I just don't think he has an ace ... how to play it?

[beachbum]

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its BECAUSE of your crappy image that you should bet. he will check behind marginal hands (lower pairs/high cards) that will likely call if you bet putting you on a draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this an easy fold to a raise? Obviously a river raise usually means strength, but I wonder if some players in these spots wait til the river to bluffraise or raise with a worse hand (3's or a weaker 6) trying to make a move on the LAG. This assumes the CO is aware of hero's LAGgy image.

I seem to have a hard time bet/folding the river when making a thin value bet.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously the chance of him hitting a 7 is remote.

And, I concur that people don't yearn to fold pairs heads up on the river. But the random 15-30 opponent is somewhat more likely to do this than the random 100-200 opponent.

I guess my overall point is that:

1.) Bet, they may fold
and
2.) Bet, they may call

both have merits.

Josh

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I agree that both add to your EV. I'd suggest that "bet, they may call" dominates the equation though, while "bet, they may fold" is all you mentioned in your post. I think you probably already knew that your bet is mostly for value and just didn't mention it in your original post, choosing to focus on the more subtle point.

thanks,
Eric