Hand from WSOP 2000 NLHE

[MLG]

This is a very interesting hand, more so than people are giving it credit for. When a very tight player reraises and we have a very good hand the temptation is to interpret this raise as the player using his image to make a move, when much more often it means the tight player picked up a hand. I think it is very unlikely that a tight player is making a move here on an UTG raise no matter how much of a LAG he thinks you are. My range for him here would be AA/KK/QQ, 2/3AK and 1/2JJ. With that range folding is out of the question, and the decision is between raising and calling. In order to evaluate those options we need to consider what will happen the times that an A flops (figuring you will either raise all-in, or bet the times an A doesnt flop). Also we need to examine which hands he will call an all-in with preflop. I don't think he calls the push with AK, or with JJ, and if he is that tight he may even fold QQ sometimes despite the great price he is getting. I think that I would call preflop rather than let those hands off the hook.

The times when an A flops we will have a tough decision to make as the pot is 20k with only 29k left in your stack. There will only be 7 hands that BB can have that are beating you in this situation (6 AK discounted to 4 because of the original decreased liklihood of him having it, and 3 AA) and there are 9 hands that you beat (6 QQ and 6 JJ discounted to 3). So, even if we say he only follows through with hands you beat 2/3 of the time, that would mean there are 6 hands you beat, and 7 you lose to and with the price the pot is laying you you must call any sized bet, even an all-in. However, there will be times when he bets only 10k, and then bets your last 19k on the turn. I would be willing to fold the turn then as I don't believe this player would bet two consecutive streets without the A.

Interesting hand.

[grengrad]

Very difficult choice.
Considering your discussion with this other player you can assume he has JJ QQ AA or in a scary world KK, unless you think he is angle shooting, but not many people angle shoot when they chit chat. Maybe, he would do this with AK.

Now consider:
He knows you are tight.
He will not even tangle with a small stack.
He is tangling with you, a big stack.
You are healthy in chips.
You could double up.

Now the question is, why did he bet so hard. He is saying, I have a big hand, this pot is mine. From what you say about this player, I do not think he is bluffin.

If I fold I lose 5% of my stack. If I push and he has aces I lose 100%. If he has QQ or JJ or AK, I think he folds to a reraise, so I do not double up from pushing.
So, (.25)10000+(.25)10000+(.25)10000+(.25)-39000= -2250
This is about the same you lose from folding(2200), but with much less deviance. I think I am willing to give him credit this one time.

I dont think any arguement about him raising to 10k discounts AA. People argue that so often that if you think your opponent is strong and you have aces, you should overbet.

[MLG]

I think my analysis is basically saying, once you put 1/4 of your chips in preflop, you can depend on your edge post flop and get the rest in in all but the most extreme of situations.