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#31
12-07-2005, 05:28 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
ent, I think that we can add in a lot of suited hands to this guy that look pretty to him because they are soooted.
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#32
12-07-2005, 05:38 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
[ QUOTE ]
ent, I think that we can add in a lot of suited hands to this guy that look pretty to him because they are soooted. [/ QUOTE ] Try doing some EV calcs 1st. Pretend that he could have any flush and only caps the nuts. We are dumb and call should he cap. We are a 3:1 favorite to win the pot. EV just call = 0 EV 3bet = 6bb-3bb/4 - .5bb = .25bb So best case we win .25bb by 3betting here. Obviously we win more if we can 3bet/fold but that is a whole new ballgame. The point is that he isn't going to be limping suited junk UTG anywhere near as much as he will be limping Axs. If he were a 70/5 then sure I would certainly agree.
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#33
12-07-2005, 06:44 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
Totally overlooked that. I would like to say I thought that it was the BB who check-raised thus increasing the likelihood of random hearts, but then I would just be lying. I agree with you that this is probably just a call.
SGS
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#34
12-07-2005, 06:48 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
I agree, I totally didn't think about the increased possibilitys of Axs. I just saw that the guy was loose passive PF, saw that we had the 2nd nuts, and figured he could have random trash hearts. I agree with you that calling is probably better.
SGS
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#36
12-07-2005, 07:33 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What's the question? [/ QUOTE ] He almost surely has a flush; this is hand reading 101 imo. He's not quite loose enough to be limping tons of suited connectors here. Granted, the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s on the board are such that connectors like 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are possible here I think that Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hands are more likely given his VPIP. [/ QUOTE ] But he is passive enough to limp KQo.
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#37
12-07-2005, 07:37 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he has the nuts, so be it. And I'm sure he did...or this post might have been on the cutting room floor (and no, none of this is an an insult to Jason - it is the nature of message boards, poker and this forum). [/ QUOTE ] It's also possible that I just called and got shown 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and cried over not 3-betting. [/ QUOTE ] we both know 35VPIP ain't limping that.
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#38
12-07-2005, 07:38 AM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If he has the nuts, so be it. And I'm sure he did...or this post might have been on the cutting room floor (and no, none of this is an an insult to Jason - it is the nature of message boards, poker and this forum). [/ QUOTE ] It's also possible that I just called and got shown 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and cried over not 3-betting. [/ QUOTE ] we both know 35VPIP ain't limping that. [/ QUOTE ] That's not the point.
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#39
12-07-2005, 02:42 PM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
[ QUOTE ]
ent, I think that we can add in a lot of suited hands to this guy that look pretty to him because they are soooted. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know where you're getting this idea from. 35% vpip isn't that loose. My ranges were based on what stove considers the top 40% of hands, which is already more than we know he limps. Rob
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#40
12-07-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: 10/20 KQs river
[ QUOTE ]
We are dumb and call should he cap [/ QUOTE ] you seem to be a fan of folding to the n+1st bet. Is it profitable for him to now cap with any flush he might have, knowing we'll only call with the nuts?
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