boring aces hand

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
You admit your logic was backwards though right? Also, I didnt think we could sanely call a river 3-bet anyways here.



[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think it is. Flop raises and reraises in a pot that big are essentially meaningless, especially when a maniac is involved. The only street that lets us know if a set is out is the turn, and the turn action clearly indicates that no one has a set.

[Vehn]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree w/ the 0% and certainly disagree w/ the leaving 1-5 bets on the table.

The fact taht the SB thought a long time and led the river, makes me believe he wanted to re-raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say the SB thought for a long time on the turn, he pretty quickly called after I raised the turn. The LP player thought for a while before coldcalling 2 bets on the turn.

[HiatusOver]

Clark answer this question for me. Why is SB betting the river with his hand when the top card pairs, he was raised on the turn which he only called and there are 3 people with 2 cards still to act behind him? You still put him on KK with this bet? It seems like he is pretty confident in his hand and I am not sure how he could be confident that KK or QQ can beat Vehn at this point

[mikelow]

Just go for the overcall here. The bettor could have a jack, possibly a full house. So you don't want to get too involved on the turn. Do you really want to put in three river bets on this hand?

[cosmo kramer]

I think I have to agree with Clark that Vehn's hand is probably good (or the SB has the other AA) and to raise the river. I don't think the SB, "a kid trying to play well" 4-bets in the worst position preflop with 99, 88 or 33. My guesses for the hands are:

SB-KK
Vehn-AA (guaranteed to get that one right)
Maniac-10-10
LP-QQ

The one hand I would be worried about is J10s, which could be held by either the maniac or LP. However, if anyone has this hand, I think it would be the LP.

Just a guess from a low-limit player.

[cosmo kramer]

Also, I think there is a less than 5% chance Vehn gets raised by a BETTER hand. Nobody knows Vehn has AA. He's played it like either 99, 88 or 33. Anyone with a Jack will not raise for fear of a full house. So the raise on the river will get called by worse hands and have little chance of being raised by better hands.

[HiatusOver]

The "Kid TRYING to play well" also has a sweater behind him he is trying to impress. You dont impress sweater's by folding 88 or 99 pre-flop when a maniac and loose-passive are involved. Capping with either of those hands is far from out of the question from this player as it was described. Also STILL noone has answered the question of why this guy decides to call the turn and then bet the river through the jack pairing with KK.

[DcifrThs]

haven't read any posts yet but here goes:

i think you have a good shot at winning this pot. its a big pot. you don't want to have to call a reraise. i call here and expect to take it down much more than if i raised and there is enough value in the pot already that paying too much to see a showdown here is not what i'd want to do (or not seeing a showdown at all).

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

hmm....but raising the turn? clark vs. hiatus
-Barron

[Nelson]

I would call - and hope that LP doesn't raise.