Have I gone completely mad? KJs hand

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Both of our math is correct, except I used 45 instead of 46.

I round 2.83 up to 3 to make the math easier. expressed as a fraction is 1/3. If I will make something one time in three that means once I hit my hand, and the remaining 2 times I miss. Expressed as a RATIO, its a 2-1 shot.

The flush draw IS 1/4 or a 3-1 shot. (one time out of 4 you make it, 3 times u miss).

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott, your math is wrong.

12 outs. 46 cards remaining. You will win 12/46, or approx 1/4. This is 3 to 1, not 2 to 1.

9 outs. 46 cards remaining. You will win 9/46, or approx 1/5. This is 4 to 1, not 3 to 1.

Figuring as ratios:

12 outs. 34 bad cards. Odds are 34:12 or about 3:1 against (win one time for every 3 losses)
9 outs. 37 bad cards. Odds are 37:9 or about 4:1 against (win one time for every 4 losses)

[DeeJ]

Eh? At the turn there are already 14BB in the pot. Hero is putting in 1 bet, and will get callers or raises.

If Hero has to put only 1 bet in he has had an easy bet at the pot at 18 to 20:1 with a single bet, and wins say 20% of the time (flush) plus a little more for the overcards. Sounds like a good deal to me. Even if he has to put 2 bets in to a pot which is then 22-26BB, that's still something like 12:1 for a ~20% shot. Still very very goot. Even 3 or 4 bets must work out +EV too (apart from the increased risk you are up against Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't understand people check-calling the turn. It's a fantastic card which gives you 9 outs to the probable 2nd nuts.

Your overcards might also be good

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 6 players and one nearly all in. So you have no bluffing equity you probably aren't going to get overlay on your bet and if you do it's very small. There's a small-medium sized risk of with all the coldcallers one of 'em is going to pop you on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you care if you are popped on the turn? Even if it's heads up?

[Hand Quiz 12, p294 SSHE is a close enough example with a 4 flush and overcards, NPA there is faced with calling 2 cold and a smaller pot than our Hero here]

[Saborion]

Ehum.
There's a difference between calling other players bets and betting yourself. You can't include the pot size when betting for value (or can you?).

If you know you'll win here exactly 26 % of the time, then for a bet to be profitable you'll have to get at least 3 callers. It doesn't matter if the pot contains $0 or $5M.

[ActionBob]

Scott,

Your method to determine odds is incorrect. I believe others have elaborated already. If you haven't done so already, you will probably want to read it. I'm sure it will drastically improve your game. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Good luck.

-ActionBob

[DeeJ]

So you wouldn't put in $120 for a 25% chance to win $5m?

I think I need to lie down.....seriously, I see your point. But I think you're wrong. The analogy would be that you have the choice of putting in $0 to win $3m or $120 to win $5m. I know which I would choose.

What you are saying is basically you'd want to see the river as cheaply as possible to maximise the value of your turn action. This is fine.

But because the pot is big, so long as you stay in it, you are almost assured +EV even if it's capped. So I would want to ram and jam the pot despite only being on a draw. Add to that the possible long shots you might push out.

Let's put it another way. Would you want to have a pot of 28BB (from say 8BB +20BB overall) or 20BB (from say 5BB +15BB overall). Your return in the 28BB pot might only be 28:8, 3.5:1, rather than 4:1, but you win more.

I'd take the extra chips. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Emoney]

raise the flop. check call the turn, bet the river.

[Tosh]

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Both of our math is correct, except I used 45 instead of 46.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your math again more thoroughly, and see if you still think that.