Interesting No Limit Question

[illguitar]

The worst move??? Absolutely not. What do you suggest? You don't charge the flush draw. You put him on a decision. It is my opinion that given this choice the flush draw folds. IF he calls, you are a large favorite with the nuts. So what if you split? What if you win? You can't beaten unless the flush card comes...and even then you may win if you read his hand wrong. Aggressiveness. I'll sit down and play with you anyday. You act like the person in question is free-rolling which is HIGHLY unlikely. Defend your statement so I can give it some more thought. Tell me what you would do.

[Snoogins47]

I vote call.

The flush draw-er would be very ballsy to make any sort of move here, though he would definitely, of course, if he's got the freeroll.

You ain't gonna win squat from diamond-boy if the flush misses, if that's indeed what he's on. A raise opens the door to a whole host of bad news. You've still got $10k in front of you. You've got position on the other guy whom you assume has a straight.

I don't necessarily think that folding is bad. You're essentially getting no return on your turn call, $900 in the pot already. Fine. Carve up the flush-draw boy's overcall on the turn, and be done with it. You're essentially getting 2.5 to 1 here, and if your reads are right, a board pair might allow you to win the pot outright, probably moreso than if you raised here on the turn. Would you normally be put on holding the J when you flat call on the turn with somebody left behind you to act? I'm guessing no, but I can't give any sort of picture of their level of play, as I'm a fairly low stakes player myself.

So call, is my vote... cmon David, I wanna hear you tell me why I'm wrong!

[kmvenne]

The assumption that you are gonna get a huge raise from the flush/straight combo the 2/9ths the time you see that hand and have to fold seems erronious to me. What if you see a proper game theory bet, making it improper for you to fold? A raise of 2300 followed by a call from straight #1 and the pot lays you 5:1 making a fold incorrect against the freerolling third straight, meaning you are donating about about 111 extra chips in all situations, making your call equity 19 chips and a risk:equity likely approaching that of the all in. Hense, my belief folding is correct.

[Lawrence Ng]

I don't play my touraments like that even if it's the early stage.

I shove a big amount in. E. I make the guy on the flush draw pay bigtime and if he's freerolling - so be it for me and pray tell that the river doesn't put a dimaond.

[J_V]

Ty, Daryn. They really do.

[Shaky]

Put yourself in the position of having the Jd Xd and being first to act after the turn - what is the proper sized bet? It has to be more than 200 chips, doesn't it? I'm having a very difficult time believing that the opponent on my right has a free roll. I don't even think it's very likely that he has the Jd.

I do agree with Squirrel, though, when he says that the Jd is the key card here. If you raise less than all-in, anyone with the jd is going to put you all in and you can't call.

Shaky

[curtains]

Im going to repeat my idea since no one has mentioned it in the last 10-15 pages or so.
First, folding is simply terrible. Most people who suggest folding are misapplying concepts, incorrectly calculating the pot odds, and somehow feel that by calling on the turn they are forced into calling giant bets on the river if a diamond comes. Those who suggest folding are being VERY lazy in their calculations. I'm waiting for the post that says to fold on the river even if a non diamond, non board pairing card comes, it should be coming soon.

My first answer is to call on the turn. The reason I'm calling is that Im hoping to pick up some outs when the board pairs on the river. If the board pairs, I'd make a largish bet, and wouldn't be surprised to make the straight fold. Now not only are you calling to split with the player who has a made straight, but you also have the chance to win the pot outright if the correct card comes on the river. If you make a smaller raise on the turn, you pretty much lose this option, as the other player with a straight won't really believe that you filled up on the river.

PS - "Pushing allin might also be best if you will always win the pot against just a made straight, but then it basically becomes some kind of math problem. I feel that mathematically pushing allin would show a long term profit if the player who has a straight will fold everytime they don't have the jack of diamonds. If your opponent won't always fold a straight not containing the J of diamonds, then this play is far less appealing.
If the player will always fold non Jack of diamond straights, I really can't see why this answer would be incorrect. I don't want to hear how I will lose the tournament the 1-3% (I didnt do math but this sounds right) of the time my opponent has the flush draw and actually hits it. 1-3% just doesn't sound like nearly enough to make this play -EV. The problem however is that calling is also +EV so we need to take this into account when calcuating the overall +EV of moving allin.

Anyway I think both answers are reasonable.

[RYL]

I would bet the pot.

[Stealthy]

I am gunna raise a moderate amount to about $700. The flush draw has his correct pot odds taken away and there is a chance that if the flush shot does fold but the flush would have been made, then I can make a hefty bet on the river to represent the flush and try and get the other straight out. He may even lay down on the turn to my reraise but that is unlikely.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
From "Tournament Poker for Advanced Players"

"It may seem that giving up a positive EV gamble can never be right. However, even from a purel mathematical standpoint, you sometimes should."

I think this is such a situation, where using a very basic understanding of risk v. reward analysis shows that calling or folding (I lean towards folding), whilst forgoing an immediate positive EV, leads to a greater long term EV. The title of the chapter from which the quote comes perhaps sums it up best, "You're Broke - You're Done".

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what exactly your pointing your quote towards...but if you're saying that you should fold instead of call, I disagree that it is applicable here.

The above quote is dealing with more of an all in bet, in which case if you lose, you're out of the tourney. Calling a bet of 200 when you have 10000 chips is hardly "you're broke, you're done."