flop a set, fold a set

[Eric P]

never folding a set is rediculous, especially when the river comes, 4 diamonds

[Eric P]

explain how you folded this set on the turn? His actions lead to him having the nut flush almost certainly and your pot odds are much more than enough to make this final call, folding here was a total disaster i think. please explain?

[J.A.Sucker]

You obviously didn't read my post correctly. I'll fold in the (rare) situations where I know I'm beaten. The two main times this is true are when there's a four card straight and a four-card flush, and it's a multiway pot on the river. I've also folded the under full house when it's obvious that I'm beaten.

[Eric P]

what about 2% says it's likely?

I still don't understand how you can fold this mike, 2 more bets to win a whole lot, or just 1 more to try and fill up, if you don't think your draw is live i still think you need to try and hit it, just don't raise if you D? this pot to big to turn your bback on in this marginal situation

[Depraved]

I'd only make this raise/fold play if I knew the player had me beat with a higher set for sure. I mean close to 100% sure.

[mike l.]

i will get to the results later. first some comments on my thinking.

when i went for the checkraise on the turn i felt my hand might still be best, and that if it wasnt i would be reraised on the turn. i figured if cutoff had the nut flush draw (and i assumed that KdJd was the only flush draw he could possibly have, and even then not likely) he would cap the flop w/ 2 players in and decent position. so i figured i wanted to charge him if he had two big pair (AK, AQ, KQ), but get away from my hand if i was drawing one from dead against AA, KK, or the less likely QQ (since he couldnt have Qd). i figured that with the flush out there and the all in player going all in he could not 3 bet the turn w/ less than a set and doesnt seem like the type tricky/smart/daring enough to make the turn reraise w/ AxKd. so when he reraised the turn i figured i was dead and dropped out. this was not a move i was planning on making when i went for the turn checkraise, but the non-acting way in which he quite confidently reraised this protected pot on turn led me to make what i was feeling was a terrific laydown.

so was it?

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
what about 2% says it's likely?

[/ QUOTE ]

My post was poorly worded. I meant it's unlikely that his opponent has a set.

[AJo Go All In]

sounds like a case of BLS to me. big laydown syndrome. we've all had it before.

[spamuell]

the non-acting way in which he quite confidently reraised this protected pot ...

Wasn't there something on here a couple of days ago about "the most reliable tell in middle limit hold'em"? That if someone confidently reraises, they're either very strong or very weak. It's almost impossible he's very weak here.

But if he had a set, he might put in a reraise but in a less confident manner, no? Because he's slightly worried that he doesn't have the flush, and he doesn't have a diamond. Wouldn't bother with the act though.

If he had the KJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flush, he might raise more confidently, knowing that at this point he has the nuts and that that raise cannot possibly be wrong, even against a tough player.

Maybe I misunderstood that post - I don't play middle limit hold'em, although I intend to some day (I'm still young).

Anyway, if you're acting on a one-off read of an individual opponent at a specific time, no one here can tell you whether this was a "terrific laydown". Although, because of the huge pot, I suspect it wasn't.

[shemp]

So he can have AA(3 ways) and KK (3 ways) or KdJd (1 way) -- horrible fold. Save a fold here for the river if you don't improve.