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#21
10-07-2003, 07:20 PM
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Re: The answer is 16
[ QUOTE ]
The key to solving this problem is having a good grasp on exactly how dumb a given sample of people are. [/ QUOTE ] Heh. Just like so many other things in life. 
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#22
10-07-2003, 09:58 PM
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Re: The answer is 16
Sorry, I dont buy it.
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#23
10-08-2003, 03:07 AM
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Re: interesting problem
Since we have no replacement of numbers the number of players should change the number.
So if we have 100 players 33 is correct. With 20 players the number could float between 13 and 60ish So the greater the number of players the more correct 33 is and the fewer the players the more the range opens. In a 2 person game it woulds always be correct to choose 0.
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#24
10-08-2003, 03:30 AM
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Re: interesting problem
The answer will be around 16. I would say most of the kids in the class will not care and just write a number down at random getting you a mean of 50. 2/3 of that is between 16-17. Some people will try to figure it out and will pick a lower number which will lower the answer slightly. I might adjust my answer down to 10-15....If the class thinks like me then the answer would be 5 or 6 entire. If you go to one of those smart school the it could be 0 or 1.
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#25
10-08-2003, 03:33 AM
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Irony
[ QUOTE ]
The answer will be around 16. I would say most of the kids in the class will not care and just write a number down at random getting you a mean of 50. 2/3 of that is between 16-17. Some people will try to figure it out and will pick a lower number which will lower the answer slightly. I might adjust my answer down to 10-15....If the class thinks like me then the answer would be 5 or 6 entire. If you go to one of those smart school the it could be 0 or 1. [/ QUOTE ]
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#26
10-08-2003, 05:41 AM
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Re: interesting problem
Response from an Economist who has done this in a classroom setting:
"I actually have had students do this a few times. Usually the winning number is close to two-thirds of two-thirds of half the maximum allowed answer. So when I said they could give me any number between 1 and 100, The average answer was around 50. Two-thirds of 50 is 33. The last two times I played this game the winner guessed something close to 22 or thereabouts. The answer reflects what the respondent thinks other players are thinking. Apparently most people thought the rest of the group would have no idea and guess 50, right in the middle; so a lot of people wrote down two-thirds of 50. But you want to guess two-thirds of the average guess, and that is around 22 if most people guess 33. Weird. Anyway if everyone is "rational" in the game-theoretic sense then the nobody really wins, everyone ties for first-place by guessing zero: 2/3 * 2/3 * .... = 0."
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#27
10-08-2003, 08:58 AM
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Re: The answer is 16
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
The key to solving this problem is having a good grasp on exactly how dumb a given sample of people are. [/ QUOTE ] this is the solution. congratulations ulysses!
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