KK in the big blind - facing a big raise

[tewall]

What if the guy will re-raise all in with KK or 22? In this case you (having raised 30 with AK, AQs, AA-TT) will be making a big mistake against the 90% of the time you're folding against 22.

I like your play with KK by the way. I was just taking issue with the statement that raising all-in with KK allows the opponent to not make a mistake. This statement is only true if he won't play other hands the same way.

[ML4L]

Hey limon,

If you wouldn't mind, could you reconcile some things that you've said...?

1) Others have already pointed this out, but can you explain why an all-in bluff is not a good idea against a player who makes big raises with many hands, but folds everything except AA to a re-raise?

2) For your check-raise plan to work, your opponent must bet the flop. How can you be certain that he won't take a free card, and if he does, what is your plan after he checks the flop?

3) How does the fact that many of the posters here are online players affect the situation in any way?

4) How can a properly constructed mathematical analysis ever not yield the appropriate play (i.e. why do you feel that you are above the laws of math and probability)?

Answering some or all of the above might help we ignorant folks see your point better...

ML4L

[limon]

1) Others have already pointed this out, but can you explain why an all-in bluff is not a good idea against a player who makes big raises with many hands, but folds everything except AA to a re-raise?

I've never met a player like the one you describe. when you have KK your not bluffing. i was describing what to do in a specific situation, not what to do in all situations. for example: if the money was much deeper i would definately re-raise w/my KK.

2) For your check-raise plan to work, your opponent must bet the flop. How can you be certain that he won't take a free card, and if he does, what is your plan after he checks the flop?

A guy who puts 30 into a 6 pot is going to bet the flop. if he doesn't i'll put him on AK and just keep checking it to him then make a bet on the river if no ace comes.

3) How does the fact that many of the posters here are online players affect the situation in any way?

i think it effects it alot. on line players seem to be very linear thinkers. they are not forced to read players so they dont develop a feel for the game.

4) How can a properly constructed mathematical analysis ever not yield the appropriate play (i.e. why do you feel that you are above the laws of math and probability)?

there are many errr...+ev plays which aren't worth the risk. in every game i frequent there are bad players who will get their money in as huge underdogs (guys who put 30 into 6 pots fit this description). i wont do these players the service of getting all my money in with them as a small favorite or possibly an underdog. it's the opportunity cost. in big bet poker if you're playing for small stakes maybe you push every edge but if the stakes are big and you do this your swings will be tremendous. i've lasted many years collecting golden eggs when they come but not trying to kill every goose.

Answering some or all of the above might help we ignorant folks see your point better...

[Copernicus]

"4) How can a properly constructed mathematical analysis ever not yield the appropriate play (i.e. why do you feel that you are above the laws of math and probability)?"

The answer is pretty obvious...it will always yield the appropriate play IF it is properly constructed. The problem is properly constructing it and computing it in your head in the time you have to make an action. A properly constructed model that takes into account the distribution of the hands he is likely to raise to 30 with, some of which need to be weighted by percentages of the time he raises to 30 with them, taking into account the probability that he calls or folds to your all in reraise, taking into account the probability that he checks or bets after a smooth call, taking into account the probability of beating him with whatever hands you put him on, etc etc etc...it simply cannot be constructed properly. The alternatives are approximations or experience. I for one will go with limon's experience (especially since I came up with the same answer with far less experience).

I will disagree with Limon's take that "computer geeks are linear thinkers" however. A large majority of online players are new to the game, and on average dont have experience and feel for the game that B&M players currently have. However, those B&M player were newbies once also, and their thinking was similarly linear when they started out...you have no choice, since it is your only knowledge.