25/50 Deep Stack Tricky Hand

[theBruiser500]

ml4l i'm not check/calling to see what happens on the river, i'm check/calling with the intention of check/calling the river too. if i c/r the turn he will not call with a worst hand, i don't know what he'd do with KK or AA. what specific hands could he have that i should be raising the tunr here?

[ML4L]

Hey Bruiser,

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ml4l i'm not check/calling to see what happens on the river, i'm check/calling with the intention of check/calling the river too. if i c/r the turn he will not call with a worst hand, i don't know what he'd do with KK or AA. what specific hands could he have that i should be raising the tunr here?

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Great response. Let me try to clarify...

Again, we are in agreement that not many worse hands, if any, are calling that turn check-raise. But, we might have to put that fact aside. We have to say, OK, what is my EV of each option here?

Folding is 0 EV.

Raising is going to be you risking around 12k to win 9k. Your EV is going to be x% * 9k + (1-x)% * p[winning the hand when he calls] * 30k. Make some assumptions and get a number. I and other posters presume that this number is greater than zero.

Here is the thing about calling. You are losing 4.5k (the money that you put in on the turn) immediately. Then, you must figure in the river action. Before the river card, he has a better hand some z% of the time and a worse hand some (1-z)% of the time. You have to figure that, each and every time in that z% that he has a better hand on the turn, he will bet it again on the river and you will pay off. There might be a couple of exceptions to that, but the vast majority of the time, better hands are value-betting the river. Also consider that the times that you catch up on the river to his turned small flush, he might check behind, meaning that you gain nothing on the river action. Then, we'll look at those times that he has a worse hand on the turn. Some percentage of those times, he'll catch up and probably bet (unless maybe he spikes an ace or something with AcJx), and again you will pay off. Some percentage of those times, he'll catch up and check behind, and you cost yourself the pot if it was a hand that would have folded on the turn. Some percentage of those times, he'll not catch up and give up and check behind, so you gain nothing vs. check-raising the turn. Some percentage of those times, he'll not catch up, and he'll bet anyway. That last case is the crux of the situation. If this guy is going to fire a third barrel some huge percentage of the time here and you are ballsy enough to call that bet regardless of the river card, then a call is better than a turn raise. But, unless his bluff frequency is so skewed that you are making money on that river action, you are better off raising the turn. Given the stack sizes, etc., my presumption is that you should raise the turn rather than call down. If the pot were a smaller percentage of your stack on the turn, I suspect that might change.

That's kinda incoherent, but hopefully everyone can follow. Much like that hand with Prevaricator a while back where I talked about a reraise on the flop, in this hand, you find yourself in a situation where the fact that your hand is an overpair is inconsequential to a degree. It just so happens that the strength of your hand is such that if you take aggressive action, you won't be called by a worse hand. But, that doesn't mean that it isn't the right play.

Make sense?

Mike

[theBruiser500]

"Also consider that the times that you catch up on the river to his turned small flush, he might check behind, meaning that you gain nothing on the river action. Then, we'll look at those times that he has a worse hand on the turn. Some percentage of those times, he'll catch up and probably bet (unless maybe he spikes an ace or something with AcJx), and again you will pay off. Some percentage of those times, he'll catch up and check behind, and you cost yourself the pot if it was a hand that would have folded on the turn. Some percentage of those times, he'll not catch up and give up and check behind, so you gain nothing vs. check-raising the turn. Some percentage of those times, he'll not catch up, and he'll bet anyway. That last case is the crux of the situation."

the first point IMO is a big one that i also just thought of yesterday. if he has a loser flush i think i have 13 outs which is not insignificant at all, 13/46 or whatever fro

next point, outdrawing me, this is what i was getting at, what actual worse hands could he have that i'm afraid of him outdrawing me with. given the action, what specific hands are you talking about here?

his bluff percentage on the river, i don't think this is inisignticant. he's comitted a lot of money to the pot and if he can' win in a showdown in a way, it takes a lot of courage for a LAG to CHECk there if you see what i'm saying. i think this situation is a lot closer than everyone is saaying, i odn't see how this is a fold or raise situationa t all.

[ML4L]

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next point, outdrawing me, this is what i was getting at, what actual worse hands could he have that i'm afraid of him outdrawing me with. given the action, what specific hands are you talking about here?

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Well, I think that a chunk of his hands hold the Ac or Kc, which gives him at least 11 outs. That would be my chief concern. You're correct; a lot of other hands are drawing thin (AJ has 5 outs; pocket pair has 2; some hands are drawing dead). Now that I think about it, you are correct in pointing out that, on average, he doesn't have many outs, which makes a call better.

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his bluff percentage on the river, i don't think this is inisignticant. he's comitted a lot of money to the pot and if he can' win in a showdown in a way, it takes a lot of courage for a LAG to CHECk there if you see what i'm saying. i think this situation is a lot closer than everyone is saaying, i odn't see how this is a fold or raise situationa t all.

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Again, if you think that the guy will fire another barrel with nothing a lot of the time he bluffs the turn, call the turn, hold your breath, and call the river.

I don't mean to be a prick by pointing this out, but do keep in mind the fact that, for this plan to work, you have to actually call the river. You couldn't swallow calling $4k on the turn; I don't know if you pull the trigger for $8k on the river, particularly if another club or a jack hits. For calling the turn to be good, you have to follow through EVERY time (or, have predetermined cards that you will fold to, but in this spot, I think that's begging for disaster).

I'm not trying to hate, because it's a heck of a lot easier said than done to make these sorts of big calls, but not being honest about the percentage of the time that you will follow through can cause you to make the wrong decision on the turn.

Generally, I think you make a very reasonable case for calling rather than raising. It all comes down to those assumptions that I was talking about. I'd still probably go ahead and put it on the turn, but making some of the assumptions that you do, a call might be better.

Good thread.

Mike

[cwl]

as someone else mentioned already i think the main hands that you dont really want to give a free river to are ones containing the A/K flush draw. these may not make up enough of his hand range to dictate your correct play but there are such hands.

if you are planning on calling a large river bet another benefit of check/raising the turn is you at least get his money when you suck out and he would fold a bad river. for example, if he has a low flush and you call the turn and a blank hits he will bet the river, you call and lose all your money. if a 4 flush shows up and you check he may well check behind and if you bet he may well fold.

whether you are winning now and he is drawing at something like a bigger flush or you are losing now and drawing live when you just call the turn and plan to call the river you have created a situation where the money will often be going in in specificaly the cases where you dont want it to.

despite all that i dont think calling is totally unreasonable. it has some downsides, obviously, but i think im much more inclined to call in spots similar to this than most of the posters. as you have mentioned a pretty large chunk of his potential hands are drawing relatively thin. as a general rule i hate betting/raising in spots like that where the bet will almost never be called by a worse hands. it often seems like a way of avoiding a tricky but potentially more profitable situation later in the hand.

its been a while since i played with your opponent in this hand and i dont remember the details of how he played very well so i dont have much to add on your specific situation. generally, if i call in a spot like this, i dont have a set in stone plan for the river. calling the turn gives you a chance to make a good decision on the river and to do that you need to see the river card and see what your opponent does. certainly if he bluffs way too much you can be pretty sure your gonna call but i think this is the exception. part of the benefit of calling the turn is that he will bluff the river and part of the benefit of calling the turn is that he wont be bluffing and you will fold the river. for a particular opponent one of these can dominate but they both play into the merits of a turn call.

ultimately, i dont really know if calling is a good play but i can say that, depending on exactly how your opponent is playing, it may well be something i would do.

[ML4L]

Hey cwl,

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as someone else mentioned already i think the main hands that you dont really want to give a free river to are ones containing the A/K flush draw. these may not make up enough of his hand range to dictate your correct play but there are such hands.

if you are planning on calling a large river bet another benefit of check/raising the turn is you at least get his money when you suck out and he would fold a bad river. for example, if he has a low flush and you call the turn and a blank hits he will bet the river, you call and lose all your money. if a 4 flush shows up and you check he may well check behind and if you bet he may well fold.

whether you are winning now and he is drawing at something like a bigger flush or you are losing now and drawing live when you just call the turn and plan to call the river you have created a situation where the money will often be going in in specificaly the cases where you dont want it to.

despite all that i dont think calling is totally unreasonable. it has some downsides, obviously, but i think im much more inclined to call in spots similar to this than most of the posters. as you have mentioned a pretty large chunk of his potential hands are drawing relatively thin. as a general rule i hate betting/raising in spots like that where the bet will almost never be called by a worse hands. it often seems like a way of avoiding a tricky but potentially more profitable situation later in the hand.

its been a while since i played with your opponent in this hand and i dont remember the details of how he played very well so i dont have much to add on your specific situation. generally, if i call in a spot like this, i dont have a set in stone plan for the river. calling the turn gives you a chance to make a good decision on the river and to do that you need to see the river card and see what your opponent does. certainly if he bluffs way too much you can be pretty sure your gonna call but i think this is the exception. part of the benefit of calling the turn is that he will bluff the river and part of the benefit of calling the turn is that he wont be bluffing and you will fold the river. for a particular opponent one of these can dominate but they both play into the merits of a turn call.

ultimately, i dont really know if calling is a good play but i can say that, depending on exactly how your opponent is playing, it may well be something i would do.

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Great post. I think that it articulates my thoughts better than I could. Particularly the part about calling the turn in tricky spots in general. Shoving it all in the middle on the turn when you won't be called by worse hands or fold better hands solely to avoid a tricky, but profitable, river spot is bad poker. I'm just not sold that this is a profitable river spot, for the reasons outlined in cwl's post and mine.

The one thing that I don't 100% agree with is not having a plan for the river when making the turn call. The only way that I would fold the river after putting in 1/3 of my stack on the turn in this sort of situation is if I somehow became almost positive (and, I mean, POSITIVE) that he's got me beat based on his river action. Can happen in a live game, but online, I don't see how I could call and then be given information on the river that would make me change my mind... I mean, the whole point of calling the turn is because you expect/want him to pot most rivers. Maybe if he bets some milking amount on a K river (he would probably check if he hit his K, so it would be likely he has bet with trips or a flush to extract money from AcKx), but even that is a tough laydown to this type of opponent.

Again, calling in spots like these are only profitable if you play well on the river. If you forsee yourself making bad calls or paying off too much, the EV of pushing the turn is probably higher than trying to play a river.

ML4L