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#31
07-11-2005, 02:53 AM
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Re: QQ utg check raised by 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why are you discounting your outs in case someone has a set? [/ QUOTE ] Because I'm trying to improve my hand. If someone else flopped a set of 3's then they have 2 of my outs to improve. I know I have top set, but I also know I am behind a flush (95%) and need a boat to win. [/ QUOTE ] Dave G. did an excellent job of showing why this type of thinking is wrong, but I'd like to add a point of clarification because I was confused by all of this for a moment. If the OP believes that one of his opponents is holding a set, he should, in fact, slightly discount his outs. Not for the cards in his opponent's hand, but because one of his out cards gives the opponent 4 of a kind, beating his boat. We (correctly) use this type of logic to discount outs all the time when the hand we are drawing to may not be best. For instance, we don't give an open-ended straight draw 8 full outs when two of those cards will put 3 (or 4) to a flush on the board. 
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#32
07-11-2005, 03:00 AM
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Re: QQ utg check raised by 2
definitely call here and also the river for 1 bet even if you don't improve.
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#33
07-11-2005, 03:03 AM
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Re: QQ utg check raised by 2
Yes, this is a good point. These distinctions between discounting outs are mostly academic in this case because 1 less out isn't going to make a difference as the pot is going to be huge.
You bring up an important distinction though and it shows the correct way to think about your outs. Good post.
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#34
07-27-2005, 04:59 PM
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Re: QQ utg check raised by 2
Grunching...
With no solid reads, this becomes a math problem. You have 10 outs to beat a flush. So you need to be getting better than 4.6:1 to call. There are 13.5 BB in the pot, so you're getting 6.5:1 to call. Plus there are implied odds... if you make your full house on the river, it's not likely that both of these guys are going to fold. So I'd have to call here.
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#35
07-27-2005, 05:46 PM
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Re: QQ utg check raised by 2
If I am wrong I'd appreciate a clarification of the theory here.
Capping is -EV and wrong because you expect to win this pot 10 times and lose 36. You invest 1BB they invest 2BB. Long term you will win 20BB and lose 36BB. Total EV is -16/46 or -0.35BB. Only with 4 callers does this become slightly +EV - win 40BB and lose 36BB = +4/46 or +0.9BB.
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