Common Situation

[cepstrum]

People don't seem to be considering the backdoor outs, which are adding over 5% to your likelihood to win the hand - note that you have _2_ backdoor straight draws to go with your backdoor flush draw. Under the assumption that all your pair outs are good, that means you go from 24% to win the hand to about 29.5%. That's a pretty big deal and puts you on the cusp of a profitable call given your effective odds.

Your overcard outs might not all be good, and sure, if you hit your 2-3 you may be beaten by 65, 67, etc. But you also might still have the best hand. Without the backdoor outs, I think I fold, but the backdoor outs, I think, swing it to a 3-bet.

Good Luck

cepstrum

[nepenthe]

Well I'm certainly not folding. I put at least one of them on a top pair, the other one on either a straight draw, middle pair or possibly a flopped set. It's more likely than not that my overcard outs are clean, and considering the nut straight / nut flush possibilities I 3-bet and gauge their reactions, intending to call a cap. I'm seeing this through the turn at the very least no matter what.

[tipperdog]

Raise. Your opponents aren't likely giving you much respect at this point since your button raise screams "steal."

It's likely (though far from certain) that your overcards are outs. Your backdoor draws (both to the nuts), are certainly live, but obviously, you shouldn't be calling here for backdoor value only. But when you combine both the overcard and backdoor value, I think it's too much to muck.

If you raise, two very positive things might happen:

1. There is a slight chance that you'll win the pot. I wouldn't bank on it, but it's a nice added benefit.

2. (And more importantly), you might buy a free card on the turn, giving you an extra shot to spike and A or K if the next card misses you completely.

[Steve Giufre]

I think this one is a lot closer than some of you are sugesting. There are times I would fold in this spot. I think the amount of times you will push your oppenents off a better hand with a turn bet is being over estimated. I'm not saying it's a clear fold, I'm saying it's close.

[J.A.Sucker]

This is always a somewhat strange situation, since a "real hand" from the SB would checkraise you, so he likely has a weak hand or maybe a 5 (though he could have A2). The BB raising suggests a decent but not huge hand, since he may try to tie you along with a hand like KJ or the like. However, a hand that he could have is A5.

It's almost certain that you're drawing here, but the question is to how many outs? The backdoor straight and flush possibilities are good, but how clean are your A outs? I don't really think that they're very clean. The K is more likely to be a "good" out, as are your backdoor outs, obviously. Also, the chances of you folding out the BB, who likely has the best hand, are small. If you think that you can get a free turn, then 3 betting the best play, but against more savvy opponents, you should consider folding here. If I had KcQc then 3 betting is a better play, IMO, since all of your outs are likely clean. In a typical 30 game, I fold.

[Steve Giufre]

I agree completely. A lot of time in this situation the ace won't be an out. I think most people who want to three bet the flop and follow through on the turn are figuring they will get the best hand to lay down a lot more often than they will. In a typical 30 game, unless you have a squeaky tight image, and are up agaist a real soft player, you'll be called down by any jack almost every time. I think the best play is probably fold, follwed by three betting and checking the turn. It's far too tough to push two guys off thier hands in this spot, oppenents are too paraniod of people making moves on them in these games to lay down the top pair. Also, some of the time, the SB is gonna lead out with a big hand like 45,44, or 55, and you are gonna be in real bad shape.

[slavic]

With the players I play, the BB is very likey trying to push me off my hand with A rag after the SB bet his small pair. They may each have monsters but they don't need it to throw lots of flack at the pot and folding will just open me up to resteal mania.

I 3 bet.

As a side note, with the ravenous defending of the blinds that goes on now, I don't steal as much from the button. I tend to do it more from the CO or LMP. It's a little riskier but people respect that open more. Thoughts?

[Steve Giufre]

Hey Slavic,

I agree, you'll get a little more respect rasing from the cutoff. I think the more important factor should be how well your oppennets in the blinds play postflop. If it's someone who is gonna fold for one bet on the flop a lot of the time without putting up much of a struggle, I'll probably raise a few more hands.

[elysium]

hi mr. sklansky
since i won't have an opportunity to check-raise on the turn, and that furthermore, my best chance of getting control of this is right now on the flop, i'm going to reraise here. i want to get heads up against the BB if i can, and hopefully, if it gets bad on the turn, get a free-card. i'm going to reraise here every time, without question.

i hope that you and mason do more essays soon. the last group of essays was great. yours in particular simplifying the math somewhat, really allows for faster better decisions at the table. the only thing though is that i don't remember which one of the 2+2 books includes the math formulas required. yes, of course i've devised a quick and simple math formula for determing with some measure of reliability the odds on draws, but you bring up something in the newer essays that i really haven't gotten into a whole lot; considering how the equations change when taking into consideration how a particular hand has been played. i have a fog about it, with some shadow and light flashes that has enabled me to 'mist grope' where i'm at in a hand a little. kinda like the star spangled banner. sometimes now, raises red glare willing, i just seem to know what to do better, but how the math is getting through i can't tell you. after reading the newer essays, while mathematically i'm still like the hamster on a circular treadmill, my cage, nevertheless, as a whole is moving incrementally forward due to the commotional vibration my effort toward math has given to my over-all game. and now i think i'm starting to get this.

if i turn and run the other way, and there is no corresponding change of direction in cage movement, well, then my game is sliding, and i will need that book now.

[Tommy Angelo]

"All fold to you on button where you raise with AK of clubs. Both blinds call. Typical 30-60 players. The flop is Jc5h4s. Small blind bets. Big blind raises. Now what?"

Against some opponents I would fold to one bet on the flop. Against others I would call two-cold on the flop with an eye toward calling all the way down unimproved if it seemed appropriate. Against others I would threebet the flop and fold to a turn bet, or check behind on the turn and maybe call a river bet. But mostly I'd be trying to make a flush.

Tommy