Flush Draw: Raise on Turn?

[Ed Miller]

The problem with your analysis is that you gave your opponents unrealistically good hands. When your opponents' hands are better than average, you'd be better off focusing on making the flush (because you HAVE to make a good hand to win).

Just giving someone a king is far too generous. The whole point is, no one may have a king and you may win without a showdown or by spiking a jack. Hell, your ace-high may STILL be the best hand.

The problem, it seems to me, is that while a raise might shut out a hand like AsQs that has outs against your draws, it might also shut out hands like the QQ or JJ that do not impact your equity in any way, shape or form.

Hell yeah they impact your equity if they fold. They fold... then everyone else folds... then you win. Or they fold... then the only hand left is a draw that misses, and your ace-high wins.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't matter which is "more likely." Even if your flush won the pot 100x more often than overcards, when comparing two plays, you compare the DIFFERENCE between them. Your flush is gonna win whether you bet out or check-raise. The DIFFERENCE between the two plays is how often you win when you don't make your flush. So who cares how often the flush will come in?

[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is also how large the pot will be if your flush draw comes through. You'd rather have a 40% chance of winning an 18 BB pot than a 50% chance of winning a 12 BB pot.

[ QUOTE ]
2. To set up a turn semi-bluff. You'd like to win this large pot without having to make your hand. Your chances of doing that are MUCH better if you check-raise the flop. You are far more likely to win without a showdown against one or two opponents than against three or four. This is also why you should follow up with a turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The semi-bluff angle is the single best reason to make the check-raise play, IMHO. However, the likelihood of a semi-bluff working at microlimits is minimal.

[ QUOTE ]
3. You clean up your ace and jack outs. You want to be able to win the pot by spiking an ace or jack. You are much more likely to win if you protect your hand now.

[/ QUOTE ]

There would be value in shutting out, specifically, A5, A2 and AQ, and to a lesser extent, another AJ. A hand like AT would be making an incorrect call against yours.

I don't understand the point about cleaning up your J outs, since you have the nut kicker with your jack, and since KJ will almost never fold here.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with your analysis is that you gave your opponents unrealistically good hands. When your opponents' hands are better than average, you'd be better off focusing on making the flush (because you HAVE to make a good hand to win).

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give me a plausible distribution of hands in which your increase in showdown equity would be much larger than the 7 percent as in my AQ/JJ example? (I'm willing to concede the point that showdown equity is not the same as equity, if there's some possibility of inducing a better hand to fold).

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the point about cleaning up your J outs, since you have the nut kicker with your jack, and since KJ will almost never fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure, but I understand "cleaning up your outs" in this case to mean getting A2/A5/J2/J5 to fold? Include AQ in that list?

[Ed Miller]

Can you give me a plausible distribution of hands in which your increase in showdown equity would be much larger than the 7 percent as in my AQ/JJ example?

Any set of hands where ace-high is currently the best hand.

[bernie]

Could you imagine some guys emotions if he pulled the c/r, got JJ out, and caught a J on the river to win over a mid pair. That would be pretty entertaining in itself. Not to mention, profitable.

b

[Ed Miller]

The difference is also how large the pot will be if your flush draw comes through. You'd rather have a 40% chance of winning an 18 BB pot than a 50% chance of winning a 12 BB pot.

Yes, but surely you realize that the AVERAGE DIFFERENCE in the size of the final pot is NOWHERE NEAR 6 BB.

The semi-bluff angle is the single best reason to make the check-raise play, IMHO. However, the likelihood of a semi-bluff working at microlimits is minimal.

This is just silly. People do OCCASIONALLY fold a pair, you know. Not every hand is like four people to the showdown.

There would be value in shutting out, specifically, A5, A2 and AQ, and to a lesser extent, another AJ. A hand like AT would be making an incorrect call against yours.

Even AT isn't that bad off calling you, at least as long as he has the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He's got three outs as long as no one has a king.

I don't understand the point about cleaning up your J outs, since you have the nut kicker with your jack, and since KJ will almost never fold here.

This is not about "cleaning up your outs." It's just about winning more often if you spike a jack. You could spike a jack and lose to someone who rivers a queen. You could also spike a jack and lose to someone who rivers a gutshot, or some other hand. Point is, sometimes you will make one pair, but still lose. Check-raising lowers that chance.

Ok, since this line of thinking isn't helping you understand, try this one:

Assume your opponents all have relatively poor hands. Either no pair or one small pair, the lot of them. In that case, which option, betting out or check-raising, is better?

Check-raising is WAY better in that case, and it's not close. Everyone one of those no pair goobers has at least four outs to beat you, and some will have five. Check-raising may get some of those small pairs to fold if you don't have the best hand. It VASTLY improves your chance to win the pot.

Yes, if someone has a king, check-raising and betting out run reasonably close... maybe betting out might even be a little better. But if everyone has poor hands, check-raising is far far better. THAT'S why you check-raise.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Assume your opponents all have relatively poor hands. Either no pair or one small pair, the lot of them. In that case, which option, betting out or check-raising, is better?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what it comes down to is that check-raising is better if:

a) You currently hold the best hand, or,
b) By check-raising, you could fold out all hands better than yours as of the flop.

I don't consider either of these events to be terribly likely, which I think is the source of a lot of our disagreement.

What I take issue with is the notion that check-raising is better than betting out when you don't have the best hand, because of the potential that it provides you to fold out other nth best hands. That notion is sometimes correct; it is not correct on this board with a nut flush draw.

Suppose that you know that the MP player who bet into you has T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. There is one other opponent who is considering calling; he holds 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and would call for one bet, but not for two.

Do you want him to stay in the hand?

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b...+Jc%0D%0A5d+7d

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b...%0AAc+Jc%0D%0A

7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has 13.1% equity with this flop, when against the hands T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and your A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (and would be correct to call one bet). Of that 13.1%, he takes 11.9% of it from TT, and just 1.2% of it from your hand. The opponent who holds TT would like him to fold, but YOU would like him to call. The parlay of your hand improving, but his hand re-drawing to beat yours, is just too unlikely to be worth worrying about.

I agree that this particular hand presents an interesting opportunity. The PFR passed on his opportunity to bet, as did everyone else except for a loose player acting immediately before you who could easily have something like a draw. The texture of this board is pretty unusual, in that it would be hard for someone to call two bets without a K, a set, or an inferior flush draw. The check-raise might well be the best play, given the action once it gets back around to him. The trouble is that, the vast majority of the time, the action won't go anything like this, and you'd be foolish to expect that it would. Somebody will have a king, or the PFR will bet, or MP will have made some kind of hand.

[Nemesis]

I like the way you played this. I would be afraid that raising again on the turn may knock out your overcaller and simply cost you another bet to earn the same ammount you would if your flush or an ace (maybe) hits.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
giving free cards with a strong draw (but a weak made hand, ace-high) in a big pot is a generally a BIG no-no.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is it really? I always thought you wanted free cards with a big draw and weak made hand. Give me a free turn in this hand and I take it everytime. You're saying this is wrong? Damn you for making me question what I thought I "knew". [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]