Overcards, bet the flop ?

[sublime]

I saw below someone post that a backdoor flush makes a difference in their decision. I couldn't disagree more. If anyone finds themselves looking at a backdoor flush (non-nut to boot) in this situation as justification to make a stab at this pot, I think you're going to have to make up the chips elsewhere in your 5/10 game

Its not the deciding factor, but without it I would check/fold here no questions asked. The "justifacation" of betting at this flop is that you may take it down, its a small pot and the bet is coming out of the blinds on a rag infested board.

[Haupt_234]

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I think semantics got crossed up somehow. I'm not betting this flop without reads on the three opponents being likely folders (typical 5/10 makes this a general no in my book) - backdoor flush or no.


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Amen.

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Its not the deciding factor, but without it I would check/fold here no questions asked.

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So the one additional out makes it a hand worth betting into an unknown field? I don't think the play is horrible and I am sure it will work sometimes, but it isn't a hand I am pumping my bankroll into by any means.

Haupt_234

[sublime]

So the one additional out makes it a hand worth betting into an unknown field? I don't think the play is horrible and I am sure it will work sometimes, but it isn't a hand I am pumping my bankroll into by any means.

In the long run is more than likely neutral EV. But to call it stupidly aggressive as you did in a previous post is.... well, a stupid statment. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[MarkD]

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Its not the deciding factor, but without it I would check/fold here no questions asked. The "justifacation" of betting at this flop is that you may take it down, its a small pot and the bet is coming out of the blinds on a rag infested board.

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This is how I see it too. This is a bet that is profitable at times simply because Trix is the BB and this flop is more likely to hit him than other players. The SB has already checked which lends some credence to it. The backdoor flush does help a little.

Overall, in this specific case, I don't think I would bet though. I would prefer the bet if I had 2 opponents rather than 3. I would prefer it more if I had 1 opponent. I would prefer this play if my overcards were better than Ten high (to make redraws less likely if I do make a pair on the turn). The back door flush draw helps, but I don't think it helps enough considering that this is a very opponent dependent play that will rarely work. I think the fact that you have 3 opponents and don't know your opponents (well, nothing was stated so I assume unknown) makes this a fold.

Very hard to determine the EV of a play like this. I have no idea if it's +EV or -EV. It completely depends on the characteristics of your opponents as your primary value comes from them folding.

In the simplest mathematical case where you disregard your chances of improving to a winning hand you need to win on the flop 20% of the time to break even. Hmm... that doesn't sound that obscene here. This bet is certainly close. The EV calc would be much harder than this though because of the turn / river action when you bet and pick up a flush draw on the turn and then miss it or make it on the river.

I still don't make this bet here. If I had A9s I would certainly be more inclined though.

[sublime]

great post Mark [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

A neutral post for a neutral hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[sthief09]

I'm stupidly aggressive sometimes (most of the time), so I can tell a stupidly aggressive bet when I see one. This unfortunately isn't as stupid as I like my stupidly aggressive bets to be. I still wouldn't make this bet. I tend to shy away from bets like this in small pots. this is a good hand to do it with though since you're unlikely to be outkicked if you bet the flop.

[Sarge85]

Why bother the pot is to small to be walking out on thin ice like this.


Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]