Blind defense - Bringing a knife to a gun fight

[Harv72b]

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And why are you calling a threebet getting like 12-1 to draw to a 20-1 shot? You're not getting the kind of insane implied odds you would need for that. In fact a lot of the time you hit your set on the turn you will still lose to KK or QQ. Spew spew spew.

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Because an aggressive opponent will 3-bet this flop without a K or Q...even without a pair. This is a blind battle, and things often get crazy. He might well decide that AJ (especially with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) is good enough to 3-bet your expected flop raise, and then check to you on the turn when you still call (representing at least 2nd pair). Of course, it's also possible that he'll suspect you of being on a draw and 3-bet the flop, bet the turn with A high thinking it's good. Against a thinking opponent, it becomes even more likely that he'll make a move like this if we raise/fold the flop fairly often in these situations, so calling the 3-bet is also about the metagame.

I also think you're greatly overstating the number of times you make your set on the turn but still lose to KK or QQ, especially given the number of players who will slowplay a flopped set in this scenario (i.e., call your flop raise with the intention of check/raising the turn). This also makes a line of raise the flop/check through the turn/call a river bet reasonable, but with several draws present on this flop I prefer to bet the turn when it's checked to me.

That is an excellent question.
Take a deep breath let some time run down.
Will he fold to a raise? Only if he knows he is beat. He might reraise me.
So its call fold time. The decison now comes down to will the TAG bluff me on the river suffiicently so that the pot odds I am getting are justified.
Most of the time I call realizing that most of the time I will be beat. I think with this guy I could of laid it down. I probably would reserve a call for those TAGs with AFA over 3.
But I have a tough time laying down in the heat of action.
Best

i play at 5/10 and 10/20, and moves like that are pretty rare even there, nevermind 2/4. it takes a tricky opponent to 3bet with AJo in this spot, and i don't even know if i'd recommend it. imo, raising flop, betting turn and taking the free showdown (and folding in the face of agression) is pretty much THE play. minus the folding if i'm up against one of those beautifully stupid "THIS IS HOW REAL MEN STEAL BLINDS!!!!111"-players, then i'll see a showdown no matter what.

[Nick Royale]

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Of course, it's also possible that he'll suspect you of being on a draw and 3-bet the flop, bet the turn with A high thinking it's good.

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What good will it do us, we're folding.

I don't think the intention of the 3-bet is to check the turn often at all and I don't think that possibility justifies a flop call. He'll check the turn only very very rarely.

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calling the 3-bet is also about the metagame.

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I agree, but I think you overestimate the importance at 2/4.

[einbert]

How would you play this flop Nick? Are you with me on folding or you do like the idea of raising for a cheap showdown?

What range of hands do you put this player on when they cap preflop here OOP?

[Nick Royale]

It's very hard to put a player on a range of hands in a situaton like this. Many players are a lot more aggressive when in a blind vs blind situation. I don't think i can narrow his range more than you, it seemed reasonable.

If we assume your range of hands is correct we have the odds to continue. We're about a 3:1 underdog and if we raise the flop and bet the turn for a free sd we'll be getting 6:2 on the money we put into the pot. Plus we might fold better hands such as JJ/TT, which I don't think is impossible for a 2/4-tag. Besides I think villain might be capable of capping lower pairs than Ts.

So I would raise the flop and bet the turn as the last money I put into the pot.

Preflop is fine.

I probably fold this flop after Villain capped preflop, and I definitely don't raise the Turn. That's just spewing unless you have reason to think he's on a stone cold bluff himself (and then why not just call him down?).

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I have a tough time laying down in the heat of action.

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My biggest leak since I've stopped trying to push people off pots with total crap.

[Harv72b]

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Of course, it's also possible that he'll suspect you of being on a draw and 3-bet the flop, bet the turn with A high thinking it's good.

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What good will it do us, we're folding.

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Yeah, that's what I was saying--this line obviously doesn't work if he leads again on the turn with a worse hand.

I haven't played 2/4 in some time, so perhaps I am overestimating the aggression level one might see in a blind steal situation like this. This kind of thing happens pretty regularly on the 5/10 tables I sit on, though, and was almost a given when I was playing 15/30.

I also think that the fact that there are numerous potential draws on this flop makes it more likely that villain will 3bet with a worse hand, whether because he thinks hero is raising on a draw, or because he believes his own draw is strong enough to warrant trying to push hero off of a borderline made hand (which, of course, is what he has).

FWIW, this is how I "translate" the action in a typical blind steal scenario, assuming relatively decent players:

LP open-raise: I have two cards & feel like raising.
SB call: I have a borderline sooted hand, a medium ace, or a small pocket pair, and I don't have the nards to 3-bet. I'm probably calling a flop bet, but will fold the turn if I haven't caught something.
BB call: I have two cards & will check/fold the flop if I miss.
SB/BB 3-bet: I have a decent to good starting hand and I think your openraise is BS.
Flop bet from last raiser: I still have two cards, so I'm betting.
Flop bet from coldcaller: I caught something or I'm hoping you didn't.
Flop raise: You're FOS.
Flop 3-bet: I really do have something. Maybe it's a draw, maybe it's an underpair, maybe it's the nut kicker, but dammit, I've got something! Or maybe I just think you're FOS, too.
Flop cap: Dude, seriously. I've got a hand.