When do you start to suspect a site?

[rusty JEDI]

Yes

So far you fit the "type" perfectly. You come in here talking about how much you've been winning playing the biggest limits that X site has to offer. Then a short while later you hit either A, a bad run or B, your actual abilities as before you were just running good.

However with your conspiracy twist thrown in it is now undecided wether you are headed the way of the onlinechamp or into kookdom. But like i said in my first post you could be legit and time will tell.

At least in the biography of your perfect life you were able to see the pattern that has emerged. That is probably a good sign that maybe you are ready to stick to something.

[DesertEagle]

I have a quick question to ask, and that is - how bad do u tilt when u take one of these "bad-beats"?

Your performance the previous month was impressive, but I think we're all great players when the cards are falling our way (as I assume they were if you were beating 15/30 games for 2BB/hr with limited experience). It's how much $$ we save when the cards go cold that separates a great player from a good player.

I know when I started out I'd hit wicked cold streaks, but I'd play super agressive with mediocre cards anyway, and I'd throw off 100's of BB in the process.

I know u don't like these type of responses, and I know some other posters are not as polite as I am, but isn't it just as likely that your big month the month before was the annomally?

It sounds like your bank-roll is in good shape, so just keep playing your best poker and don't waste your time with conspiracy theories...

Also, if you aren't running well at Party right now, why not try someplace else?

I frequently switch sites during bad runs of cards... silly superstitious person I am, but it makes me feel better...

Good luck at the tables..

and go Bron-Bron [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


D-Eagle

[redsimon]

Don't know if someone else has said it already... but it's that old sod variance....

[CrackerZack]

Your type, lost and irresponsible. I hope you find something you like or at least will do responsibly. I'm jealous of the Europe travel thing though.

Party probably flagged you as a winner. Ask oldfish all about it.

[CrackerZack]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, whenever someone admits to having a bad time of it, people on this forum treat you like you have leprosy. Worse, they treat you like a child or invalid who doesn't know that he has leprosy.

[/ QUOTE ]

but you're not admitting that you're having a bad time of it, you're asking if party poker is cheating and if you should suspect it. How do they choose who to cheat? How do they cheat? I understand that there should be suspicion taken with any online site but the things to really worry about are them running off with your money (like pokerspot) or playing bots (like propoker), not the deck set against you by a machine because you've either done well, or not, or because you're from XYZ country, or etc etc.

[Nottom]

Its not much but it gives you enough data to at least get a range of where your WinRate should be. Also SD converges much faster than does your winrate so it's a pretty safe assumption to think that you true SD is in the 12-13 range.

From the information you give your true winrate is 90% likely to be between .37 - 3.73BB/Hour given only your previous numbers.

Counting this months poor performance it looks more like. -0.8 - 2.0 BB/Hour

Based on the overlap a winrate of 1 to 1.5 BB/Hour is likely so your estimates are probably correct if you have previos data to base them on.


If you are a 1BB/Hr Player with an SD of 13 a loss of 150BB over 100hours is about a 2SD event over that timeframe so its going to happen about 5% of the time over any 100Hr period. If you are a 1.5BB/hour Winner than you are looking at more like a 3% occurance.

[daryn]

yassou! i am trying to learn greek as well, my girl is from crete

[Copernicus]

It looks like every $ related decision youve made has been
-EV. Why should poker be any different?

[ResidentParanoid]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, whenever someone admits to having a bad time of it, people on this forum treat you like you have leprosy. Worse, they treat you like a child or invalid who doesn't know that he has leprosy. Its very frustrating. I'm not saying thats true of you at all; just generally this is true. I admit to doing this myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't call it the Zoo because everyone here is level-headed and analytic in their responses. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ResidentParanoid]

[ QUOTE ]
Also SD converges much faster than does your winrate

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just plain wrong.