WSOP Day 4: "Official" News, Results, and Discussion

[ziggy_m]

Raymer Cannot Be Stopped
Log:

Gen Wattanabe goes all-in for his last . Greg mentions that he knows he's behind, but decides to call. Wattanabe shows J-J with one spade. Raymer turns over 8-6 - no spades. The flop comes 7s-3s-2s. Raymer has no pair, and no solid draw, while Wattanabe still has an overpair and a flush draw. The turn is a non-spade 5, giving Raymer an open ended straight draw, but he's still behind. The river brings a non-spade 9. Raymer hits his runner-runner straight, busts Wattanabe, and is now sitting atop a stack of $1,600,000.

[newfant]

Ivey with almost 1 million in chips. This thing is over if Ivey gets the chip lead.

[LetYouDown]

That's so 1.4 of Raymer.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Ivey with almost 1 million in chips. This thing is over if Ivey gets the chip lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

No its not. With this many players left, many of whom are very talented, and the luck involved in tournament poker, everybody is still a long shot.

[bholdr]

If ivey, raymer, and matasow somehow all make it to the final table, this'll be one for the ages. I can't believe how exciting it is to track this tournament- i was never really a fan of big NL tourneys until this. I am glued to cardplayer.com.

go fossilman.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
This is what Pauly at Tao of Poker wrote:

4:17pm... Fossilman jawed with a railbird who was pestering his wife about their kids, "If you [censored] with my daughter, you're dead." That guy was being a total idiot and I was about to call security to clear him out when the guy bolted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sooo ... did Raymer get a 10 min penalty?

[Kevroc]

Daniel Shak is a trader on the NYMEX floor in NY, I work on that floor. When I see him, I will ask him exactly how the hand went down.

There has been alot of discussion about this hand, I will start a thread when I get the details.

(I hope it wasn't a 20k/25k/50k like the quote stated)

[Platypus]

[ QUOTE ]
Raymer Cannot Be Stopped
Log:

Gen Wattanabe goes all-in for his last . Greg mentions that he knows he's behind, but decides to call. Wattanabe shows J-J with one spade. Raymer turns over 8-6 - no spades. The flop comes 7s-3s-2s. Raymer has no pair, and no solid draw, while Wattanabe still has an overpair and a flush draw. The turn is a non-spade 5, giving Raymer an open ended straight draw, but he's still behind. The river brings a non-spade 9. Raymer hits his runner-runner straight, busts Wattanabe, and is now sitting atop a stack of $1,600,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg Raymer is a creature from outer-space.

[cwsiggy]

rigged!!

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right that it becomes close. I tend to think of 10-1 as the odds you want for set value, but 8-1 is certainly in the ballpark. I've completely lost track of the bets and stack sizes at this point, but I think the thing about the 600k is that a big chunk of that is Greg's own money that's still in his stack.

If you told me 60k or 70k or whatever was the perfect bet I wouldn't disagree with you, although if it gets much higher than that you don't have enough for the flop. As usual, the way this all got started was some people who decided the 50k raise was just an obviously wrong play, and the guy clearly should have pushed, which just doesn't make sense to me.

You can always count on this at 2+2: when someone busts, the results players will always say "you shoulda raised more preflop!" Apparently there are some people who accumulate enough chips to win tournaments without ever letting their opponent see a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I caught the bit about it being his own money and fixed that post.

I think the key is that its KK OOP vs. an aggressive big stack which means even if he doesn't have an ace, he might as well. Couple that with the implied odds for the non-ace hands he might have and KK needs to make this something like 100K, not 50K. As far as KK is concerned, if Greg has 88, he basically has 6 cards to hit on the flop, since the Ace becomes his as soon as KK checks to him on an ace high flop.

I think the optimal raise with AA is significantly smaller than the optimal raise with KK.

As for leaving enough for the flop, it's real hard with his stack to give him a chance to make two big mistakes, and it is much easier to make him make a mistake before the flop than after, because of position. So I'd prefer overraising preflop and giving himn decent calling odds on a flush draw only, lets say, to putting myself in a position to make a big flop bet after giving my opponent a chance to hit the flop and then decide.