Hand reading Exercise - Page 3

Duke · #21 11-09-2003, 01:46 PM

I don't know if he mucks 33 without showing.

~D

Mason Malmuth · #22 11-09-2003, 04:10 PM

Hi doggin:

I think you should fold if he bets the turn. You may only be drawing to split the pot.

Best wishes,
Mason

Mason Malmuth · #23 11-09-2003, 04:17 PM

Hi MG:

If he has a small pair, he would have some chance to win at the river. Thus he should hold his hand.

best wishes,
Mason

Mason Malmuth · #24 11-09-2003, 04:21 PM

Hi Rick:

Thanks for the nice comments

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a clue. Nothing makes sense. I'm hoping you made a typo

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear the games at The Bike are extremely good. Is that still the case? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Best wishes,
Mason

Mason Malmuth · #25 11-09-2003, 04:24 PM

Hi Everyone:

This one's fairly easy and I see that some of you got it right. When my opponent throws his hand away it means that he has absolutely no chance of winning. So eight high is probably as good as his hand can be.

But he must have had something that he perceived as having value to make the call on the flop. This can only leave a holding like a three flush and a three straight. 75 suited or 54 suited look like very good candidates.

Best wishes,
Mason

Rick Nebiolo · #26 11-09-2003, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I hear the games at The Bike are extremely good. Is that still the case?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is definitely on the upswing while the Asian section struggles (the Asian games struggle all over town as the Indian Casinos get closer with similar games). Certain key games struggle but 20/40 stud/8, 30/60 OE, and 10/20 holdem are all doing well along with Yosh Nokano's big game. We are now getting regular restricted buy in ($100) no limit games every day. These are no limit games that don't burn up the players; rather they attract new customers turned on by the WPT.

The green chip games are also doing better and the casino is generally full nights and weekends. I'm hoping we can make further improvements on the collection front (i.e., get rid of front loading on drop in low limit) and that should help things even more.

Regards,

Rick

mike l. · #27 11-09-2003, 05:03 PM

"But he must have had something that he perceived as having value to make the call on the flop. This can only leave a holding like a three flush and a three straight. 75 suited or 54 suited look like very good candidates."

how far from incorrect was his call? about how many small bets would you say would need to be in the pot for him to make this call if he were closing the action? and how about much of a chance would he need to have to bet or checkraise you off your hand to add value to this clearly incorrect but interesting to think about call?

mikelow · #28 11-09-2003, 05:14 PM

Wouldn't a double backdoor draw be only an 8 or 9% chance?

So the call made by Mason's opponent was a bad one. No wonder he's running so good. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Coilean · #29 11-09-2003, 05:15 PM

mike,

You make a winning hand about 10% of the time with a hand like 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, so you need to make back 10 times your investment to make a call profitable. Assuming you don't make any semibluff raises or anything and your opponent bets the turn 80% of the time, calling the flop leads to a correct turn call (turned flush and/or open ended straight draw) on 16 cards, which means you are on average paying 1SB + 16/47*80%*2SB = 1.54SB to see the river. So, in this case you should want about 10*1.54SB = 15.4SB in the pot on the flop to call 1 more bet exclusively on the 3 straight/flush with no top pair potential.

As for semibluffing, if you can pick up the pot 30% of the time with a turn bet when one of the 16 good cards hits, and all other factors hold constant (i.e. you would have gotten a free card 20% of the time), then could look at this as adding an effective 0.3(16/47)(+7.7SB) - 0.7(16/47(0.2)(2SB)) = 0.69SB to the pot in implied odds, which doesn't really change the equation much. In reality, it shouldn't even add this much since sometimes your semibluff will get raised and you will have to call with your 8-15 outs.

Mason Malmuth · #30 11-10-2003, 12:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Poker is definitely on the upswing while the Asian section struggles (the Asian games struggle all over town as the Indian Casinos get closer with similar games).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Rick:

That's good to hear. Years ago when I lived in LA it was during the time that the Asian games first appeared and I saw the damage that they did to the regular poker games. It's good to hear that the pendulum is finally moving the other way.

Best wishes,
Mason