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#31
03-04-2005, 07:44 PM
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Re: Check my line here from BB
It's actually quite simple. The flush draw situation is actually the easiest to understand and it comes up a lot.
Suppose you are looking at a flush draw on the flop. Then, using simple math and probability, we know that you are a 1.9:1 underdog to make your flush by the river. The general rule is, you are making money if 3 or more bets go into the pot for every one bet you put in, i.e. in a 3:1 ratio. Since 3:1 is a bigger ratio than 1.9:1, then value bets and raises make you money (Note that if only 2 bets go into the pot for every one bet you put in, thats a 2:1 ratio. But 2:1 is so close to 1.9:1 we consider this a break even play). Put another way, your pot odds (3:1) are greater than your pot equity (1.9:1), so this is a money making play. Now, here is why you should be happy to see the flop capped if you are getting 3:1 on your pot investment. Lets say, on the flop, you put in 4 small bets and 3 opponents put in 4 small bets each. Further, assume that you will not have to call any bets on the turn. Then, two times out of three you will not hit your flush and lose your flop investment of 4 small bets, for a total loss of 8 small bets. But, one time out of three you will hit your flush by the river and win 3x4=12 small bets . Therefore, your average profit by having the flop capped is 12-8=4 small bets. Note that even if you do have to call bets on the turn, it can be shown that having the flop capped is still correct. Maybe someone else can do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] -C. 
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#32
03-04-2005, 08:32 PM
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Re: Check my line here from BB
I like it. Good hand.
If the T doesn't come on the turn, of course you're checking it. Checking it even though it didn't come wouldn't be criminal, but I like a bet as you did.
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#34
03-04-2005, 09:34 PM
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Re: Check my line here from BB
Your mother . . .
[ QUOTE ] As far as posting is concerned. Actually, this thread makes me want to post more. This is one of those examples where getting flamed is actually extremely helpful and will hopefully help someone else in my position. [/ QUOTE ] This is an excellent attitude. You really will learn a lot faster by engaging in the discussion, even when you end up spewing nonsense -- sometimes moreso when you spew nonsense so that others can explain in excrutiating detail to you, from 3 different perspectives, why you so royally screwed the pooch on a particular bit of advice. It does also help others who lurk but don't post -- but not nearly as much as it helps you. Post more - especially responses to others hands / queries and less so your own hands / queries. Your avatar still freaks me out though.
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#35
03-04-2005, 09:47 PM
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Re: Check my line here from BB
[ QUOTE ]
Fold pre-flop. Q3s is not worth a complete from sb with 3 other players. [/ QUOTE ] Yes it is. You're getting 7:1, and your implied odds are effectively doubled since you only have to put in 1/2 SB.
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#38
03-04-2005, 11:21 PM
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I dig it
Well played. I am not a huge fan of the complete in the SB, but it probably is a slightly profitable call, provided BB is not unusually aggressive. Those times when you end up putting in 1.5 SBs before the flop are highly non-profitable, so you should be pretty sure that BB will only raise with big hands. (Which is also good, because you will likely take him for a ride those few times you do flop big.)
Flop 3-bet is absolutely right, and it's a pretty big mistake not to 3-bet it. It costs ~ 1/3 of a SB. On the turn, I would consider checking, mainly because I am hoping BB bets and I get two callers, so I can check-raise for value. Also, if it gets checked through, that's not horrible for you, as your pot equity is around 30% (9 cards make what is almost certainly the best hand; 6 cards make a top hand that might chop). You're not really giving a free card here. (Contrast that with holding KhQh on a board of Jh Th 4c 2d; then you should ram and jam the turn as much as possible and you don't want to give a "free card" even though you're technically behind at this point in all likelihood. In this situation, your pot equity is way too big.) Also if BB bets the turn and I don't get the other two to call, I am smooth calling and deciding whether to go for a check-raise if I make my draw on the river. (That's probably a really bad idea against good competition, but I think it's something to be strongly considered at the microlimits. There's simply too many players who keep betting their hands, irrespective of what's on the board or how you've played so far.) River fold is good.
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#39
03-05-2005, 02:16 AM
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Re: I dig it
i agree with all of it except that i would be giving a free card if it is checked through. i'd rather have my bet raised and watch them cold call, as i later found out they were a fish/calling station, then end up giving a free card for the possible back door.
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