50-100 - Is having a third nut good?

[astroglide]

i still like JJ and TT over 99, i was just listing my ranking. for what it's worth, that's over 175,000 hands.

[Gamblor]

Let's examine the kinds of hands that will cold-call your raise in this game, with position.

Keep in mind that some, if not all, play well post-flop.

Twodimes says:

pokenum -h td th - as js - kc qd - qc tc - 8s 8h
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Td Th 150160 17.65 692055 81.35 8453 0.99 0.181
As Js 276922 32.55 571894 67.23 1852 0.22 0.326
Kc Qd 182946 21.51 661426 77.75 6296 0.74 0.218
Qc Tc 78418 9.22 759353 89.27 12897 1.52 0.099
8s 8h 149325 17.55 699491 82.23 1852 0.22 0.176

You are getting 4.5-1 to make this raise (against 4 opponents, plus the SB).

Yet, you're only getting 0.181, which translates to about 5.5-1 to win the hand.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Ulysses]

Change QcTc to QcJc and that 18% jumps to 25%. Giving one of your opponents a Ten has a huge impact on this sim.

[J_V]

yeah but when you get 4-5 players, they are out of lunch. Good hands aren't dealt often enough.

[David Steele]

I wasn't informing you about the book of course, I know you have said it again. I was pointing out that Andy's example was 3 handed not 4 handed where the book suggests avoding it. At least we should look at an actual example.

When I look at 4 handed sims, it doesn't convince me that the raise is right. Neither does anointing 10's as the 5th best hand in holdem.

D.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
is 22 the 13th best hand in hold em?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's the 70th best hand in holdem. Do you see why?

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually forgot AKs. So the 6th best hand. TT is better than AKo though.

[/ QUOTE ]

CM,

This is probably splitting hairs, but I believe that AQs is about 0.01 EV over TT. Almost dead even.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
i still like JJ and TT over 99, i was just listing my ranking. for what it's worth, that's over 175,000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
When you say 'ranking' that implies you would rather have 99 than TT or JJ. If that's not what you meant, fine.

As for the fact that it's over 175,000 hands, I don't doubt that those results are statistically accurate (reasonably so). But knowing that, I think you need to ask yourself "whay aren't I winning more with JJ and TT?" There's no plausible reason to not, except need for improvement.

I'm not saying anything against your overall winrate, or that you're not capable of playing those hands for a good profit. But when you know you can make more BB/ hand with 99, then you should realize you're doing somthing wrong (or at least not as right) with JJ and TT.

Savy?

[AJo Go All In]

not that i don't agree with you, but this doesn't really convince me that raising is right. of course you are in because JJ is a wildly profitable hand you would be rich very soon if you were dealt it every time. that doesn't mean that you wouldn't make more by limping.

[Luke]

[ QUOTE ]
Twodimes says:

pokenum -h td th - as js - kc qd - qc tc - 8s 8h
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Td Th 150160 17.65 692055 81.35 8453 0.99 0.181
As Js 276922 32.55 571894 67.23 1852 0.22 0.326
Kc Qd 182946 21.51 661426 77.75 6296 0.74 0.218
Qc Tc 78418 9.22 759353 89.27 12897 1.52 0.099
8s 8h 149325 17.55 699491 82.23 1852 0.22 0.176


[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon. How often will you get tens and 4 players at your table will have hands this good? It's just not happening very often. If the opponents in the game are only cold calling with hands this good, then you don't have to worry about playing a 5-way pot when raising TT because it will very RARELY happen.

Here's a sim with 2 of your opponents cold calling with 2 good hands:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=289275
pokenum -h ts td - ac 9c - ks qh
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Td 516653 37.69 850951 62.08 3150 0.23 0.378
Ac 9c 425067 31.01 942537 68.76 3150 0.23 0.311
Ks Qh 425884 31.07 941720 68.70 3150 0.23 0.311

That's not great for TT, but you still have better than your share of pot equity.

If I make one of the cold callers have an underpair, TT does a bit better:

pokenum -h ts td - ac jc - 7s 7h
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Td 586625 42.80 781395 57.00 2734 0.20 0.429
Ac Jc 535556 39.07 832464 60.73 2734 0.20 0.391
7s 7h 245839 17.93 1122181 81.87 2734 0.20 0.180

And here you have 4 opponents calling with 4 reasonable hands:

pokenum -h ts td - ac 9c - ks qh - 5s 5c - 8s 6s
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Td 225242 26.48 624623 73.43 803 0.09 0.265
Ac 9c 193657 22.77 656208 77.14 803 0.09 0.228
Ks Qh 188050 22.11 661815 77.80 803 0.09 0.221
5s 5c 132295 15.55 717570 84.35 803 0.09 0.156
8s 6s 110621 13.00 739244 86.90 803 0.09 0.130


If your opponents are playing reasonably and 4 of them are calling your EP raise preflop, then these hands are a closer representation to what they might have than your sim. I actually think your opponents may have worse cards if you are consistently seeing 5 way raised pots, but I don't need to make the hands any worse and TT still has strong pot equity.

Of course, this boils down to me thinking raising TT in EP is the play in almost any game.

Luke