27 AM
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Re: Finally - A Real World Perspective
[ QUOTE ]
I manage a small hedge fund (about $1 million)... And if I'm averaging a 25% return... But have a big year and do 50%... [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I trade about $2,000,000 in stock every day... And have been dealing with risk and variance... In a ** real world way ** for 10 years... [/ QUOTE ] With those returns and over ten years, why do you only manage $1M... And just so we're clear, is that Canadian or USD$?... Canadian methinks... And is that $1M equity or levered?... Are you really turning over your book every day? Please.
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#38
08-27-2005, 11:12 PM
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Re: Finally - A Real World Perspective
A $1 mil hedge fund? How do you live? Assuming your fund makes 25% a year, that is $250k and you take 20% which gives you an income of $50k (and you still have to pay for insurance, etc).
And when the fund makes 10% a year (or negative in a bad year), then you're making $20k a year? Ouch.
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#40
08-28-2005, 04:54 PM
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Re: Finally - A Real World Perspective
[ QUOTE ]
Are you really turning over your book every day? Please. [/ QUOTE ] He says he has a $1 mil fund and he is trading $2 mil a day [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] That's not day trading, that's more like hour trading. Or fantasy trading.
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