I, uh, fold?!? Yeah, I fold! - Page 3

stranglin · #21 01-26-2004, 11:19 PM

Perhaps I'm not very good, as I just started playing higher limits, but I am confused about one thing. No one has mentioned the fact that even if he calls, it's no guarantee that's all he'll have to pay to get to the flop. Pot's been raised twice and depending on the casino, can be raised once or twice more. That being said, I would still call because I'm not that quick on my feet or good enough to fold good pocket cards.

tiger1 · #22 01-26-2004, 11:41 PM

I fold. It it weren't for the cold caller it may be a call. Sounds like your either tied, dominated, or drawing thin with AK.

Why the hell would you play any pocket pair for three bets out of position if you know you are up against AT LEAST 1 big pair and you must catch your set on the flop?

Even if you do catch your set you can easily lose on the turn or river or set over set. It will probably get even more expensive on the flop as well with all the action if you want to stay for the turn or catch a drawing flop for your hand.

Question to ask yourself: Would you cold call 3 bets with AKo if you were in late position?

glen · #23 01-27-2004, 12:44 AM

Maybe "light" is not the right word, but if one is using QQ as a minimum 3 betting hand, that's clearly not correct. . .

elysium · #24 01-27-2004, 03:45 AM

hi dave
good post. you are in crippled out territory but i think you should call if the UTG doesn't look like he's going to 4 bet it and the field behind the EP's are not calling station types that will stay in with anything to the bitter end. you need some reasonable expectation of getting this heads up on the turn if you flop. lacking a field of players who like to see the flop but who then drop unless they they hit the flop solidly, i think you can fold. but i'm not sure about this. personally, i never make this fold. i like to see the flop and then try to out play my opponents. however, a fold in certain situations might be o.k. i think when you have strength up front and calling stations menacing from the rear, the AKo can be mucked for 2 cold pre-flop. not sure though. i think you must get it heads up on the turn if you do decide to play.

David Sklansky · #25 01-27-2004, 03:57 AM

It's close. But only because you are in the big blind. You will definitely lose signicant money if you call. But you might average losing a tad less, EV wise than the size of the BB.

Diplomat · #26 01-27-2004, 04:16 AM

This is a very good point. I'd hate to see the flop here for 4 or 5 bets, and by that point it is almost manditory that you see the turn, even if you miss (within reason).

-Diplomat

ike · #27 01-27-2004, 04:26 AM

This isn't totally true, particularly not when the people with aces and kings started the hand behind. Say you're up against 77, AQ and KJ or something. Getting extra money when you hit is nice, but only having 4 outs to beat the pocket pair is seriously bad.

DiamondDave · #28 01-27-2004, 05:27 AM

When the pot is going to get big, offsuit high cards aren't that great. It doesn't matter why the pot is getting big. Maybe it's a loose game, maybe lots of people were dealt pretty cards. Bottom line - people are going to chase, so often it will take a strong hand to win. TP/TK on the flop often comes in second when several players go to the river.

If it had been AKs, I would have played the hand for sure.

DiamondDave · #29 01-27-2004, 05:50 AM

In the Bay Area, one bet + three raises = capped action. There is no five-betting in a multiway pot.

Three bets or four bets, it's all good. If I'm in, I'm in and I'm raising. If the question is do I wanna be in for five bets or for three bets, then the information structure in a tough game gets a bit richer, and holdem becomes a bit more interesting. (We play 1 bet & 4 raises in our 1/2 home game.)

Around here, it seems to be "common knowledge" that a "solid player" who calls three cold but does not cap the betting at 4 bets in a pot contested by three of fewer players "must'a had 99 or AK". AQs or JJ would be plausible. A passive guy might play QQ like that. A rookie might play ATs like that. But there seems to be a set of starting hand for which the conventional wisdom is "call three cold but do not cap it".

If certain players call three cold and bet the flop when an ace hits, I know they have either a set or TP/TK. I can safely fold something like QQ. The guessing game I play would become much more difficult they'd only invest one more small bet preflop with hands like AQs.

So, if I play the hand, I cap the betting and lead out on the flop 100% of the time.

So playing this hand in this spot will add little or no EV and a lot of variance.

So I fold.